Cowboys 38, Eagles 21 — Week 7: 204 Yards on the Ground

Dallas beat Philadelphia 38-21 at Lincoln Financial Field on Monday and went to 3-4, after losses to the Buccaneers and Packers. The offense scored on seven of its nine drives, four touchdowns and three Brandon Aubrey field goals from 55, 27 and 24 yards, and never turned the ball over. Down 21-20 late in the third quarter, the Cowboys scored the last 18 points.

The passing game had its best night since Week 2, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures it: 27 pass plays worth +12.0 EPA, +0.45 a play against +0.13 through Week 6. Dak Prescott completed 15 of 27 for 212 yards and three touchdowns, without a sack or an interception. Down 7-3 in the first quarter, third and 8 at his own 31, he went deep right to Ryan Flournoy for 35 yards, +3.7 EPA and 11.8 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win; CeeDee Lamb's 9-yard touchdown on third and 2 finished that drive. George Pickens caught a 21-yarder on third and 3 for the 17-14 lead. Lamb caught 5 of 12 targets for 74 yards and two scores; Flournoy caught all 4 of his for 70.

The run game Smashed, and the yardage leads it: 204 yards on 38 rush plays, the most in any game this season, after 148 in Week 3. Half of the 38 were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for, and they were worth +7.9 EPA, +0.21 a play against -0.02 through Week 6. Javonte Williams ran 25 times for 155 yards and a touchdown, and Tyler Goodson 10 for 38. Up 28-21 early in the fourth, second and 2 at the Dallas 41, Williams went off left tackle for 34 yards to the Philadelphia 25, and the drive ended in Aubrey's 24-yarder for 31-21. In the second quarter, down 14-10, Williams converted fourth and 1 at the Philadelphia 44, and Pickens scored five plays later.

The pass defense had its best game of the season, and EPA per play allowed shows the turn: Philadelphia's 37 pass plays were worth -0.09 a play, against +0.33 allowed through Week 6, and on defense a negative number is good. Only 35.1% succeeded. Tanner McKee completed 23 of 35 for 211 yards, a touchdown and an interception, and was sacked twice, by Quinnen Williams and Donovan Ezeiruaku. Williams's sack on second and 9 at the Philadelphia 17, down 31-21, set up a fourth-and-9 incompletion and a turnover on downs. The defense stopped 7 of 12 third downs.

The run defense gave up more than its standard, and success rate allowed measures it: 44% of Philadelphia's 25 rush plays succeeded, for 121 yards and two touchdowns. They were worth +2.5 EPA, +0.10 a play against -0.01 allowed through Week 6; here positive is bad. Saquon Barkley's 29-yarder on the Eagles' second snap set up his own 8-yard touchdown, and Dameon Pierce ran 14 times for 47 and a 5-yard score. The best stand came at the goal line in the third: first and goal at the 1, Quinnen Williams dropped Pierce for a 3-yard loss, though Makai Lemon caught the touchdown two snaps later.

The game turned on the answer to that score. Down 21-20 with 5:44 left in the third, Dallas went 61 yards. A holding call on Riq Woolen wiped out a third-and-9 incompletion, Flournoy caught 16 yards on first down and Williams ran 9 more. On second and 1 at the Philadelphia 18, Woolen recovered what was ruled a backward pass and ran 73 yards for a touchdown, but replay reversed it to an incomplete pass. Goodson converted third and 1, and Prescott hit Lamb deep left for a 16-yard touchdown, +2.2 EPA and 10.5 points of win probability, then ran in the two-point try for 28-21. Two Eagles possessions later, down 31-21 with 7:55 left, first and 10 at the Dallas 32, DeMarvion Overshown intercepted McKee's throw for Dallas Goedert at the 30, -5.4 EPA and 12.0 points of win probability for Philadelphia. Williams closed it with six straight carries from the 16, the last a 2-yard touchdown.

Last week's notebook asked whether a passing game that came in at +0.20 EPA a play would get back there. It did and then some, at +0.45, a week after -0.14 against the Packers; the motion question waits for the charting. The one to watch next: whether a run game that gained 204 yards here, after no more than 75 in any of the three games before, is a new floor or one night against a defense that had allowed 132 at most.

That's your Cowboys, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Cowboys on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._