Cowboys 30, Cardinals 33 — Week 8: A 17-3 Lead Slips Away

Dallas lost 33-30 in overtime to Arizona at AT&T Stadium on Sunday and fell to 3-5. It led 17-3 with 1:35 left in the third quarter, 24-10 early in the fourth and 30-24 with 1:09 to go, and its win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, reached 96%. The defense took the ball away twice and the offense did not turn it over, but four drives ended in three-and-outs, the last one in overtime.

The passing game was efficient enough and short of its own level, and success rate is the fairest read: 45.5% of its 33 pass plays succeeded, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, had them at +3.3, +0.10 a play against +0.16 through Week 7. Dak Prescott completed 19 of 29 for 195 yards and a touchdown without an interception, and was sacked 4 times, his most in a game this season. CeeDee Lamb caught 7 of 11 for 58, and Ryan Flournoy caught the touchdown, 9 yards on third and 1. George Pickens's 37-yard catch late in the third set up Prescott's 5-yard touchdown scramble for 24-10.

The run game was Muffed, and yards per carry show it: 94 yards on 38 rush plays, 2.5 a carry, with no run longer than 7 yards. Those plays were worth -7.0 EPA, -0.18 a play against +0.03 through Week 7, and 34.2% succeeded. Javonte Williams ran 24 times for 56. On the opening drive he lost 2 on fourth and 1 at the Dallas 32, -4.0 EPA and 11.5 points of win probability. With first and goal at the 2 late in the third, he lost 2, then 1, before Prescott scrambled in. Up 27-24 at the Arizona 20 with 2:07 left, his first-down carry gained nothing, and a sack followed.

The pass defense held one quarterback down and not the other, and EPA per play allowed carries both: Arizona's 48 pass plays came to -0.03 a play, against +0.26 allowed through Week 7. On defense a negative number is good. Jacoby Brissett's 27 pass plays were worth -16.2 EPA, with 4 sacks, two of them in back-to-back snaps in the third quarter for 26 yards, and an interception on third and 11 that was returned 33 yards to the Arizona 5. Williams fumbled at the 2 two snaps later and a teammate recovered in the end zone for 7-0. DeMarvion Overshown forced Zonovan Knight's fumble with 21 seconds left in the half. Gardner Minshew's 21 pass plays were worth +14.7 EPA, 17 of 20 for 188 yards and 3 touchdowns. A roughing-the-passer flag on third and 10 at the Dallas 29 with 2:23 left kept alive the drive that made it 27-24.

The run defense gave up its yards in two pieces, and EPA per play allowed shows the damage: Arizona's 27 rush plays were worth +5.6, +0.21 a play against +0.01 allowed through Week 7; positive is bad here. The 202 yards were the second most allowed this season, but Tyler Allgeier's 63-yard touchdown and 52-yard run made up 115 of them, and only 33.3% of the rushes succeeded. Jeremiyah Love was stopped on fourth and 1 at the Dallas 1 in the first quarter, -4.6 EPA for Arizona and 14.1 points of win probability.

The game turned on the last 69 seconds of regulation. Up 30-24 after Brandon Aubrey's 41-yarder, Dallas kicked off and Arizona started at its own 20 with 1:05 left. Minshew went 80 yards in 8 plays, three of them spikes. Michael Wilson caught throws deep right for 21 and, on third and 5 at the Dallas 40, for 27 to the 13. With 10 seconds left he caught a 13-yard touchdown over the middle, +3.9 EPA for Arizona and 38.7 points of win probability. Chad Ryland missed the extra point wide left. In overtime, after Arizona punted, Prescott threw incomplete for Lamb and was sacked for 7 by Josh Sweat on third and 8, -19.4 points. Arizona drove 44 yards for Ryland's 42-yard winner.

Last week's notebook asked whether a run game that had its biggest day of the season against the Eagles had found a new floor. It had not: 94 yards on 38 plays, at -0.18 a play. The one to watch next: whether the run game gets back to the +0.03 a play it carried through Week 7, and whether a defense that held one quarterback to -0.60 a pass play can close a game against the second.

That's your Cowboys, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Cowboys on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._