Cowboys 27, Colts 23 — Week 9: Flournoy's 46 Yards Set Up the Winner

Dallas won 27-23 at Indianapolis on Sunday and went to 4-5, a week after losing to Arizona in overtime. Spencer Shrader's 50-yard field goal put the Colts ahead 23-20 with 1:41 left; 31 seconds later Javonte Williams scored from the 1. 13 drives produced three touchdowns, two Brandon Aubrey field goals and two giveaways, and the defense took the ball away twice, the last time with 41 seconds left.

The passing game held its standard on a few long throws, and success rate shows how few of the rest worked: 14 of 37 pass plays, 37.8%, were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position, still came to +6.0, +0.16 a play against +0.15 through Week 8. Dak Prescott completed 21 of 34 for 335 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. CeeDee Lamb caught 10 of 16 targets for 195 yards, including a 44-yard touchdown with 28 seconds left in the half for 17-7. Two giveaways offset it: Laiatu Latu's strip-sack in the first quarter set up the Colts' first touchdown, and Lamb's 48-yard catch to the Indianapolis 13 early in the fourth became a fumble on the Colts' challenge.

The run game had its second-best day of the season by EPA per play: 33 rush plays worth +3.8, +0.11 a play against -0.01 through Week 8. 54.5% of them succeeded, for 180 yards, also its second-most, behind the 206 at Philadelphia. Tyler Goodson did the efficient work, 12 carries for 77 yards and +2.6 EPA. Williams ran 20 times for 101 yards and finished at -1.0 EPA, because holding penalties took back his 9-yard and 12-yard runs on the drive that ended in Jake Ferguson's touchdown. His biggest carry came down 23-20 with 1:19 left: second and 10 at the Indianapolis 19, he ran up the middle for 8 yards, and an illegal-use-of-hands foul on Grover Stewart added 5 more to the 6. That was +1.3 EPA and 10.3 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. After a pass interference flag moved the ball to the 1, Williams went up the middle for the touchdown.

The pass defense Smashed, and EPA allowed per play says it was the best game of the season: Indianapolis's 36 pass plays were worth -8.6, -0.24 a play against +0.21 allowed through Week 8. On defense a negative number is good. Daniel Jones completed 20 of 34 for 180 yards, and 55 of them came on Ashton Dulin's touchdown late in the third; the other 35 pass plays were worth -13.2. The defense stopped 10 of 13 third downs, and Caleb Downs and Rashan Gary had a sack each. Downs also ended it. Up 27-23 with 41 seconds left, after an intentional-grounding penalty had left the Colts at third and 22 at their own 14, Jones threw deep over the middle for Keenan Allen and Downs intercepted at the 37, with Kenny Clark credited with a hit on Jones. That was -2.5 EPA for the Colts, and Prescott knelt once to finish.

The run defense came out ahead on one snap, and EPA per play allowed shows it: 23 rush plays worth -3.7, -0.16 a play against +0.03 allowed through Week 8; negative is good here too. The Colts succeeded on 56.5% of them, for 105 yards, and the other 22 came to +1.8. The exception came down 20-17 at the Dallas 18 with 9:55 left: Quinnen Williams stripped Jonathan Taylor for a 2-yard loss and Shemar James recovered at the 19, -5.5 EPA and 27.2 points of win probability. Seth McGowan ran 6 times for 45 yards and the Colts' opening touchdown.

The game turned on one throw. Tied 20-20, Aubrey missed from 50 wide left with 3:34 left, and Shrader made his from 50, his third field goal after a 47-yarder and a 59-yarder that had tied it. On the first snap after the kickoff, first and 10 at the Dallas 35 with 1:37 left, Prescott threw deep right to Ryan Flournoy for 46 yards to the Indianapolis 19, where Sauce Gardner brought him down: +2.8 EPA and 28.7 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. Williams scored four snaps later.

Last week's episode asked whether the run game would get back to the +0.03 a play it carried through Week 7. It went past it: +0.11 a play on 33 rushes, with Goodson's 12 carries worth +2.6. The one to watch next: whether a pass defense that held the Colts to -0.24 a play, its best game this season, can stay anywhere near that after allowing +0.21 a play through Week 8.

That's your Cowboys, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Cowboys on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._