Packers 22, Vikings 39 — Week 1: Led for 50 Minutes, Lost by 17

Green Bay led in Minneapolis for 50 minutes and 34 seconds of a 60-minute game. The Packers led 22 to 10 with five 12 left in the third quarter. They ran 67 plays to Minnesota's 59 and outgained the Vikings 419 yards to 244. And they lost 39 to 22, because after that third-quarter field goal they did not score again, and their last four possessions ended in a stop on fourth down, a strip-sack, an interception, and another stop on fourth down. Minnesota scored 22 of its 39 points on possessions Green Bay handed over.

The sequence that turned it starts with 13 21 left in the game, Green Bay up 22 to 17, fourth and six at the Minnesota 22. Trey Smack's 40-yard field goal was good, and Minnesota was offside. Green Bay declined the three points, took the five yards, and on fourth and one at the 17 Jordan Love kept it behind the right guard and was stopped for no gain. 14 points of win probability on one snap. Minnesota drove the other way for the touchdown, and three Green Bay penalties kept that drive alive: an illegal contact that erased a 10-yard sack on third and 11, a roughing-the-passer that turned a third-down incompletion at midfield into a first down, and, on third and five from the Green Bay six, a defensive holding call that wiped out an end-zone interception by Evan Williams. Aaron Jones scored from the three on the next snap, the two-point try was good, and Minnesota led 25 to 22 with six 37 to play. Green Bay's answer was three plays for −22 yards. Love was sacked and fumbled, and the Packers recovered. Love was sacked and fumbled again, Andrew Van Ginkel recovered at the Green Bay eight and returned it to the one, and Jordan Mason scored four seconds later. 15 points of win probability on the strip-sack, the biggest single swing of the game. Then, with four 21 left, James Pierre intercepted Love at the Green Bay 42 and returned it to the 14, and Justin Jefferson scored from the nine 18 seconds after that. Three touchdowns in two minutes 39 of game clock.

The passing game is why the yardage looks the way it does, and it was two different halves. 46 pass plays, 387 passing yards, second-most of the 28 teams whose games were in the books by Sunday evening. Two touchdowns, one interception, four sacks taken, and −3 expected points added on the day. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, and 19 of the 46 pass plays were successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. That is 41 percent, twentieth of the 28. In the first half, 19 pass plays produced +8 expected points, and the two touchdowns: Love deep middle to Christian Watson for 81 yards on second and 10 from the Green Bay 19 with seven 54 left in the first quarter, and Love to Watson from the two with 18 seconds left in the half. In the second half, 27 pass plays produced −11. In the fourth quarter alone, 18 pass plays produced −14. Green Bay had nine plays of 20 yards or more through the air or 12 or more on the ground; Minnesota had two. Only three of the nine came on touchdown drives. The 42-yard throw to Matthew Golden on the first snap of the fourth quarter, second and 20 from the Green Bay 32, produced nothing, because it led to the nullified field goal and the sneak.

The run game was the worst rushing unit of the week by rank, and it was not close. 21 rushing plays, 66 yards, no touchdowns, −9 expected points, the worst figure per rushing play of all 28 teams. Seven of the 21 were successful. In the fourth quarter, three rushing plays gained one yard. Green Bay converted three of 12 third downs, and nothing longer than seven yards to go; nine of the 12 were six yards or longer. Four trips inside the Minnesota 20 produced one touchdown, a field goal after a first and goal at the seven went −1, incomplete, incomplete, and two stops on downs.

The defense, for what it is worth, held Minnesota's offense to roughly −1 expected points on the day. On defense a big negative number is the good direction, and this was about even. 28 pass plays allowed for a hundred 51 yards, three touchdowns, one interception, and 11 of the 28 successful, a 39 percent rate that is eighth-best of the 28. 31 rushing plays allowed for a hundred 10 yards and two touchdowns, 10 of them successful, third-best rate of the week. Keisean Nixon intercepted Kyler Murray on Minnesota's second snap of the game and returned it to the Green Bay 47. Three sacks. And Minnesota converted eight of 14 third downs anyway, which is where the defense's day went: a 43 percent stop rate, among the four worst of the 28. Green Bay was flagged 12 times for 98 yards. Minnesota, three times for 15.

Two more things in the ledger. Smack missed the extra point wide right after the 81-yard touchdown, so Green Bay led nine to nothing instead of 10, and Minnesota's two-point conversion in the fourth quarter was worth exactly that point. And the kickoff coverage gave up a 68-yard return by Myles Price to the Green Bay 28 with five oh nine left in the third quarter; T.J. Hockenson scored on the sixth play of the drive on third and eight, and a 12-point lead was five.

Now the part where a Week 1 episode has to be honest about what it is. The ranks in this episode are against the 28 teams that had played by Sunday evening, not the whole league, and one game is one game. What there is, is last year. In 2025 this offense finished fourth in the league in expected points per play and third through the air, second in the league on third down, and twentieth on the ground. The defense finished 20-second in expected points allowed per play and 20-eighth in takeaways, with 13. On Sunday the passing game produced 387 yards and −3 expected points, the third-down offense went three of 12, the run game finished last of 28, and the defense took the ball away once. The passing yardage says the 2025 offense is still in there. Everything else says the questions from last season are still open, and one afternoon does not close them.

Green Bay is at the Jets next Sunday. Watch the run game first, and watch what happens on third down.

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_Data via nflverse._