Packers, Week 1 — What Repeats: Love Threw Half Uncatchable

Jordan Love threw 42 passes in Minneapolis on Sunday, and the charters marked 21 of them catchable. That is the lowest catchable rate any offense posted in Week 1 — 30-second of 32, against a league median of 71 percent — and it is a long way from Love's own number. Across all of last season, 318 of his 441 throws were catchable, 72 percent. The box score says 387 passing yards, and both things are true at once: half the throws were catchable, and those went a long way. Two of the 42 were charted interception-worthy — balls a defender should have caught — which is just under five percent of his throws, seventh-highest among the 32 offenses this week and about double his rate from last season, when he threw 10 of them on 441. He was intercepted once; the pack cannot say whether that was one of the two.

It was not traffic: six of the 42 throws were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, which is 14 percent, the same rate he ran across all of last season. It was not hands: Green Bay's receivers dropped nothing, zero drops on 21 catchable balls, after dropping 20 of 360 last year. One throwaway. What was different, in the charting, was the rush. Minnesota sent five or more pass rushers on 37 of Love's 46 dropbacks — 80 percent. The next-highest defense was at 46. Last season Green Bay's offense saw five or more rushers on 31 percent of its dropbacks; on Sunday the average was 5.3 rushers per dropback, against 4.4 a year ago. The charters tagged a blitzer — a defender rushing from somewhere he does not usually rush — on only eight of the 46 dropbacks, 17 percent, about half of last season's rate. Five or more was the norm, and most of it came without a charted blitzer. Love took four sacks, and none of the four was charted as the quarterback's fault; last season five of his were.

The box counts say the same thing from the other side. 20 of Green Bay's 21 charted designed runs saw six or fewer defenders in the box — 95 percent, the highest share of light boxes any offense saw in Week 1, a fraction ahead of Seattle. The average box was 5.9 defenders; last season it was 6.4, and light boxes came on 62 percent of this offense's designed runs, not 95. Those 21 runs gained 66 yards. Minnesota put more rushers on the passer and fewer defenders in the box, and Green Bay's run game did not make it cost anything. The Recap had this as the worst rushing unit by expected points among the teams that had played by Sunday evening; the charting adds that it happened into the lightest boxes anyone saw.

The screens and run-pass options that usually punish extra rushers were barely used. One screen on 46 dropbacks, two percent, against seven percent of dropbacks last season. One run-pass option on 67 snaps, against nine and a half percent of snaps last season. Play-action came on nine of 46 dropbacks, 20 percent, twentieth in the league this week with the median at 21, and down from 25 and a half percent a year ago. Love's seven play-action throws produced four completions for 57 yards; his other 35 throws produced 17 completions for 330. Motion on about 43 percent of charted plays, 20-second in the league, about where it was last season at 44. The one thing that went up was tempo: no-huddle on 15 percent of snaps, against nine percent last season.

The defense sent more than it used to. Green Bay rushed five or more on 14 of Minnesota's 31 dropbacks, 45 percent, fourth-highest in the league in Week 1, and that is a real change from last season, when this defense sent five or more on 21 percent of the dropbacks it faced. A charted blitzer came on six of the 31, 19 percent. What Minnesota threw against it was not clean: 15 of 25 throws catchable, 60 percent, 20-eighth of 32 offenses this week, with no drops. Carson Wentz threw 20 of those — 12 catchable, two contested, and zero charted interception-worthy, which is a change from his own last season, when 10 of his 170 throws were interception-worthy, about six percent, on a part-season sample. Kyler Murray's five throws included one charted interception-worthy ball; the charting does not say whether it was the one Keisean Nixon intercepted. Against the run, Green Bay showed a light box on 17 of Minnesota's 28 designed runs, 61 percent, up from 50 percent for this defense last season, and those 28 runs gained 100 yards. Minnesota's offense used play-action on 29 percent of its dropbacks and put a man in motion on 51 percent of its charted plays, ninth in the league this week.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Christian Watson led everyone on the field with 29.7 — six catches for 147 yards and two touchdowns on eight targets. Love, 19 and a half on 21 of 42 for 387, two touchdowns and the interception. Matthew Golden saw 12 targets, the most on the team, and caught six for 95. Tucker Kraft three catches for 65 on six targets, Jonnu Smith two for 50. The backfield was MarShawn Lloyd 13 carries for 37 and Chris Brooks seven for 29, no touchdowns, no catches between them. For Minnesota, Justin Jefferson caught eight of nine targets for 92 yards and two touchdowns, 27.2; Wentz went 12 of 19 for 133 three scores; Jordan Mason ran 15 times for 59 and a touchdown, Aaron Jones 12 for 40 and a touchdown, and T.J. Hockenson caught four of five for 36 and the other score.

A word on what this episode is, because the name makes a promise it cannot keep yet. Nothing in it compares Green Bay to Green Bay's own recent weeks, because there are none. Everything above is Sunday against all of last season — a different roster, a year older, in some places a different job. That comparison finds what is unusual, and unusual is worth knowing. It does not tell you what is true about this team. The version of this show that measures the Packers against their own prior weeks starts working around Week 4, and until then we will say each time which of the two comparisons we are making.

The season-long thread starts here. The Recap put down last season's ranks: an offense fourth in the league in expected points per play, third through the air, second on third down, twentieth on the ground; a defense 20-second in expected points allowed per play and 20-eighth in takeaways. Three lines go in the notebook from the charting. The run game got 66 yards on 21 carries into the lightest boxes in the league, which is a worse version of the twentieth-ranked ground game, not a different one. The quarterback's catchable rate fell 22 points against a five-man rush he will see again if it worked, and one screen and one run-pass option is not much of an answer. And the defense rushed five or more twice as often as it did a year ago. We are not calling any of them. We are writing them down.

That's your Packers — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Packers show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._