Packers 20, Jets 17 — Week 2: One Third Down and a Win

Four 49 left in the fourth quarter, Green Bay down 17 to 14, and the Jets punting on fourth and three from their own 31. Austin McNamara's punt travelled 51 yards to the Green Bay 18. Skyy Moore caught it there and was pushed out of bounds 63 yards later, at the New York 19. 26 points of win probability on a punt return, the biggest swing of regulation. The offense then gained three yards in three plays, and Trey Smack kicked the tying field goal from 34. The Packers won 20 to 17 in overtime on the road, and they did it with an offense that converted one third down all day.

Start there. One of nine on third down. Of the 28 teams that have played this week, that is last. Six of the nine needed seven yards or more, and none of those six converted. The one that did came with 10 35 left in the fourth quarter, third and three, Jordan Love short left to Matthew Golden for 18. Five three-and-outs, tied with Pittsburgh for the most so far this week. 208 total yards, 20-seventh of the 28; only Arizona gained fewer. 50 pass and rush plays to New York's 71.

The passing game is where last season's numbers and this season's stop agreeing. 32 pass plays produced −3.2 expected points added. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, so that is value handed back. It ranks 20-first of the 28 teams that have played this week, per play. At the rate Green Bay threw the ball last season, when this was the second-best passing game in the league, those same 32 plays would have been worth about +7. The success rate, the share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule, was 31 percent; so far this week only Chicago and Cincinnati were lower. A hundred 45 passing yards, tied with Atlanta for 20-fifth. Three sacks taken. Green Bay's longest completion was 20 yards, Love deep middle to Christian Watson on second and eight from midfield early in the second quarter, worth eight points of win probability and the key play of the first touchdown drive. What the passing game did do was finish: both touchdowns were throws from inside the 10, six yards to MarShawn Lloyd on second and six, three yards to Watson on second and three.

The run game opens on a count: nine of 18 rush plays gained three yards or fewer. 18 rush plays is tied with Houston for 20-sixth among the teams that have played this week, and only Arizona ran it less. 63 yards, no touchdowns, −7.9 expected points, tied with Las Vegas for 20-fourth per play. Two runs went for 10 or more, both by Kaleb Johnson: 12 on the last snap of the first quarter to start the first touchdown drive, and 11 around left end to start the winning drive in overtime. After halftime, 10 rush plays gained 28 yards. And the day's one turnover was a run. 12 35 left in the fourth, down 14 to seven, first and 10 from the Green Bay 14: Lloyd went left tackle for two, Kingsley Enagbare knocked the ball out, and Harrison Phillips recovered at the 18. −5 expected points on one snap. After it, the win probability model gave Green Bay eight percent, its low point of the day.

The run defense is the reason eight percent was survivable. New York ran 27 times, and those plays were worth −11.8 expected points. On defense a negative number is the good direction, and of the 28 teams that have played this week only the Raiders' run defense took more away in total; per play it ranks sixth. 67 yards allowed. 19 of the 27 gained three yards or fewer, and in the first half the Jets ran 13 times for 17 yards. At the rate this defense allowed runs last season, those same 27 plays would have been worth about −1 half. The snap that mattered most came with a minute 20 left, tied at 17, fourth and one at the 50. One play after Karl Brooks and Lukas Van Ness held Breece Hall to one yard on third and two, the Jets went for it, Braelon Allen ran right guard, and Van Ness stopped him for no gain. 25 points of win probability.

Against the pass it was an ordinary day with a loud finish. 44 pass plays, +4.3 expected points, fifteenth so far this week per play, 247 yards. At last season's rate, when this pass defense ranked in the bottom 10, those plays would have been worth about +3, so call it the same defense. The leak was third and long: four times New York converted a third down that needed nine yards or more, the last of them a short throw to Hall that went 43 yards on third and 12 from the Jets' 17, four seconds before the end of the third quarter. But the Jets failed on each of their last five third downs, and the defense stopped 11 of 19 overall, sixteenth of the 28 teams that have played. Four sacks, and the last two decided the game.

It went to overtime, and New York had the ball first. First and 10 from the Jets' 30, Barryn Sorrell and Brandon Cisse split a sack for −6. Second and 16, Van Ness and Dani Dennis-Sutton split another for −9. A false start made it third and 30, a 12-yard completion got back to the 22, and the Jets punted. Green Bay took over at its own 34. Johnson for 11, Johnson for three, then on second and seven Love threw short right to Chris Brooks for 15, and an unnecessary roughness penalty on Jarvis Brownlee added 15 more. 30 yards of field and 30 points of win probability on one snap. Golden for 14 to the eight, and Smack kicked a 26-yarder on first down. The Packers led for about four minutes of regulation, all of it in the second quarter, and not again until that kick.

27 accepted penalties in this game for 289 yards, 14 of them on Green Bay for a hundred 33. The touchdown drive that made it 17 to 14 stood at first and 25 from its own 37 after a hold and an illegal formation, and a 38-yard pass interference call on Azareye'h Thomas erased all of it.

Now the longer view, for anyone new to this show. Last season the Packers went nine, seven and one with the league's second-ranked passing game by expected points per play, the second-best third-down conversion rate, a run game that ranked nineteenth, a run defense seventeenth and a pass defense in the bottom 10. In Week 1 they lost 39 to 22 at Minnesota. They gained 453 yards, fifth-most in the league, but per play the passing game was nineteenth, the run game was 30-second of 32 at −9 expected points on 21 plays, and they converted three of 12 third downs. This week agrees with last week and disagrees with last season: the run game lost another eight expected points, and third down is now four of 21 across two games for a team that was second at it a year ago. The part that changed is the defense, which allowed 39 points last week and 17 this week. Two games do not settle any of it. But the offense this team was built around has not shown up in either.

Green Bay hosts Atlanta on Thursday night, at home. Atlanta's passing game was the least valuable of the 28 teams that have played so far this week. Watch third down, and watch whether first and second down leave it any shorter.

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_Data via nflverse._