Packers, Week 3 — What Repeats: The Light Box Cost Six a Carry

Green Bay showed six or fewer defenders in the box on 25 of Atlanta's 39 designed runs. That is 64 percent, seventh-highest of the 32 defenses this week. Those 39 runs gained 244 yards, 6.3 a carry, the second-most any defense allowed. Four days earlier, against the Jets, this run defense showed a light box on 44 percent of designed runs and allowed 2.2 a carry, third-fewest in the league. So the unit that won Week 2 is the unit that lost Week 3, and the box count moved with it. Last season this defense showed a light box on half of opponents' designed runs and allowed a little over four a carry.

Here is how the yards arrived. The 25 runs against a light box gained a hundred 49 yards, six a carry. The 14 runs into seven or more gained 95, and 55 of those were one play: Bijan Robinson around left end, first and 10 from the Atlanta 40, three oh six left in the first quarter, Green Bay up seven to nothing, into a seven-man box. Take that run out and the loaded fronts allowed about three a carry. The light fronts allowed six, spread across the carries. That is the read. Outside that one run, the run defense held when it had the extra man, and it showed the lighter box on two of every three runs.

The pass rush stayed where it has been. Green Bay sent five or more pass rushers on 10 of Michael Penix's 25 dropbacks, leaving out the two-point try, 40 percent, ninth in the league. That is the third straight week above last season's 21 percent: 47, 27, 40. It did not get much back. On the 10 throws against it Penix completed eight for a hundred 31 yards, and six of Drake London's 10 targets came on those snaps. 18 of Penix's 25 throws were charted catchable, 72 percent. One was contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together: four percent, 20-eighth of the 32 defenses. The one interception-worthy throw Green Bay forced was the one Xavier McKinney caught on Atlanta's fourth snap.

Now the offense, and the question last week's notebook closed on: when the box is light, count the fake handoffs. Atlanta showed six or fewer on seven of Green Bay's nine designed runs, 78 percent, fourth in the league. That is three straight weeks of light boxes near the top: 95 percent, 78, 78, against 62 percent across last season. The seven light-box runs gained nine yards. All nine gained 17, 1.9 a carry, the lowest of the 32 offenses this week. And the fake handoffs: nine of 54 dropbacks, 17 percent, 20-eighth in the league. 20 percent in Week 1, three in Week 2, 17 now, three weeks under last season's 25. Jordan Love's nine play-action throws went seven for 57 yards. The other 44 went 21 for 255. The space behind a light box has been there for three weeks. This week Green Bay ran into it nine times and faked it nine times.

The ball went the wrong way again. 34 of Love's 53 throws were charted catchable, 64 percent, tied with the Rams for 20-third of the 32 offenses this week. Three weeks: last, ninth, tied for 20-third, against 72 percent for Love across last season. Then the hands. Receivers dropped four of the 34 catchable balls, 12 percent, tied with the Giants for fourth-highest this week, after 13 percent last week and none in Week 1. Three of the four came in 35 seconds of game clock in the fourth quarter: Tucker Kraft on consecutive snaps at 10 51 10 47, then Matthew Golden at 10 16. Golden had 12 targets, the most on the team, caught five, and was charted with two of the drops. What came back toward normal is the traffic. Eight of 53 throws were contested, 15 percent, fourteenth in the league, after about 34 percent last week. Two throws were charted interception-worthy, both inside the last two minutes down 21, and Xavier Watts caught the second at the Atlanta three. The one sack, second and 10 with one 50 left in the third quarter, was charted the quarterback's own fault, against a four-man rush.

The rush was not the problem. Atlanta sent five or more on 12 of the 54 dropbacks, 22 percent, tied with New Orleans for 20-third. On those 12 throws Love completed five for 45 yards. On the 41 throws against four or fewer he completed 23 for 267, and both interception-worthy balls came there. Motion, seventh in the league last week at 56 percent, fell to 25 of 83 charted plays, 30 percent, thirtieth.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Love, 18 and a half: 28 of 53 for 312, two touchdowns and the interception. Christian Watson, 19.1 on seven catches of 10 targets for 96 and a score. Golden, 18 and a half on five of 12 for a hundred and a touchdown. Tucker Kraft caught four of eight for 26. MarShawn Lloyd had four carries for 11 two catches for seven, Kaleb Johnson four carries for six. For Atlanta, Bijan Robinson scored 34.3 on 29 carries for a hundred 94 two touchdowns, Drake London 23.9 on nine catches for a hundred 94, and Penix 14 on 18 of 25 for 256.

One line on the yardstick. Through this week every "last season" above is all of 2025, a different roster. From next week the comparison becomes this team's own games.

For anyone new, the thread from the top. Green Bay went nine, seven and one last season. This season: 39 to 22 at Minnesota, 20 to 17 in overtime at the Jets, and 14 to 35 against Atlanta at home, one and two. Last week's notebook, line by line. Held: light boxes near the top of the league, now three for three, and a run game gaining less against them than a year ago; play-action under last season, three for three; a defense sending five or more more often than last season, three for three. Reversed: the catchable rate, from ninth back to tied for 20-third; motion, from seventh to thirtieth; the run defense, from third-fewest per carry allowed to second-most. New this week: drops at a top-five rate for the second straight game. Three games settle none of it. Green Bay is at Tampa Bay next. If the box is light for a fourth week, the question stops being the box.

That's your Packers — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Packers show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._