Packers 17, Buccaneers 14 — Week 4: Three Fourth Downs on One Drive

Fourth and two at the Tampa Bay two, 12 58 left in the first half, nothing to nothing: the third fourth down of the drive. Green Bay had started at its own 32 after Williams intercepted Jalon Daniels. On fourth and one at the 28, Jordan Love hit Tucker Kraft for 10. On fourth and one at the nine, the snap went straight to Kraft, and he ran up the middle for three. A pass interference flag made it first and one at the one, then Chris Brooks lost two, MarShawn Lloyd lost three, and Love's third-down throw to Lloyd got back to the two. Love threw short right to Matthew Golden for the touchdown. +3.9 expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, and 11 and a half points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the snap against before it. 16 plays, nine minutes 16 seconds. Green Bay won 17 to 14 at Tampa Bay, is two and two, and won after giving the ball away twice in the last nine and a half minutes.

The passing game opens on accuracy, because through September too much of the ball arrived where nobody could catch it. Love was charted catchable on 27 of 30 throws, 90 percent, the highest of the 30 charted offenses this week, against 63 percent across Weeks 1 through 3. He completed 22. 30 pass plays, no sacks, were worth +6.9 expected points, a hundred 97 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, with half of them successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. At this passing game's rate over the first three weeks, those 30 would have been worth about −0.5. The fake handoff came back: play-action on seven of 30 dropbacks, 23 percent, against 14 before Sunday, and six of the seven play-action throws were completed for 75 yards. Tampa Bay sent five or more pass rushers on only eight dropbacks, 27 percent, after 44 percent of Green Bay's dropbacks drew that much rush in the first three weeks. Two things did not move. Receivers dropped four of the 27 catchable balls, 15 percent, after nine through September, and third down was two of nine.

The throw that went wrong nearly cost the game. First and 15 at the Tampa Bay 26, four 26 left, up 17 to 14: Love deep left for Golden, and Parrish intercepted at the seven. −21 points of win probability, the biggest single swing of the afternoon.

Last week's notebook ended on the box: if it was light for a fourth week, the question would stop being the box. It was not light. Tampa Bay showed six or fewer in the box on eight of Green Bay's 22 designed runs, 36 percent, twentieth of the 30 charted offenses this week, after 85 percent across Weeks 1 through 3. The average front went from about six defenders to about seven, and Green Bay gained more against it: 98 yards on 22 designed runs, four and a half a run, after a hundred 46 on 48 through September, about three. By expected points the run game finished at −6.0 on 22 rush plays, against about −9 at its own rate, and nearly all of that is one snap, the fumble below, worth −5.9. Brooks went 27 yards off left tackle on the long touchdown drive. And on the first possession of the third quarter, second and five at the Tampa Bay 36, up 10 to seven, Kaleb Johnson went up the middle for 31 yards to the five. Two snaps later Love's throw to Kraft was ruled incomplete; Green Bay challenged, the call was reversed, and Kraft had a two-yard touchdown. 17 to seven.

The pass defense won its side, and on defense a negative number is the good direction. 30 Tampa Bay pass plays, three of them sacks, were worth −4.3 expected points, a hundred 48 yards and one touchdown, where the rate Green Bay allowed over the first three weeks would have produced about +3.8. This is where the extra rush lived: five or more on 19 of Daniels's 36 dropbacks, 53 percent, third-most of the 30 charted defenses this week, against 36 percent through September. Daniels threw three interception-worthy balls, the highest rate of the 30 charted offenses, and eight of his 27 throws were contested, 30 percent, against 17 allowed before Sunday. Two were intercepted. Williams took the first, deep left for Emeka Egbuka, and it started the long touchdown drive. Cooper took the second, short left with 41 seconds left in the half and the score tied at seven, and returned it 18 yards to the Tampa Bay 44. Trey Smack kicked a 58-yard field goal with two seconds left. That is the margin.

The run defense was the weaker unit. 31 Tampa Bay rush plays went for a hundred 41 yards, a touchdown and +2.0 expected points allowed, where the first three weeks' rate would have produced about −0.5. Six were Daniels scrambles for 46 yards, the longest 21 on third and two, on the drive that ended in Kenny Gainwell's touchdown catch. The designed runs were held under four yards a run, against a little over four allowed through September. Short yardage was the leak: Sean Tucker converted fourth and one at the Green Bay 19 with an eight-yard run in the second quarter and scored from the two two snaps later.

The turning point was two giveaways deep in Tampa Bay territory. First and goal at the three, nine 13 left, up 17 to 14: Johnson up the middle, Smith forced the fumble, McCollum recovered at the four. 19 points of win probability, and a drive built on Jonnu Smith's 19-yard catch, Christian Watson's 18 on third and three and Watson's 13 to the three ended with nothing. The defense answered both giveaways. After the fumble, Tampa Bay went six plays and ended up punting from its own one. After Parrish's interception, Tampa Bay reached the Green Bay 46 with two minutes left; Williams sacked Daniels for six on second down, 11 points of win probability, and on fourth and 11 Daniels threw short middle for Ted Hurst. Nixon was ruled to have intercepted it, replay made it an incompletion, and that was enough: 20 points of win probability, and Love knelt three times.

The stat lines, scored half-PPR. Kraft, 13 and a half: six catches on seven targets for 42 yards and the touchdown, plus the three-yard direct-snap run. Love 13.1: 22 of 30 for a hundred 97, two touchdowns and the interception. Golden 10.2 on three catches for 21 and the fourth-down score. Lloyd 7.4 on seven carries for 13 five catches for 36. Christian Watson 6.2 on three catches for 47. Brooks four on four carries for 30, and Johnson 2.2 on eight carries for 42.

For anyone new to this show: Green Bay lost 39 to 22 at Minnesota, won 20 to 17 in overtime at the Jets, lost 35 to 14 at home to Atlanta, and won Sunday at Tampa Bay. Last week's notebook, line by line. The light box ended, and the run game gained more against the heavier front than it had against light ones. Play-action, under last season's rate in each of the first three weeks, came back to nearly a quarter of dropbacks. The ball arrived catchable nine times in 10, against six in 10 through September. The drops held, four more, and so did a defense sending five or more, third-most of the week. Four games settle none of it. The one to watch next is whether the box stays heavy and the ball keeps arriving where Love's receivers can catch it, because on Sunday those two moved together.

That's your Packers — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Packers show wherever you're listening, so next week's episode lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._