Packers 31, Bears 7 — Week 5: Five Forced Turnovers, None Lost

Green Bay beat Chicago 31-7 at home on Sunday, and the defense took the ball away five times while the offense never gave it back. Xavier McKinney intercepted Tyson Bagent twice, Ty'Ron Hopper intercepted Case Keenum on fourth down at the goal line, and two more Chicago possessions ended in lost fumbles. Jordan Love completed 25 of 31 for 367 yards and two touchdowns, both to Christian Watson. The Bears' only score was a fourth-and-1 run from the 1 before halftime.

The passing game Smashed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, shows by how much. Its 33 pass plays were worth +15.8 EPA, +0.48 a play, against +0.03 through Week 4, and 51.5% were successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. The fake handoff carried it: play-action on 14 of 34 dropbacks, 41.2%, against 16% through Week 4, and Love completed 12 of those 14 for 245 yards. Watson caught 6 of 8 targets for 143 yards, Matthew Golden 6 of 7 for 123, and Tucker Kraft all 5 of his for 64. The throw of the day came after the offense had gone backwards. Up 14-7 on the first drive of the third quarter, an offensive pass interference flag wiped out a 43-yard touchdown and left third and 22 at the Green Bay 47. Love went deep middle to Watson for 53 yards and the touchdown, +5.9 EPA and 12.4 points of win probability. The extra point went wide left: 20-7.

The run game was better than its average and still did its work in short yardage. Its 24 rush plays had a 37.5% success rate and were worth -1.8 EPA, -0.08 a play against -0.37 through Week 4, for 72 yards and two touchdowns. Both were MarShawn Lloyd's, from the 7 and the 4; he ran 10 times for 31 yards and Kaleb Johnson 7 for 26. Kraft took a direct snap for 2 yards on third and 1 to keep the first touchdown drive alive, and Pierre Strong converted fourth and 1 at the Chicago 24 for 2 yards, +1.6 EPA, on the second.

The pass defense Smashed too, and on defense a big negative number is the good direction. Chicago's 44 pass plays were worth -22.2 EPA, -0.51 a play, against +0.06 allowed through Week 4, for 195 yards and no touchdown. Green Bay did it without extra rushers, sending five or more on 7 of 47 dropbacks, 14.9%, against 40.3% through Week 4. Only 24 of Chicago's 40 throws were catchable, 60%, against 73.3% allowed through Week 4. Three were interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, and all 3 were caught. The first set the day. Up 7-0 in the first quarter, Chicago second and 10 at its own 26, Bagent threw deep right for Luther Burden III and McKinney intercepted at the Chicago 45, -3.6 EPA and 7.3 points of win probability. Green Bay drove from there, converted the fourth and 1, and Lloyd scored for 14-0. Devonte Wyatt sacked Bagent for 11 yards on Chicago's first series and stripped Keenum in the fourth; Dani Dennis-Sutton recovered.

The run defense held near its average. Chicago's 24 rush plays went for 81 yards and a touchdown and were worth -0.9 EPA, -0.04 a play, against +0.00 allowed through Week 4. The 21 designed runs gained 67 yards, with six or fewer in the box on 10 of them, 47.6%, against 55.7% through Week 4. D'Andre Swift ran 9 times for 43 yards and scored on fourth and 1, two snaps after Dennis-Sutton stopped him for no gain at the 1. The best stand came early in the fourth: Chicago first and goal at the 8, Burden lost 6 on third down when Keisean Nixon and Zaire Franklin brought him down at the 9, and on fourth and 9 Hopper intercepted Keenum in the end zone and returned it to the 19.

The game turned between 5:57 and 5:39 of the first quarter. Love hit Watson deep left for a 42-yard touchdown on first and 10, +3.6 EPA and 9.8 points of win probability, and on Chicago's second snap back McKinney had the first interception. The defense stopped Chicago on 10 of 14 third downs and allowed one touchdown on 11 red-zone snaps. The offense went 4 of 12 on third down, but its 12 drives brought four touchdowns, a field goal and no turnovers.

The scheme used its whole kit. Motion came on 50 of 74 charted plays, 67.6%, against 46.1% through Week 4. Run-pass options rose to 7, 12.3% of snaps, from 4.3%, and screens to 5 of 34 dropbacks, 14.7%, from 8.6%. No-huddle fell to 3.5% from 9.9%. Love left the pocket 7 times on 34 dropbacks, after 16 on 162 through Week 4.

Last week's question was whether the box stays heavy and the ball keeps arriving catchable. Both held. Chicago showed six or fewer in the box on 26.1% of designed runs, against the 70% this offense saw through Week 4, and 27 of Love's 31 throws were catchable, 87.1%, against 68.2%. Receivers dropped 2 of the 27, 7.4%, after 11 through Week 4, and 4 throws were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, 12.9% against 18.2%. The heavier box still did not open the run game: 66 yards on 23 designed runs, after 244 on 70 through Week 4. The one to watch next: whether play-action stays near 4 in 10 dropbacks after going 12 of 14 for 245 yards, and whether a defense that sent extra rushers on 14.9% of dropbacks keeps drawing interception-worthy throws without them.

That's your Packers, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Packers on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._