Packers 23, Cowboys 13 — Week 6: Two Picks, 17-0 at the Half

Green Bay beat Dallas 23-13 at home, and two interceptions in its own territory in the second quarter built a 17-0 halftime lead the Cowboys never closed. The Packers took the ball away twice and gave it away once, a margin of +1. Matthew Golden's 9-yard touchdown on third and 6 opened the scoring, Jordan Love ran one in from a yard out with 25 seconds left in the half, and Trey Smack made field goals from 25, 44 and 29. Dallas did not score until the third quarter.

The passing game beat its own standard, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, shows by how much. Its 44 pass plays were worth +6.1 EPA, +0.14 a play against +0.11 through Week 5, and 43.2% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Love completed 23 of 41 for 276 yards, a touchdown and an interception, and was sacked three times. Third down carried it: Green Bay converted 11 of 18. The first scoring drive set the tone. On third and 13 at the Green Bay 27, scoreless in the first quarter, Love threw deep middle to Christian Watson for 27 yards to the Dallas 46, +3.5 EPA and 8.4 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Golden followed with a 37-yard catch down the left side, though his taunting penalty gave back 15, and finished the drive with the touchdown. He caught 6 of 13 targets for 104 yards; Watson added a 28-yarder on second and 13 in the second quarter. The miss cost the most of any snap: second and 12 with 1:53 left in the first, up 7-0, Dee Winters intercepted a throw for Golden at the Green Bay 42, a return for a touchdown until replay ruled him down, and 10.1 points of win probability.

The run game stayed below water, and its success rate says so: 29.2% of 24 rush plays succeeded, for 59 yards and -3.8 EPA. That is -0.16 a play, still better than the -0.29 it carried through Week 5. Pierre Strong ran 11 times for 28 and MarShawn Lloyd 8 times for 10, losing 2 and 3 yards on first downs in the opening quarter. Love's 1-yard run was the touchdown.

The pass defense won the game, and the EPA allowed measures it: Dallas's 55 pass plays were worth -7.4, -0.14 a play against -0.08 allowed through Week 5; on defense a negative number is good. Dak Prescott completed 34 of 54 for 258 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions. Green Bay kept beating the throws to CeeDee Lamb, who caught 9 of 18 targets for 70 yards and was the target on both picks and both fourth-down stops. The first stop came on fourth and 2 at midfield early in the fourth, up 20-7, with Javon Bullard on the play. The second followed Lukas Van Ness's sack on first and 10 at the Green Bay 13: on fourth and 11 at the 14, Prescott missed Lamb over the middle. The defense got off the field on 8 of Dallas's 13 third downs.

The run defense gave up little ground and a fair share of successful plays. Dallas's 15 rush plays gained 48 yards at -0.07 EPA a play, better than the near-zero mark Green Bay allowed through Week 5; negative is the good direction here too. Still, 46.7% succeeded. Javonte Williams ran 11 times for 41 and scored from the 1 in the third.

The game turned in the second quarter, when Dallas reached Green Bay territory twice and came away with nothing. On the quarter's first snap, third and 8 at the Green Bay 17, down 7-0, Prescott threw over the middle for Lamb and Evan Williams intercepted at the 3, running it back 17 yards: -4.3 EPA and 8 points of win probability for Dallas. Green Bay drove to the Dallas 1, was stopped twice there, and took a 10-0 lead on Smack's 25-yarder. With 2:00 left in the half, on first and 15 at the Green Bay 28, Brandon Cisse intercepted another throw for Lamb at the 18, -4.0 EPA and 9.3 points. Love finished the next drive himself, and it was 17-0. Green Bay scored 2 touchdowns on 13 red-zone snaps and Dallas 2 on 15.

The one to watch next: whether a run game that succeeded on 29.2% of its carries can give Love a second way to move the ball, and whether a defense that stopped 8 of 13 third downs and took two balls away keeps finishing drives the opponent has already won the yardage on.

That's your Packers, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Packers on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._