Packers 27, Panthers 19 — Week 8: Six Sacks, 21 Straight

Green Bay beat Carolina 27-19 at home on Thursday night, and won it with 21 straight points in the middle of the game. On the opening kickoff Coleman Owen fumbled the return and Carolina recovered at the Green Bay 29, which became a field goal. Trey Smack hit the left upright on the extra point after the first touchdown, and Carolina led 10-6 early in the second quarter. From there it was 13-10, 20-10 and 27-10. 11 drives produced four touchdowns, two turnovers and three three-and-outs.

The passing game beat its season rate, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures by how much: 41 pass plays worth +6.9, +0.17 a play against +0.12 through Week 7. Of those, 53.7% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Jordan Love completed 30 of 41 for 288 yards, three touchdowns and an interception without being sacked, and the offense converted 10 of 16 third downs. Tucker Kraft caught all 6 of his targets for 53 yards and a touchdown, and Christian Watson caught 8 of 10 for 113. The pass of the night came up 13-10 with 1:51 left in the half: third and 13 at the Carolina 24, one snap after Josh Jacobs lost 3, Love threw deep left to Matthew Golden for the touchdown, +4.5 EPA and 10.3 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Most of it came before the break. The 24 dropbacks of the first half were worth +8.8; the 17 after it came to -1.9, including a deep throw for Golden on third and 8 at the Carolina 27 that Zakee Wheatley intercepted at the 2.

The run game was still below water, but EPA per play shows it gaining ground: 26 rush plays worth -3.4, -0.13 a play against -0.26 through Week 7. Only 38.5% succeeded, for 66 yards and a touchdown. Jacobs carried 21 times for 39 yards, and none of his carries went longer than 6. He scored from the 1 on third and 1 in the second quarter, and on the clock-killing drive at the end his last three carries gained -3, 0 and 1. Savion Williams's 18-yard run to the Carolina 8 was the longest of the night.

The pass defense set its season high in sacks, and that is the stat that opens it: Bryce Young went down six times for 33 yards, after no more than four in any game through Week 7. Carolina's 46 pass plays were worth -6.6 EPA, -0.14 a play against -0.05 allowed through Week 7; on defense a negative number is good. Young completed 23 of 41 for 209 yards, a touchdown and an interception, and only 34.8% of the pass plays succeeded. Devonte Wyatt's sack on third and 8 at the Green Bay 15 held the opening drive to a field goal, and Brenton Cox Jr. added one before halftime. The 21 dropbacks before halftime came to -9.2. Carolina found more after the break, +2.5 on 25, and Jalen Coker's 26-yard touchdown on fourth and 3 with 5:45 left made it 27-19 before the two-point try fell incomplete.

The run defense held Chuba Hubbard to short gains, and success rate allowed tells it: 34.8% of Carolina's 23 rush plays succeeded, for 82 yards. They were worth -2.8 EPA, -0.12 a play against -0.07 allowed through Week 7. Hubbard ran 22 times for 81 yards and scored from the 1 to open the second quarter, but his only carry longer than 9 yards was an 18-yarder up 27-10. Up 20-10 on the first drive of the third quarter, fourth and 2 at midfield, Chris McClellan held him to 1 yard, -3.0 EPA for Carolina and 5.3 points of win probability. Green Bay went 50 yards from there, and Jacobs caught a 4-yard touchdown on third and 1 for 27-10.

The game turned in the second quarter. Down 10-6, Love found Watson deep over the middle for 53 yards to the Carolina 26, 13.2 points of win probability, and Jacobs scored five snaps later. On Carolina's next drive, third and 3 at its own 48, Ty'Ron Hopper intercepted Young's short pass for Coker, 12.9 points of win probability, and Golden's touchdown on the eighth snap of the next drive made it 20-10. At the end, up 27-19, the defense stopped Young on fourth and 5 at midfield with 2:46 left, Watson's 7-yard catch on third and 2 forced Carolina's last timeout, and Cox recovered Coker's fumble after a lateral on the final play.

Last week's notebook asked whether play-action would get back to being Love's best tool, and whether a pass defense that allowed +0.28 a play at Detroit would return to its standard. Play-action waits for the charting. The pass defense answered: -0.14 a play and six sacks. The one to watch next: whether an offense worth +0.37 a dropback in the first half and -0.11 in the second can keep it going for four quarters, and whether Jacobs's volume turns a run game at -0.13 a play into one that gains on its own.

That's your Packers, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Packers on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._