Packers 45, Patriots 27 — Week 9: 372 Yards, Four Takeaways

Green Bay beat New England 45-27 on the road on Sunday for its second straight win and went to 6-3. The 45 points were its most this season, 14 more than the 31 it scored against Chicago in Week 5. It never trailed: Xavier McKinney intercepted Drake Maye on New England's second snap, and Green Bay led 14-0 with 7:59 left in the first. 14 drives produced five touchdowns, three Trey Smack field goals and no giveaways.

The passing game Smashed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures by how much: +0.71 a play on 32 pass plays against +0.12 through Week 8, its best game this season. Of those, 56.3% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Jordan Love completed 23 of 29 for 372 yards and three touchdowns without an interception and was sacked three times. Up 7-0 with 10:50 left in the first, first and 10 at his own 33 out of a no-huddle, Love went deep right to Matthew Golden for 49 yards to the New England 18, +3.3 EPA and 8.1 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Golden caught the 5-yard touchdown that finished the drive and went 10 for 10 for 164 yards; Christian Watson caught 7 of 8 for 171.

The run game moved the ball more often than it paid, and success rate shows the ceiling: 11 of 32 rush plays, 34.4%, for 129 yards and two touchdowns. EPA had them at -0.15 a play, below zero but ahead of -0.24 through Week 8. Kaleb Johnson ran 14 times for 68 yards, his most carries this season, scored from the 2 and opened the fourth with a 34-yarder. Love's 13-yard scramble for the opening touchdown was the best run, +2.5 EPA.

The pass defense took the ball away four times, and total EPA allowed puts a number on it: New England's 45 pass plays were worth -9.6, -0.21 a play against -0.06 allowed through Week 8. On defense a negative number is good. The first takeaway came on the Patriots' second snap. Second and 9 at their own 26, Maye threw deep left for Mack Hollins, and McKinney intercepted at midfield and returned it 36 yards to the 14, -5.9 EPA and 15.0 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. Love scored two snaps later. McKinney picked off a short throw for Eli Raridon in the second quarter, Evan Williams intercepted a deep ball at the Green Bay 23, and Isaiah McDuffie forced a Rhamondre Stevenson fumble after a catch and recovered it himself. Karl Brooks had two of the four sacks. Maye still threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns.

The run defense gave ground, and EPA per play allowed shows it: New England's 16 rush plays were worth +2.1, +0.13 a play against -0.08 allowed through Week 8, its worst since Week 3; here a positive number is bad. Nine of the 16 succeeded, for 94 yards. Most of it came late: Corey Kiner ran 7 times for 53 yards in the fourth, scoring from the 4 down 45-21.

The game turned in the first 10:50 of the third quarter. Green Bay led 24-14 at halftime after Love's fourth and 3 at the New England 43 fell incomplete with 1:52 left, 6.8 points of win probability back to the Patriots, who threw three straight incompletions from the Green Bay 46 and punted. Love opened the third with a seven-play, 70-yard drive that ended on Savion Williams's 10-yard touchdown on third and 7. Brooks's sack forced a punt, and Smack kicked a 51-yarder. Two snaps later McDuffie's forced fumble set up Watson's 39-yard touchdown down the middle on the next play, and Love ran in the two-point try: 42-14 with 4:10 left in the third.

Last week's episode asked whether an offense worth +0.37 a dropback in the first half against Carolina and -0.11 in the second could keep it going for four quarters. It got better as it went: +0.54 a pass play before halftime, +0.95 after it. The one to watch next: whether a run game that has finished below zero EPA a play in every game this season, -0.15 here, gets over the line.

That's your Packers, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Packers on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._