Texans 31, Bills 36 — Week 1: The League's Best Pass Defense Gave Up 334

Houston had Buffalo at its own four-yard line, up 31 to 30, with three 13 left on Sunday, and the drive that followed is the whole game. Seven plays, 96 yards. Josh Allen to Dalton Kincaid for 35 on first and 10 from the 32, then third and 11 from the Houston 34, Allen deep middle to Josh Palmer for the touchdown with one 41 left. 32 points of win probability on that throw. C.J. Stroud then took the Texans to the Buffalo nine — Nico Collins for 12 on second and 15, Jaylin Noel for 18 on third and three — and with 25 seconds left, first and nine, Deone Walker sacked him for nine, and two plays later, on a snap from the 18, Greg Rousseau sacked him, knocked the ball out, and Terrel Bernard recovered. 36 to 31, Bills, and the Texans lost a game at home in which their offense scored 31 points.

Start with the pass defense, because a year ago it was the best in the league and on Sunday it was the reason this was lost. 32 Buffalo pass plays produced 334 yards, two touchdowns, and +15 expected points added. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position; on defense a big negative number is the good direction, and +15 allowed is fifteenth of the 16 teams in Sunday's early games. The shape of it matters. Only 14 of the 32 pass plays were successful — that is a 44 percent success rate allowed, sixth-best of the 16 — but six Buffalo plays went for 20 or more, and three of them were Kincaid: 38 yards on first and 10 from the Buffalo four with two 10 left in the half, 40 on third and four from the Buffalo 40 with 12 44 left in the fourth, and the 35 on the last drive. Two plays after the 38, Allen hit DJ Moore deep right for 43 and a touchdown; that was a three-play, 96-yard drive that started at the four. So did the last one. Between those, Kamari Lassiter's pass interference on a deep ball for Moore, 46 yards, put the ball at the Houston one with four 13 left in the half, and Allen sneaked it in two plays later. The run defense, by contrast, was second of the 16: 20 Buffalo carries, 87 yards, −3 expected points, and after halftime eight carries for 20 yards. It stopped six of nine third downs.

The offense scored 31, and it earned them the hard way. 41 pass plays, 274 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, three sacks, +1 and a half expected points — seventh of the 16. 20 of the 41 were successful, seventh-best. 32 rushing plays for a hundred 24 yards and two touchdowns, +3 and a half, tied for fourth of the 16 by expected points per carry — and that was a first half: 18 carries for 94 yards and +7 before the break, 14 for 30 and −3 after it. David Montgomery scored from the one on third and one with 37 seconds left in the first quarter, and up the middle from the 18 with four 53 left in the half. The drive that tied it at 27 was 13 plays and 72 yards across the end of the third quarter, and it survived two fourth-and-ones: Montgomery for two at the Houston 37 with two 50 left in the third, and Woody Marks for three at the Buffalo 22 with four seconds left. Stroud hit Montgomery for the seven-yard touchdown on second and seven with 13 39 left in the game. 11 snaps inside the Buffalo 20 produced four touchdowns, fifth-best of the teams that have played, from an offense that finished 30-first in the league at that a year ago.

Which brings the two possessions that ended with the ball on the ground, both Rousseau. Third and 12 at the Houston 34 with nine 40 left in the first quarter, he sacked Stroud, knocked it loose, and Ed Oliver recovered at the 32; Buffalo kicked a 46-yard field goal for the first points of the game. 12 points of win probability on that one. And the last one. Two giveaways, no takeaways. The kicking ledger was clean: Ka'imi Fairbairn's 58-yard field goal with six 48 left put the Texans ahead 31 to 30 and was worth nine points of win probability on its own.

One more in the ledger: Houston had four three-and-outs, and Kai Kroeger's punt with three 24 left was downed at the Buffalo four. That is the punt that set up the 96-yard drive, and it was a good punt.

Now the part where a Week 1 episode has to be honest about what it is. The ranks in this episode are against the 16 teams that played in the early window on Sunday, not the whole league. What there is, is last year. In 2025 this defense finished first in the league in expected points allowed per play, first against the pass, second in the rate of plays it allowed to succeed at 38 percent, and the team won 12 games. On Sunday it allowed a 44 percent success rate through the air, sixth-best of the 16 early-game teams, and six explosive plays and +15 expected points, which is fifteenth of the 16. The offense finished 20-first in expected points per play, thirtieth on the ground and 30-first in the red zone a year ago; on Sunday it was seventh and fourth of the 16, and fourth of the 15 early-game teams that had a red-zone snap. If you want one sentence out of this: the offense looked like something it was not in 2025 and the pass defense gave up the big play in a way it did not, and one game against Josh Allen settles neither — a defense can win 18 of 32 snaps and lose the game on the other 14, and that is roughly what happened.

Houston is home to Cincinnati next Sunday. Watch the deep ball on defense first, and watch whether the run game holds up for four quarters, in that order.

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_Data via nflverse._