Texans 6, Bengals 20 — Week 2: Four Hundred Yards and Six Points

Houston gained 413 yards on Sunday, second-most of the 28 teams that have played this week, and threw for 353, the most of anyone so far. It did not turn the ball over once. It scored six points. The Texans lost 20 to six at home to the Bengals, never led, and the shape of the whole afternoon was set by two drives in a scoreless game. The first started at the Houston eight and covered 76 yards. The second covered 48. Both got inside the Cincinnati 20, both ended on fourth down, and neither produced a point.

Take them in order. On the first, C.J. Stroud hit Dalton Schultz for 35 on third and three from the Houston 15, then found Woody Marks for exactly 12 on third and 12, down to the Cincinnati 22. When the second quarter opened with first and 10 there, Houston's win probability stood at about 70 percent, the highest it got all day. Marks for no gain. Marks for two. A four-yard completion on third and eight. Then fourth and four at the 16, the field goal unit on, and the ball ended up with the holder, Kai Kroeger, who lost ground, fumbled, recovered it himself and threw incomplete. Six points of win probability gone, no kick attempted. On the next possession Stroud opened with 25 to Foster Moreau, and a third-and-nine catch by David Montgomery came up a yard short at the Cincinnati 18. Fourth and one, six 58 left in the half, an extra lineman reported as eligible, Montgomery over right tackle, and Dexter Lawrence stopped him for a loss of one. By expected points added, which is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, that was the most expensive play of the game for either team, −4.4, and it cost 10 points of win probability. Cincinnati took the ball and went 81 yards for the game's first touchdown.

The run game is where those short yards went missing. Three of 18 rush plays were successful, meaning they kept the offense on schedule. That 17 percent is the lowest success rate of the 28 teams that have played this week, and the expected points per rush play were the lowest too. The total was −9.7. 12 of the 18 gained three yards or fewer. Three quarterback scrambles gained 29 of the 60 rushing yards; the other 15 rush plays gained 31, and 13 of that was one Jaylin Noel run around right end. A week ago this same unit produced +3 and a half expected points on 32 rush plays and tied for sixth in the league per play. And it kept costing them in the same spot. Third quarter, down 10 to three, second and one at the Cincinnati 40: incomplete. Third and one: Marks over right guard, no gain, Tedarrell Slaton on the tackle. Fourth and one: a 58-yard field goal try that came up short, another nine and a half points of win probability. The Bengals took over at their own 48 and scored the touchdown that made it 17 to three. Houston ran three plays on third or fourth and one all day and converted none of them.

The passing game has the week's biggest yardage number and one of its worst values, and both are accurate. 58 pass plays were worth −9.1 expected points, 20-fifth in total and 20-third per play of the 28 teams so far, with no touchdowns. For the comparison: at the rate this passing offense produced last season, when it ranked fifteenth, those same 58 plays would have been worth about +2. At the rate Cincinnati's pass defense allowed last season, when it ranked 20-eighth, about +9 and a half. Five completions of 20 yards or more gained a hundred 37 yards. Third down is the reason. Five of 17, 20-fourth so far this week, and that flatters it: Houston converted two of its first 13, and the other three came on the final drive, down 14 with two minutes or less to play. 12 of the 17 needed seven yards or more. Two of those 12 converted. All four sacks came in the fourth quarter, along with an intentional grounding call on third and 11 that turned a drive at midfield into fourth and 24.

Inside the 20 it was 10 snaps and no touchdowns, which makes Houston one of six teams so far this week to reach the red zone and not score a touchdown there. Those 10 snaps lost more yards than they gained. The last four of them closed the game: first and 10 at the Cincinnati 12 with 51 seconds left, incomplete, a Shemar Stewart sack for −7, incomplete, and on fourth and 17 Cedric Johnson dropped Stroud 19 yards back. Before that, with three 20 left and still down 14, fourth and one at the Houston 41 went incomplete to Jared Wayne, two snaps after a second and one had turned into an eight-yard sack. Four fourth-down plays that were not kicks, four failures.

The defense played well enough to win this. Cincinnati's pass plays were successful 28 percent of the time, the lowest rate any offense has posted so far this week. 36 pass plays were worth about minus half a point of expected points, eleventh of the 28 defenses, and on defense a negative number is the good direction. A week ago Buffalo's 32 pass plays were worth +14 and a half against this same group, thirtieth of 32. Five sacks on Sunday, from Logan Hall, Danielle Hunter, Will Anderson, Sheldon Rankins, and one split by Mario Edwards and Sabastian Harsh. Eight punts forced. 10 stops on 15 third downs, tied for eighth so far this week. Against the run, 22 plays for 86 yards, eighth-best per play of the 28. What got through was a short list. On the 81-yard touchdown drive, Tee Higgins caught 18 over the middle on third and eight and 23 over the middle on third and four, and Ja'Marr Chase scored from 32 on the next snap. Chase's second touchdown was 18 yards on third and six. The other six points were field goals from 51 57. What the defense has not done is take the ball away: no takeaways this week, none last week.

Penalties filled in the rest. Nine for 83 yards. A false start at the Cincinnati 22 turned third and six into third and 11 and the drive into a 45-yard field goal, and an unnecessary roughness flag on that kick pushed the kickoff back to the 20.

Now the thread, for anyone new to this team. Houston went 12 five last season on defense: first in the league against the pass by expected points per play, eighth against the run, sixth in third-down stop rate. The offense was the drag, fifteenth passing, thirtieth running, bottom 10 on third down. Week 1 turned that upside down, a 36 to 31 home loss to Buffalo in which the offense gained 398 yards and the pass defense ranked thirtieth. Week 2 put it back the way it was and then some. The defense looked much closer to last year's. The run game and third down, last year's two weak spots, were last and 20-fourth of the 28 teams so far. The two losses have nothing in common except the record, and two games do not settle which version is real. But oh and two is settled.

Houston is at Indianapolis next Sunday afternoon. Watch what the offense does when it needs one yard, and watch third and long.

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_Data via nflverse._