Texans, Week 2 — What Repeats: Stroud Threw 16 Contested Balls

C.J. Stroud threw 55 passes on Sunday against a defense that almost never sent extra rushers. Cincinnati brought five or more on six of Houston's 61 dropbacks. 10 percent, the lowest rate any offense saw of the 32 teams this week, with the median at 33. Last season this offense saw five or more on 31 percent of its dropbacks, and last week Buffalo sent it on 33. On the 60 dropbacks with a charted rush, the Bengals sent four or fewer on 54, and the throws came out harder, not easier. 16 of Stroud's 55 were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving at the ball together. That is 29 percent. Across his 426 charted throws last regular season it was 13. The team figure, which includes the holder's throw on the broken field goal, was 16 of 56, the fourth-highest contested share of the 32 offenses this week.

Charters marked 32 of Stroud's 55 throws catchable, 58 percent, against 69 for him last season. As a team Houston was catchable on 57 percent of its throws, second-lowest of the 32 this week, with only the Giants lower. What the charting does not show is recklessness. One throw charted interception-worthy, two percent, under his three percent last season, and a week after none on 38 throws. Four throwaways. No drops by his receivers on the 32 catchable balls. Counting his three scrambles, he left the pocket on 13 of his 60 dropbacks, 22 percent, the same 22 percent as last regular season. And the Recap counted four sacks; the charting puts none of them on Stroud, the second straight week with no sack charted as his fault, after 10 last season. So this was not a quarterback throwing the ball away to the other team. It was a passing game whose throws kept arriving with a defender there too.

The play design around those throws changed too. Houston used play-action on nine of 61 dropbacks, 15 percent, fourth-lowest of the 32 teams this week, against 23 percent last season and 21 last week. Stroud's nine play-action throws went four for 74 yards. His other 46 went 26 for 279. Screens: one on 61 dropbacks, two percent, second-lowest in the league this week, ahead of only the Chargers, after five percent last season and seven last week. Play-action did not bring easier windows on Sunday, either: three of Stroud's nine play-action throws were contested, against 13 of his other 46.

The tempo is the figure that has now moved the same way twice. Houston went no-huddle on 10 of its 76 snaps, 13 percent, the third-highest rate of the 32 teams this week behind Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Last season it was four percent. Last week, eight, tenth in the league. Motion stayed below last season both weeks: 36 of 98 charted plays this week, 37 percent, 20-third of the 32, and 35 percent last week, against 44 across last season. Watch for it on Sunday: this offense is skipping the huddle more and moving people before the snap less than it did a year ago.

The run game is where Week 2 contradicts Week 1 head on. Last week Buffalo put six or fewer in the box on only 13 percent of Houston's designed runs, the second-fewest light boxes any offense saw, and those runs gained a hundred nine yards on 31 tries. This week Cincinnati showed a light box on eight of 15 designed runs, 53 percent, tenth-highest of the 32, close to the 50 percent this offense saw across last season. The average box was 6.7, against 6.6 last season. Lighter boxes, and the 15 designed runs gained 31 yards. 2.1 yards a run, second-lowest of the 32 offenses this week, with only Cleveland lower. Last week the run game faced a heavy box and had a modest day. This week there was no heavy box to point to.

The defense repeated what it did in Week 1, and last week this show said that was the figure to watch first. Houston sent five or more rushers on seven of Cincinnati's 36 dropbacks, 19 percent, the fourth-lowest rate of the 32 defenses this week. Last week, about 16 percent. Last season, 23. It is loading the box instead. Six or fewer on four of Cincinnati's 22 designed runs, 18 percent, fourth-lowest of the 32, after 32 percent last week and 54 across last season. Those 22 runs went for 86 yards, 3.9 a run, right on the league median. The ball charting is close to last season's: four of Burrow's 31 throws contested, 13 percent, tied for fourteenth, level with last season's 13, after three percent last week. 23 catchable, 74 percent, tied for eleventh, against 67 last season. Cincinnati's receivers dropped two of those 23, near the 10 percent opponents dropped against Houston last season. What is missing is the takeaway material. Zero interception-worthy throws this week and one last week, on 60 opponent throws across the two games. Last regular season this defense drew interception-worthy balls on nearly five percent of throws and finished with 19 interceptions. The Recap counted five sacks this week, and the charting charges one of them to Burrow. Last regular season 27 of this defense's sacks were charted as the quarterback's fault.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Dalton Schultz led Houston with 20: 12 catches on 14 targets for a hundred 40 yards. Stroud, 17, 30 of 55 for 353 three carries for 29. Woody Marks caught five of six for 27 and ran eight times for eight yards, six points. David Montgomery ran six times for 10 yards, a week after 20 carries for 60. Xavier Hutchinson caught three of nine targets for 37. For Cincinnati, Ja'Marr Chase scored 23 on seven catches for 75 and both touchdowns, Burrow 16.2, and Tee Higgins caught five of 10 for 95.

One caution that holds through Week 3. Everything here measures Sunday against last season's Texans, a roster that has changed in places and aged a year everywhere else. That comparison tells you what was unusual. It does not tell you what is true. Week 1 is last week, one game, not a season rate. Around Week 4 this show starts comparing Houston to its own 2026 weeks.

So, what repeats, with two games that settle nothing on their own. Moving the same way twice: the defense rushing four and crowding the box, no-huddle up, motion down, Stroud with no sacks charted his fault and one interception-worthy throw in two games, and a defense that has drawn one interception-worthy ball in two games. Reversed: the boxes the run game saw, and five-or-more rushers against Stroud, which went from a third of his dropbacks to one in 10.

The thread, for anyone joining now. Houston went 12 five last season behind a defense that was first against the pass by expected points per play, while the offense was fifteenth passing and thirtieth running. This season it lost 36 to 31 to Buffalo and 20 to six to Cincinnati, both at home. In the notebook: a defense that has changed how it rushes, two weeks running, and has drawn one interception-worthy throw in two games. A quarterback who has been careful with it, twice. And a run game that has now faced a heavy box and a light one, and gained three and a half yards a designed run against the heavy one and two against the light one.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._