Texans, Week 3 — What Repeats: Stroud's Contested Rate Hit 44%

12 of C.J. Stroud's 27 throws on Sunday were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving at the ball together. That is 44 percent, the highest rate of any offense in the league in Week 3. The league median was 12. And it has climbed each week since the opener. Against Buffalo it was 13 percent. Against Cincinnati, 30. In Indianapolis, 44. Last season Stroud's contested rate was 13 percent, one throw in eight. On Sunday it was nearly one throw in two.

His accuracy is not what moved. Charters marked 18 of the 27 catchable, 67 percent, a little under the league median this week and about where he was last season at 69. He threw no interception-worthy balls, a ball a defender should have caught. That makes one in three games, on a hundred 18 throws. The first drop of Houston's season came in the second quarter, down 10 to nothing: second and eight from the Houston 34, a short throw to Jared Wayne that hit the ground. One drop on 18 catchable balls.

And the rush was not the reason the windows were tight. Indianapolis sent five or more pass rushers on five of Houston's 31 dropbacks. That is 16 percent, 20-ninth of the 32 offenses this week. A week earlier Cincinnati sent five or more on 10 percent, the lowest rate in the league that week. Last season Houston saw five or more on 30 percent of its dropbacks. So for the second straight week the defense across from Stroud mostly rushed four and the throws still arrived with company. All three sacks came against a four-man rush, and the charting charges none of them to Stroud. That is the third straight game with no sack charted as his fault, after 13 of this offense's 31 sacks were last season.

Play-action stayed where it was a year ago, and the rest of the design did not. Seven of 31 dropbacks carried a fake, 23 percent, twentieth in the league this week and matching last season's 23. Stroud completed five of the seven for 55 yards, and four of the seven came in the fourth quarter, when Houston scored 10 of its 17 points. Screens: none, on 31 dropbacks, tied for last with Baltimore and Cincinnati. The tempo this show flagged twice reversed on Sunday. Houston went no-huddle on zero snaps, one of seven offenses at zero this week, after 13 percent last week, one of the highest rates in the league. And motion went the other way from the first two weeks: 32 of 70 charted plays, 46 percent, the first week above last season's 44.

The box was heavy again. The Colts put seven or more defenders in the box on 17 of Houston's 20 designed runs, and eight or more on eight of them. Six or fewer on three, 15 percent, thirtieth of the 32 offenses this week. Last season this offense saw a light box half the time. The average box was seven and a half men, against 6.6 a year ago. Those 20 designed runs gained 62 yards, 3.1 a run, 20-third in the league this week. Three games in: a heavy box and three and a half a run against Buffalo, a light box and two a run against Cincinnati, a heavy box and 3.1 on Sunday. The box has not decided the yardage either way.

The defense changed the plan this show had in the notebook. Houston sent five or more rushers on 13 of the Colts' 41 dropbacks, 32 percent, tenth in the league this week. In the first two weeks it was 16 19 percent, 20-seventh and 20-ninth. Last season, 23. So the four-man plan lasted two weeks. Three of the four sacks still came with four rushers; the strip-sack at the Houston 39 with four 45 left came on one of the 13 with five. None of the four charted as Jones's fault. The box stayed on the heavy side: six or fewer on 10 of 30 Colts designed runs, 33 percent, tied for twentieth, and the third straight week under last season's 54. Those 30 runs gained 88 yards, 2.9 a run, the eighth-lowest any defense allowed this week.

Indianapolis faked a handoff on 14 of 41 dropbacks, 34 percent, the fourth-highest play-action rate in the league this week and well over the 22 percent Houston's opponents used last season. It did not pay. Jones's 13 play-action throws went eight for 52 yards, four yards a throw. His other 23 went 16 for a hundred 83, eight a throw. Eight of his 36 throws were contested, 22 percent, eighth in the league, after three percent against Buffalo and 13 against Cincinnati. And the takeaway material finally arrived. Two interception-worthy throws, six percent of throws, tied for eighth with Kansas City, after one in the first two games combined. The Recap told the interception. The other was the same throw two quarters earlier: first quarter, first and 10 at the Indianapolis 31, Colts up three to nothing, deep left for Josh Downs, incomplete.

The stat lines have settled, scored half-PPR. Stroud: 16 of 27 for a hundred 67 and a touchdown, two carries for 10, 11.7. Woody Marks ran five times for 15 and the touchdown and caught his one target for six, 8.6. Foster Moreau caught two of four for seven yards and the other score, 7.7. Xavier Hutchinson, three of six for 51, seven even. David Montgomery ran 11 times for 33 and caught two for 15, 5.8. For the Colts, Keenan Allen caught six of nine for 63 and the touchdown, 15.3. Tyler Warren, nine catches on 10 targets for 55. Jonathan Taylor ran 23 times for 68, 8.2.

One last time on the yardstick. Everything above is measured against last season's Texans, a different roster. From next week this show measures Houston against its own 2026 games.

The thread, from the top. Houston went 12 five last season with the league's best pass defense by expected points added per play, which is what a snap was worth given the down, distance and field position, and an offense that ranked thirtieth running the ball. This season it is oh and three: 36 to 31 to Buffalo and 20 to six to Cincinnati, both at home, then 19 to 17 in Indianapolis. Last week's notebook had three lines. A defense rushing four and crowding the box: half of it held. The box stayed heavy, and the five-or-more rate went from the bottom six of the league to the top 10. A quarterback careful with the ball: held, no interception-worthy throws and no sack his fault, and it now comes with a contested rate that has risen each week since the opener. A run game that gets what it gets whatever the box: held, 3.1 a run against a heavy one. New in the notebook: a defense that drew two interception-worthy throws in one game after one in two, and a tempo that went from near the top of the league to zero. Next up, the Cowboys at home.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._