Texans 30, Cowboys 34 — Week 4: Passed for 347, Lost With :43 Left

Second and 10 at the Houston 12, 43 seconds left, Texans up 30 to 27. Dak Prescott threw short over the middle to CeeDee Lamb for a 12-yard touchdown. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, that snap moved 29 points Dallas's way, the biggest swing of the game. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, it was +3.4. It was Lamb's 20-first target of the afternoon. The Texans lost 34 to 30 at home, are oh and four, and lost on the day their passing game was the best it has been all season.

Start there, because the passing game smashed. 31 pass plays, two of them sacks, were worth +15 expected points, plus point five per play. Over the first three weeks this passing game ran at minus point one per play; at that rate those 31 plays would have been worth about −2 and a half. 61 percent were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Stroud threw for 347 yards and two touchdowns with no turnovers, 21 completions on 29 throws +2 spikes. The play that tells it came with Houston up 16 to 13 in the third. Jaylin Noel had just run the kickoff back 53 yards to the Dallas 38, and four snaps later it was second and six at the 22. Stroud threw deep right for Nico Collins, 22 yards, touchdown, with an unnecessary-roughness penalty on Dallas enforced after the score. +2.5 expected points, 23 to 13. Collins, back in the box score for the first time since Week 1, caught seven of eight for a hundred 18 yards and both Houston touchdown passes.

The design changed with it. Houston faked a handoff on 11 of 33 dropbacks, 33 percent, the fourth-highest play-action rate of the 30 charted offenses this week, after 19 percent across the first three weeks. Stroud went seven of 10 for a hundred 53 yards on those throws, almost exactly the hundred 59 he had on 25 play-action throws in Weeks 1 through 3 combined. Pre-snap motion was on 59 percent of charted plays, fifth this week, against 38 before. Charters marked 79 percent of his throws catchable, against 64 over the first three weeks. 10 of 29 were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, 34 percent, above the 28 of the first three weeks. Dallas sent five or more pass rushers on nine of 33 dropbacks, 27 percent, more than the 19 Houston had seen before, and neither sack was charted as Stroud's fault.

The run game did not follow. Five of 19 rush plays were successful, 26 percent, and the 19 were worth −3.1 expected points, a little worse than the first three weeks' rate, which would have made them about −2. The 17 designed runs gained 50 yards, 2.9 a run, against 3.1 before. Dallas showed six or fewer defenders on three of the 17, 18 percent, the lowest light-box rate any of the 30 charted offenses faced this week. David Montgomery carried 10 times for 24 yards with no first down and nothing longer than six. Woody Marks had six for 22 and the touchdown that put Houston ahead with two 26 left.

The pass defense gave back what the offense built. 48 Dallas pass plays, three of them sacks, were worth +9.8 expected points; on defense a positive number is the bad direction. At this defense's rate over the first three weeks, those 48 plays would have cost about +3 and a half. Prescott completed 32 of 45 for 335 yards, 21 of them thrown to Lamb. The rush plan went back down: Houston sent five or more on eight of 50 dropbacks, 16 percent, 20-sixth of the 30 charted defenses, after 23 percent across the first three weeks. The coverage got to the ball. 15 of Prescott's 45 throws were contested, 33 percent, against 14 percent for Houston's first three opponents, and Prescott threw two interception-worthy balls, throws a defender should have caught. Houston caught neither. The three sacks all came in the first half, the last a nine-yard loss shared by Anderson and Hunter that pushed Dallas back to a 65-yard field goal try that missed. Anderson had also blocked a 62-yard try earlier in the quarter.

The run defense's number is three touchdowns. 25 Dallas rush plays were worth plus point seven expected points, against a first-three-weeks rate that would have made them about −3, and Javonte Williams scored on runs of eight, one and two yards. Between the twenties it held: 23 designed runs gained 68 yards, three a run, a little under the 3.4 Houston allowed before. Inside the 20 it did not. Dallas ran 13 red-zone snaps and scored four touchdowns. The third-quarter series was the long one. Down 23 to 13, Dallas had first and 10 at the Houston 11. Williams ran for six to the five, then lost three. A pass interference call on third down put the ball at the one, Clowney dropped Williams for a loss of three, and after an incompletion and a one-yard Prescott scramble it was fourth and three at the three. Prescott's throw fell incomplete, and a holding call on Houston put the ball back at the one. Williams went up the middle on the next snap. The third-down defense stopped nine of 14; the goal line gave it up in the end.

The turning point was the fourth quarter's first Houston possession, down 27 to 23. Third and three at the Houston 42, nine 31 left, and Stroud was sacked for a loss of 11. −2.5 expected points and 11 points of win probability, and a punt. A holding call wiped out an eight-yard Marks run to the Dallas 15, a 14-point swing in win probability, and the drive faced third and 14 at the 27. Stroud threw short right to Dalton Schultz, Schultz pitched it to Montgomery, and Montgomery ran it out of bounds at the six: 21 yards, +24 points of win probability, the biggest gain on any Houston snap. Marks scored on the next play. Then Dallas started at its own 26 with two 15 left. Houston stopped Lamb for a loss of three on third and one, and Prescott converted fourth and four with a seven-yard throw to Jake Ferguson. A 22-yard throw to George Pickens reached the 12, and Lamb did the rest.

Last week's notebook had two new lines. The defense that drew two interception-worthy throws in one game did it again, and this time caught neither. The tempo that went to zero stayed at zero: no no-huddle snaps, after eight percent across the first three weeks. The question for next week is the play-action passing game. 10 throws for a hundred 53 yards is one game against a defense that rushed four or fewer on most dropbacks; whether Houston keeps faking a third of the time, and whether the box stays heavy while it does, is the line in the notebook.

The stat lines, scored half-PPR. Collins, seven catches for a hundred 18 two touchdowns, 27.3. Stroud, 23.1. Noel, three catches for 85, 10.4. Marks, 8.2. Montgomery, 10 carries for 24 +19 yards on the lateral, 4.3. For Dallas, Lamb 17 for a hundred 89 and the winner, 32.8; Williams 19 carries for 62 three touchdowns +5 catches, 28.8; Prescott 18.1.

That's your Texans — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Texans show wherever you're listening, so next week's episode lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._