Texans 26, Titans 3 — Week 5: Fairbairn's Four, Stroud's 26 of 34

Houston beat Tennessee 26-3 on the road on Sunday for its first win of the season, and is 1-4. The offense had eight drives: two touchdowns, four Ka'imi Fairbairn field goals from 45, 35, 26 and 53 yards, no turnovers and no three-and-outs. The defense took the ball away twice with the game within a field goal and gave up only a 30-yard field goal on the Titans' opening drive.

The passing game was Smashed by expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position, against what the situation was already worth. Its 36 pass plays were worth +10.5 EPA, +0.29 a play, against +0.03 a play through Week 4. Of those, 52.8% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. C.J. Stroud completed 26 of 34 for 261 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions. One throw opened the game up. Up 12-3 on the first drive of the second half, third and 11 at his own 36, Stroud went deep right to Kayshon Boutte for 23 yards before Boutte was pushed out at the Titans 41. That was +3.2 EPA. Nico Collins converted third and 2 with a 6-yard catch to the 16, and Stroud ran it in himself from the 2 for 19-3. To open the fourth, third and 8 at the Titans 9, he hit Jaylin Noel short left for the touchdown, +3.2 EPA, and 26-3.

The charting says the ball was the cleanest it has been. 27 of Stroud's 34 throws were catchable, 79.4%, against 66.7% through Week 4. Five were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, 14.7%, after 29.3% through Week 4. Noel caught all 5 of his targets for 41 yards, Xavier Hutchinson 4 of 5 for 65 and Collins 5 of 7 for 56. Screens rose to 5 of 36 dropbacks, 13.9%, after 6 in the first four weeks combined. Tennessee sent five or more on 8 of 36 dropbacks, 22.2%, close to the 20.4% this offense saw through Week 4.

The run game struggled against the lightest fronts it has seen. Tennessee showed six or fewer in the box on 17 of 25 designed runs, 68%, against 21.7% through Week 4, and those 25 runs gained 81 yards. 25 rush plays were worth -2.5 EPA, -0.10 a play against -0.12 through Week 4, with 36% successful. Woody Marks ran 15 times for 62 yards and David Montgomery 5 for 11. 10 red-zone snaps produced two touchdowns.

The pass defense was Smashed, and the success rate allowed tells it: only 37.5% of Tennessee's 40 pass plays were successful. Those plays were worth -16.9 EPA, -0.42 a play, against +0.12 allowed through Week 4; on defense a negative number is the good direction, and this was a big one. Cam Ward went 23 of 36 for 170 yards with no touchdowns. The defense did it without extra pressure, sending five or more on 7 of 41 dropbacks, 17.1%, against 20.8% through Week 4. Down 6-3 with 12:17 left in the second, first and 10 at midfield, Ward threw short middle for Tony Pollard. Jake Hansen intercepted at the Houston 40 and returned it 19 yards to the Titans 41. That was -5.8 EPA for Tennessee and 16.5 points of win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning, the largest swing of the game. Fairbairn's 26-yarder followed. In the fourth, Will Anderson Jr. sacked Ward on fourth and 20 for 14 yards and on fourth and 19 for 13, ending both of Tennessee's fourth-quarter drives on downs.

The run defense was Smashed too, holding Tennessee to 57 yards on 18 rush plays. Those plays were worth -5.6 EPA, -0.31 a play against -0.08 allowed through Week 4, with 38.9% successful. Houston showed six or fewer in the box on 10 of 17 designed runs, 58.8%, against 29.8% through Week 4, and those runs gained 55 yards. Pollard needed 14 carries for 52. Tied 3-3 with 1:49 left in the first, second and 4 at the Titans 38, Tyjae Spears ran at left tackle, Dominique Robinson forced a fumble and Jalen Pitre recovered at the 35. That was -5.5 EPA for Tennessee and 15.5 points of win probability. Fairbairn's 35-yarder made it 6-3.

The game turned on those two takeaways, on consecutive Tennessee possessions, which turned 3-3 into 9-3. Then Houston opened the second half with a drive that ran to 6:43 of the third and ended in Stroud's touchdown, 19-3. The offense converted 6 of 12 third downs, including Dalton Schultz's 14-yard catch on third and 2 in the first quarter, worth 9.1 points of win probability, on the drive to the tying field goal. The defense stopped Tennessee on 7 of 11 third downs and allowed no touchdowns on three red-zone snaps.

The scheme added play-action and motion. Houston faked on 9 of 36 dropbacks, 25%, against 21.6% through Week 4, though Stroud completed 5 of 8 play-action throws for 46 yards, after 21 of 35 for 312 through Week 4. Pre-snap motion rose to 50% of charted plays from 42.8%. No-huddle nearly disappeared, 1.6% of snaps after 6.4%. Stroud left the pocket 6 times on 36 dropbacks, after 36 times on 166.

Last week's question was whether Houston kept faking at the rate it did against Dallas, and whether the box stayed heavy while it did. The play-action stayed above its early-season rate without matching the Dallas game. The box went the other way: Tennessee played light on 68% of designed runs, and Houston gained 81 yards on 25 of them. The one to watch next: whether Stroud's contested rate stays near this 14.7% after 29.3% through Week 4, and whether the run game starts to punish light boxes.

That's your Texans, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Texans on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._