Texans 21, Giants 27 — Week 7: Run Over in Overtime

Houston lost 27-21 in overtime at home to the Giants, beaten on the ground: New York ran 34 times for 188 yards and four touchdowns, and the last two snaps of the game covered 72 of those yards. The Texans led only at 3-0. They came back to tie twice, on a two-point conversion before halftime and on C.J. Stroud's 3-yard touchdown pass with 57 seconds left in regulation, then went three-and-out to open overtime. 10 drives produced two touchdowns, two Ka'imi Fairbairn field goals from 58 and 57, four three-and-outs and no turnovers.

The passing game fell well short of its standard, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures the drop. Its 29 pass plays were worth -1.5 EPA, -0.05 a play against +0.13 through Week 6, and only 34.5% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Stroud completed 17 of 28 for 153 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, his fewest yards of the season, and was sacked once. Nico Collins caught 2 of 5 targets for 6 yards. The best of it came down 14-6 with 2:00 left in the half: first and 20 at his own 27, Stroud found Tank Dell deep over the middle for 43 yards, +2.66 EPA. Dalton Schultz's 17-yard catch reached the 6, and on third and 6 Stroud hit Marvin Harrison Jr. for the touchdown, +3.61 EPA and 10 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. A throw to Cade Stover tied it at 14.

The run game stayed below even its own low bar, and success rate tells it: 40% of 25 rush plays succeeded, for 84 yards and no touchdowns. Together they were worth -3.0 EPA, -0.12 a play against -0.10 through Week 6. Woody Marks carried 19 times for 66 yards and -5.2 EPA. Stopped on third and 1 at the Houston 42 in the third quarter, tied 14-14,, the offense went for it, and Stroud's 2-yard push was worth +2.35 EPA. Marks lost 3 on the next snap and the ball came out; New York returned it 41 yards for a touchdown before replay ruled him down.

The pass defense lost on the long ball, and the gap between two figures shows it: only 30% of New York's 30 pass plays succeeded, yet they were worth +5.4 EPA, +0.18 a play against +0.05 allowed through Week 6. On defense a positive number is bad. J.J. McCarthy, in his first start of the season, completed 20 of 27 for 252 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions, and four completions went for 27 yards or more: Malachi Fields for 47 on second and 17, Malik Nabers for 42 to the 2, Thomas Fidone II for 29 to the 1 and Nabers for 27 to the 30. Two set up touchdowns. Nabers finished with 7 catches for 111. Danielle Hunter and Kamari Lassiter had a sack each, and M.J. Stewart and Henry To'oTo'o split a third.

The run defense was Muffed, and total EPA allowed puts a number on it: New York's 34 rush plays were worth +10.2, +0.30 a play against -0.09 allowed through Week 6, and half of them succeeded. Here, too, positive is the bad direction. Cam Skattebo ran 17 times for 124 yards and a touchdown, Devin Singletary 5 for 41 and the winner, and Jameis Winston, used only in short yardage, 4 for 4 with a 1-yard touchdown. The drive that put New York ahead started at its own 20 with 2:13 left in the third, tied 14-14, and ran 14 plays. Skattebo converted third and 1 with a 19-yard run and third and 1 again with 2 yards; Winston pushed for 1 on fourth and 1 at the Houston 32; Fields caught 14 on third and 9. On first and 10 at the 16, Skattebo ran through the right side 16 yards for the touchdown, +2.12 EPA and 18.9 points of win probability for 21-14.

The game turned in overtime, and Houston had the ball first. From its own 35, Marks was stopped for no gain, a short throw over the middle for Xavier Hutchinson fell incomplete, and on third and 10 so did one for Harrison, -12.1 points of win probability. Kai Kroeger's 55-yard punt was returned to the New York 19. After a 9-yard catch by Nabers, on second and 1 Skattebo ran up the middle for 42 yards to the Houston 30, +2.43 EPA and 28.8 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game, and Singletary went 30 yards up the middle on the next snap. The offense converted 3 of 12 third downs. The defense stopped 7 of 12, and Dominic Zvada's misses from 56 and 44 kept the first half close.

Last week's notebook asked whether the pass defense would get home when it sent extra rushers. The blitz count waits for the charting; the sacks came back, three of McCarthy after none at Jacksonville, but the deep completions cost more than they saved. The one to watch next: whether a run defense that allowed +0.30 a play here, after -0.09 through Week 6, gets back to its standard.

That's your Texans, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Texans on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._