Colts 23, Ravens 41 — Week 1: Eighty-Eight Passing Yards in the First Half

Indianapolis took the opening kickoff on Sunday and went 65 yards in nine plays — Daniel Jones to Josh Downs for 25 on third and three, then for 12 on third and eight, then Jonathan Taylor around right end from the one — and led six to nothing at Lucas Oil Stadium. From there Baltimore scored the next 28 points. 41 to 23, Ravens, and the Colts trailed on 89 percent of the plays in this game. The two numbers that explain it are 88 205: 88 passing yards on 19 pass plays in the first half, and 205 rushing yards allowed.

Start with the passing game, because it was the unit the game was decided against. 33 pass plays, a hundred 66 yards, one touchdown, one interception, two sacks, and −15 expected points added. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position; for an offense a negative number means the plays left the team worse off than before it ran them. −15 on 33 is the second-worst figure per pass play of the 16 teams in Sunday's early games, and 12 of the 33 plays were successful, a 36 percent rate that is fourteenth of the 16. The first half was 19 pass plays, 88 yards, and −12. The interception was second and 12 at the Indianapolis 28 with seven 38 left in the first quarter, down seven to six, short middle for Laquon Treadwell, Roquan Smith at the 32. 16 points of win probability on one throw, the biggest swing of the game, and Baltimore scored six plays later. The other giveaway was Taylor's, after a 14-yard catch with six 47 left in the half: Marlon Humphrey knocked it out and recovered it at the Indianapolis 47, and Derrick Henry scored from 32 three plays after that. The one passing touchdown was Jones to Tyler Warren for nine with 10 32 left in the game, down 38 to 16. Indianapolis converted three of 10 third downs.

The run game was the good unit, and it was third of the 16 by expected points per carry. 20 rushing plays, a hundred two yards, two touchdowns, +2 and a half expected points, and 10 of the 20 successful — tied for third-best. Taylor scored from the one and, on third and three with two 18 left in the half, from the three behind right tackle, four plays after DeForest Buckner had recovered a Lamar Jackson fumble at the Baltimore 15. Taylor's 21-yard run from the Indianapolis four with four 24 left in the third was the Colts' longest run of the day. Eight snaps inside the Baltimore 20 produced three touchdowns, third-best of the early-game teams.

Now the run defense, because 205 yards is where the game went. 34 Baltimore carries, 205 yards, four touchdowns, and +9 and a half expected points allowed — on defense a big negative number is the good direction, and +9 and a half is fifteenth of the 16. 16 of the 34 were successful, which is a middling rate; the damage was the long ones and the touchdowns. Henry went 32 yards around left tackle for a touchdown with five 12 left in the half, and 22 around left tackle in the third. Jackson scored from the five around left end on second and five in the first quarter and scrambled 16 yards on third and 16 to keep the next touchdown drive alive. The pass defense allowed 324 yards on 26 Baltimore pass plays, +10 expected points, twelfth of the 16, and three of those plays went for 49, 54 53 yards — Zay Flowers to the two, Flowers for a touchdown short middle on second and nine with seven oh four left in the half, and Chris Moore deep left on third and five to open the fourth quarter. What the defense did do: it stopped Baltimore on fourth and three at the Indianapolis three with 12 oh seven left in the half, Jackson's pass for Ja'Kobi Lane incomplete, three expected points saved. Arden Key and Laiatu Latu split the sack that produced the fumble at the Baltimore 15. And Buckner and Grover Stewart split a sack in the third. The Colts stopped five of eight third downs.

One more in the ledger: Spencer Shrader made a 58-yard field goal with eight minutes left in the third, and Baltimore was flagged 10 times for 86 yards to the Colts' four for 29.

Now the part where a Week 1 episode has to be honest about what it is. The ranks in this episode are against the 16 teams that played in the early window on Sunday, not the whole league. What there is, is last year. In 2025 this offense finished ninth in the league in expected points per play, third on the ground, and third in touchdowns per red-zone snap, and the team won eight games. On Sunday the run game and the red zone looked like that unit — third of 16, and third of the 15 early-game teams that had a red-zone snap — and the passing game, twelfth a year ago, was fifteenth of 16. The defense finished sixteenth in expected points allowed per play and 20-sixth in third-down stops; on Sunday it stopped five of eight third downs and allowed 205 on the ground. If you want one sentence out of this: the run game and the red zone are the same team, the passing game had a first half that decided the game, and one afternoon against one opponent tells you it happened, not that it will keep happening.

Indianapolis is at Kansas City next Sunday night. Watch the passing game's first quarter, and watch the run defense, in that order.

That's your Colts — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Colts show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse._