Colts, Week 1 — What Repeats: Half the Light Boxes, 167 Yards

The Colts showed a light box — six or fewer defenders — on nine of Baltimore's 31 designed runs on Sunday. 29 percent. Across all of last season, offenses running against this defense saw a light box 57 percent of the time, so that is about half the light boxes this unit showed a year ago, with an average of 6.7 defenders in the box, and the 31 designed runs still went for a hundred and 67 yards. Next to it, Baltimore used play-action on 10 of 29 dropbacks — 35 percent, the fifth-highest rate in the league this week — and Lamar Jackson's seven play-action throws went six for a hundred and 19 yards. The Recap had the 205 on the ground. The box counts say Indianapolis showed far fewer light boxes than usual, and the run and the fake both went for yardage anyway.

The passing game the Recap said decided this has a charting shape worth reading slowly. Charters marked 24 of Daniel Jones's 31 throws catchable — 77 percent, the eighth-highest rate of any offense in the league this week, above a median of 71 and above the 72 Jones posted across his 389 charted throws last season. His receivers dropped three of those 24 catchable balls, 12 and a half percent of them; across all of last season this offense dropped under five percent of its catchable throws. Nine of his 31 throws were contested — a defender arriving with the receiver — which is 29 percent, against 16 percent for Jones a year ago. One throw was charted interception-worthy, three percent, the eighteenth-highest rate this week and a hair under the median; the game had one interception, and the pack cannot say whether it was that throw. 77 percent catchable, and a hundred and 66 yards came out of it, with three drops and nine contested throws behind that number.

Play-action, a big part of last season, was mostly missing. Indianapolis used it on six of 34 dropbacks — 18 percent, 20-fifth-highest in the league this week against a median of 21. Across all of last season it was 28 percent, and it was the productive part of Jones's year: a hundred and 20 play-action throws, 86 completions, 1125 yards. On Sunday he threw four play-action passes, completed two, for 15 yards. Part of that is the score. A team that trailed on 89 percent of its plays has less use for play-action, and the Colts went no-huddle on 13 percent of their snaps after five percent last season.

The run game stayed itself, on a small sample. Baltimore showed a light box on 12 of 19 designed Colts runs — 63 percent, tied for seventh-highest in the league this week with Cleveland — and last season this offense saw a light box 62 percent of the time. Same look: 19 designed runs for 98 yards, and Jonathan Taylor ran 19 times for 98 two touchdowns. Motion went up, 38 of 71 charted plays, 54 percent, sixth in the league this week and level with Baltimore to the whole percent, after 43 percent last season. Screens were three of 34 dropbacks, nine percent, after five last season.

The pass rush changed too, and bought the least. Indianapolis sent five or more rushers on 11 of Baltimore's 29 dropbacks — 38 percent, the seventh-highest rate in the league this week against a median of 27. Last season this defense sent five or more on 28 percent, so that is a 10-point rise, and the average was four and a half rushers per dropback. What came back for it: 18 of Jackson's 25 throws were catchable, and five of the 25 were contested, 20 percent, up from 12 percent for everyone who threw against this defense a year ago. Tighter windows than this defense usually forced, two sacks, one of them a fumble — and one interception-worthy throw, no interceptions, no sacks charted as Jackson's fault, and 324 passing yards allowed.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Taylor led the team with 23.6 — 19 carries for 98 two touchdowns, +3 catches for 23 on four targets. Jones, nine even: 19 of 31 for a hundred and 66, a touchdown and an interception. Tyler Warren three catches for 13 on five targets and the touchdown, 8.8. Alec Pierce four for 61 on six targets, 8.1. Josh Downs two catches for 37 on four targets. For Baltimore, Derrick Henry ran 24 times for a hundred and 44 three touchdowns and caught one for 19, 34.8; Jackson was 17 of 25 for 324 and a touchdown with seven carries for 40 and a score, 25 even; and Zay Flowers caught five for a hundred and 50 on six targets with a touchdown, 23 and a half.

Before the thread, a note on the yardstick, because this show's name is a promise it cannot keep in September. There has been one game. Every comparison above is to all of last season — a roster that has changed in places, a year older everywhere, a different job for some of these players. That is the only baseline that exists through Week 3, and what it tells you is which parts of Sunday were unusual. It does not tell you which parts are true. The version of this show that measures the Colts against their own recent weeks starts around Week 4, and until then we will name the comparison each time we make one.

The thread starts here, so here is the whole of it. A year ago this offense finished ninth in the league in expected points per play and third on the ground, the passing game twelfth, the defense sixteenth in expected points allowed per play. Three things go in the notebook. A quarterback whose catchable rate was above his own norm and whose receivers dropped three balls behind it. Jones's play-action throws, over 1100 yards last season and 15 on Sunday, which is partly the scoreboard and partly not. And a defense that sent five or more rushers 10 points more often than last season and showed half its usual light boxes, and got tighter windows and two sacks for it while giving up 324 through the air and a hundred and 67 on the designed runs. One afternoon says all three happened. It does not say they will keep happening.

That's your Colts — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Colts show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._