Colts 30, Chiefs 33 — Week 2: Thirty Points Was Not Enough

First and 10 at the Kansas City 17, four 50 left in overtime, down 30 to 27. Daniel Jones had just thrown deep middle to Laquon Treadwell for 48 yards, a play first ruled a fumble recovered by the Chiefs and then reversed on review. Kansas City had already kicked its field goal on the first possession of overtime, so a touchdown from the 17 wins it. Jonathan Taylor ran left end and lost one. Taylor ran left guard and lost two. On third and 13 Jones scrambled for five. A delay of game moved the kick back five more, and Spencer Shrader hit from 38 to tie it at 30. The Chiefs got the ball back with three 11 left, and Harrison Butker kicked a 40-yarder with one second on the overtime clock. Indianapolis lost 33 to 30 in Kansas City on Sunday night, and the Colts are zero and two.

Start with the defense, because 30 points on the road should be enough. Kansas City gained 534 yards, the most any of the 30 teams that have played this week has allowed. 382 of them came through the air, also the most allowed so far this week. By expected points added — what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth — 49 Chiefs pass plays came to +13.4. On defense a positive number is the bad direction, and that total was 20-fifth of the 30 teams that have played. At the rate this pass defense allowed last season, when it ranked nineteenth, those same 49 plays would have been worth about +2. The damage came on the downs a defense is supposed to win. Kansas City faced six third downs needing seven yards or more and converted two, and both were Patrick Mahomes deep right to Tyquan Thornton: 45 yards on third and 11 in the third quarter, down to the Indianapolis one, and 30 yards on third and 12 from the Kansas City 30 on the first drive of overtime. The drives those two snaps rescued produced 10 points. The defense did not force a turnover.

The run defense opens on a rate. 59 percent of Kansas City's 29 rush plays were successful, meaning they kept the offense on schedule, and that is the third-highest success rate any run game has posted so far this week. Those plays were worth +4.4 expected points; per play, only Cleveland and Detroit defended the run worse among the 30 teams that have played. Last season this was the ninth-ranked run defense by that measure, and at last season's rate the same 29 plays would have been worth about −1.4. It got heavier as the night went on. Six Chiefs rush plays for 39 yards in the first half, 23 for a hundred 13 after it, overtime included. The credit belongs at the goal line: from the one-yard line in the third quarter, the defense stopped Kenneth Walker for no gain three straight times. On fourth and one, Mahomes threw short right to Jalen Royals for the touchdown anyway.

The passing game is the reversal. Last week against Baltimore, 33 pass plays were worth −15.2 expected points, 30-first of 32 teams. On Sunday night 31 pass plays were worth +5.9, thirteenth of the 30 that have played this week. At the rate Kansas City's pass defense allowed last season, those 31 would have been worth about zero. 52 percent of them were successful, tied with Denver for eighth so far this week, and Jones was not sacked. Until overtime the longest completion was 20 yards, Jones deep left to Josh Downs on second and 11 during the drive that tied the game. Four of the five third-down conversions were throws to Downs, and none of them went for more than 11. The one mistake was expensive: second and six from the Indianapolis 14, up seven to three, Jones threw short left and Kristian Fulton intercepted it at the 16. On the second snap of the drive that followed, Travis Kelce scored from 13 yards out. By expected points it was the Colts' worst play of the night, −4.7, and it cost 15 points of win probability. Fulton gave some of it back, with two pass interference penalties on deep throws for Treadwell, 26 yards and 23, and both of those drives ended in points.

The run game split in two. 19 rush plays for 90 yards before halftime, 13 for 29 after it, overtime included. For the night, 32 rush plays were worth +3.9 expected points, fifth of 30 in total so far this week, against about +3 for last season's third-ranked run game on the same volume. The best of it: first and 10 at the Kansas City 24, a minute four left in the half, down 17 to 13, Taylor around right end for 24 yards and the touchdown. Both fourth-and-ones were converted on the ground, too — Taylor for three at left guard with an extra lineman reporting as eligible in the first quarter, and Jones up the middle for three at the Kansas City 25 in the fourth. But 17 of the 32 rush plays gained three yards or fewer, and the last two handoffs of the night lost one yard and then two.

10 drives, no three-and-outs — only Buffalo can also say that so far this week — and points on six of them. The drive that tied it in the fourth quarter was the offense at its best: down 27 to 20, the Colts took the ball with 14 15 left, converted that fourth and one and then a third and six, and Taylor scored around left end from five yards out with five 41 to go. The other side of the ledger is three field goals. One of them came after third and 11 at the Kansas City 25 became third and 21 on a delay of game and a false start, back to back, and Shrader hit from 49.

Then the end of regulation. Tied at 27, third and four at the Indianapolis 49 with 40 seconds left, incomplete. The Colts punted with 34 seconds to go, and the win probability model charged that snap at −16 points. Kansas City started at its own 16 with 24 seconds left, burned all three timeouts, and reached the Indianapolis 23 on a 31-yard completion to Rashee Rice that began with three seconds showing. The clock ran out with the ball there.

For anyone new to this show, here is where that sits. Last season Indianapolis went eight and nine with the league's third-ranked run game and twelfth-ranked passing game by expected points per play, a run defense that ranked ninth and a pass defense that ranked nineteenth. Week 1 was a 41 to 23 home loss to Baltimore in which the passing game ranked 30-first of 32 and the defense allowed 529 yards, more than anyone but Carolina. Week 2 fixed one of those and repeated the other. The passing game went from −15 expected points to +6. The defense allowed 534 yards, which makes a thousand 63 in two games, and the run defense that was ninth last season has now been thirtieth of 32 in Week 1 and 20-eighth of the 30 that have played in Week 2. Two games do not settle what a defense is. But the offense just scored 30 on the road without a three-and-out and lost, and that is the defense's line to own.

Indianapolis hosts Houston next Sunday. The Texans threw for 353 yards this week, second only to the Chiefs among the 30 teams that have played, so the pass defense gets tested again first.

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_Data via nflverse._