Colts 19, Texans 17 — Week 3: Three Giveaways, Four Field Goals

Third and six at the Houston 41, 24 seconds left, Colts down 17 to 16. Daniel Jones threw short left to Keenan Allen, and it was ruled a first down at the 35; replay reversed it to five yards, fourth and one at the Houston 36. Houston called its last timeout, and Spencer Shrader made it from 53 with 21 seconds left. By win probability — the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — that kick was worth 36 points, the biggest swing of the game. The Colts beat the Texans 19 to 17 at home for their first win of the season, on four Shrader field goals, after leading for about 48 minutes and losing the lead with one 50 left.

The lead of this episode is the defense, because it is the opposite of the first two weeks. 223 total yards allowed, the fewest of the 28 teams that have played so far this week. In Weeks 1 and 2 this defense allowed 509 523 — of the 92 team games played this season, the third- and second-most. The pass defense faced 30 Houston pass plays, three of them sacks, and held them to −3.1 expected points added. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, and on defense a negative number is the good direction. At the rate this pass defense allowed over the first two weeks, those 30 plays would have been worth about +9.3. At last season's rate, when it ranked nineteenth, about +1. 153 passing yards allowed after sacks, fourth-fewest of the 28 teams so far this week. Houston did not complete a pass of 20 yards until the fourth quarter, and on third and seven or longer it converted once in seven tries. The first sack came on Houston's third snap: third and seven, DeForest Buckner, and a punt.

The run defense opens on a fourth down. Houston had just taken the ball at the Indianapolis 40 on a strip-sack; three plays gained nine yards, and on fourth and one at the 31, nine 47 left in the first quarter, David Montgomery went off right tackle and got nothing. −4.2 expected points for Houston, and about eight points of win probability back to the Colts. For the game, 21 Houston rush plays gained 70 yards, fifth-fewest rushing yards of the 28 teams so far this week, for −1.6 expected points. At the rate this run defense allowed over Weeks 1 and 2, when it ranked thirtieth in the league both weeks, those 21 would have been worth about +4 and a half. At last season's rate, when it ranked in the top 10, about −1.

The giveaways are the other half of the story, and they nearly cost the game. Three, all on pass plays, a turnover margin of −3; among the 28 teams so far this week only Buffalo and New Orleans were worse. The first came on the Colts' fourth snap, first and 10 at their own 47, nothing to nothing: Will Anderson sacked Jones and the ball came out, −6.3 expected points and 16 points of win probability. The second, third and four at the Houston 28, 11 40 left in the third, up 13 to seven: Jones deep left for Josh Downs, intercepted at the Houston one, on a drive already in field-goal range. The third, second and 10 at the Houston 39, four 45 left, up 16 to 10: Anderson again, the ball out, Houston's at its own 46. −5 and a half expected points, nearly 13 points of win probability, and Houston went 54 yards in seven plays to lead 17 to 16. Houston scored seven points off the three.

The passing game opens on its protection, because it shaped the rest: 40 pass plays, four of them sacks, two of those sacks lost fumbles. −6.9 expected points, 20-fourth of the 28 teams so far this week by total, 211 yards after the sacks, one touchdown and one interception. At the rate the Colts passed over the first two weeks, those 40 would have been worth about −5.8, and at last season's rate, when this passing game ranked just outside the top 10, about +2 and a half. Houston had the best pass defense in the league last season, and at the rate it allowed then, 40 plays would have been worth about −7.4. The Colts passed about the way teams passed against Houston last year. The best of it came on third down. Third and nine at the Indianapolis 48, seven 37 left in the first quarter, nothing to nothing: Jones short right to Downs for 24, +3 expected points and 10 and a half points of win probability. And on third and goal at the six, 11 13 left in the second quarter, up three to nothing, Jones short right to Allen for the only Colts touchdown.

The run game got volume and not much else. 31 rush plays, tied with Miami for fifth-most of the 28 teams so far this week, for 89 yards and −1.2 expected points; 39 percent were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for, and 19 of the 31 gained three yards or fewer. At the rate of Weeks 1 and 2, when the run game ranked fifth and then sixth in the league, those 31 would have been worth about +3.8, and at last season's rate, when it ranked third, about +3. 13 rush plays for 24 yards before the break, 18 for 65 after. Jonathan Taylor's run to the Houston six early in the third quarter would have been 24 yards; a holding penalty enforced behind it left the Colts at the Houston 29, one yard from where the run began. The one that mattered was four yards: fourth and one at the Houston 48, three 24 left in the third, Taylor off right tackle, and the drive ended in a 37-yard field goal.

Field goals instead of touchdowns is the number to carry out of the offense. 10 snaps inside the Houston 20 produced one touchdown. Shrader made kicks from 39, 58, 37 53. The 58 came on fourth and 16 at the Houston 40 with one oh eight left in the first half, after a sack on third and 11, and made it 13 to seven at the break. Third down was seven of 15, 47 percent, thirteenth of the 28 teams so far this week, and four of six with one or two yards to go. Both fourth-and-ones were converted. 10 drives: a touchdown, four field goals, the three giveaways, one punt and the last snap of the half.

For anyone new to this show, here is where that sits. Last season the Colts went eight and nine with the third-best run game in the league by expected points per play, a passing game just outside the top 10 and a third-down offense seventh, and a defense that ranked nineteenth against the pass, in the top 10 against the run and 20-sixth on third down. Week 1 was a 41 to 23 loss at home to Baltimore: 509 yards allowed and a passing game 30-first of 32. Week 2 was a 33 to 30 overtime loss at Kansas City, where the offense ranked fourteenth passing and sixth running and the defense allowed 523 yards, the most of any team that week. Sunday flipped both halves of that. The defense allowed less than half the yards of either earlier game, and the run game that carried the first two weeks finished below its own rate and last season's. Three games do not settle much, and one day against an offense whose run game ranked thirtieth last season does not make a defense. It does mean the first win came from the side of the ball that lost the first two.

Indianapolis faces the Commanders in London next Sunday, October fourth.

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_Data via nflverse._