Colts, Week 3 — What Repeats: The Colts Loaded the Box

The Colts put seven or more defenders in the box on 17 of Houston's 20 designed runs on Sunday. Six or fewer on three of them, 15 percent, thirtieth of the 32 defenses this week, with the league median at 41. Last season this defense showed a light box 57 percent of the time. In the first two weeks it was 29 percent and then 52. The average box was seven and a half men. Against it, Houston's 20 designed runs gained 62 yards, 3.1 a run, under the league median of 3.9. Baltimore's designed runs had gone 5.4 a run against this defense. Kansas City's went five even. So the line in last week's notebook that said designed runs go for five a carry against the Colts broke, and it broke on the fewest light boxes the defense has shown this season.

The pass rush stayed light for a second week, and this time four was enough. Indianapolis sent five or more rushers on five of Houston's 31 dropbacks, 16 percent, 20-ninth in the league this week. Last week it was 18 percent, 30-first. Week 1 was 38 percent, seventh. Last season, 28. All three sacks of Stroud came against a four-man rush: DeForest Buckner on third and seven on Houston's third snap, Adetomiwa Adebawore on third and 15 later in the first quarter, and the two of them splitting one with 58 seconds left in the half. The charting puts none of the three on Stroud.

And the throws Houston did get off were covered. 12 of Stroud's 27 throws were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together. 44 percent, the highest share any defense forced this week, with the median at 12. Last season opponents of the Colts were contested on 12 percent of throws. In the first two weeks it was 21 percent and then 11. 18 of the 27 were catchable, 67 percent, under the 71 percent opponents managed last season. What the defense did not get was a giveable ball: zero interception-worthy throws forced, one of nine defenses that drew none this week. Tight windows, and no takeaway on offer.

On offense, the fake stopped paying. Indianapolis used play-action on 14 of 41 dropbacks, 34 percent, fourth-highest in the league this week, after 48 percent and second in the league last week. Last season, 28. Daniel Jones threw 13 play-action passes and completed eight for 52 yards, four yards a throw. His other 23 went 16 for a hundred 83, eight a throw. A week ago the fake was worth 12 of 15 for a hundred 25. The Colts kept faking at a top-five rate, and the yardage from it fell by more than half.

Jones's contested rate came down and stayed above his norm. Eight of 36 throws, 22 percent, eighth in the league. It was 29 percent in each of the first two games. Last season, 16. 25 of the 36 were catchable, 69 percent, right at the league median, under his 73 from last season. Two interception-worthy throws, six percent, tied for eighth from the reckless end with Miami, after one in each of the first two games. Both went deep left for Josh Downs. The interception, from the Houston 28 in the third quarter, the Recap covered. The other came in the first quarter: first and 10 at the Indianapolis 31, up three to nothing, incomplete. One drop, Tyler Warren in the second quarter, on 25 catchable balls.

Four sacks, and three of them came against a four-man rush; the strip-sack at the Houston 39 with four 45 left came against five. None of the four charted as Jones's fault. He left the pocket on four of 41 dropbacks, counting one scramble. That is 10 percent, one of the three lowest rates in the league this week, and under his 15 percent from last season.

Screens ticked up. Five of 41 dropbacks, 12 percent, sixth in the league, after nine percent in each of the first two weeks and five across last season. Motion sat at the median, 46 percent of charted plays, a little above last season's 43.

The run game faced its heaviest boxes of the season and had its worst day. Houston showed six or fewer on 10 of 30 designed runs, 33 percent, tied for twentieth. It was 63 percent in Week 1, 50 in Week 2, and 62 across last season. The 30 runs gained 88 yards, 2.9 a run, 20-fifth of 32 this week. 5.2, 3.7, 2.9: three weeks, each lower than the last, with the light-box share stepping down alongside it. Last season this offense averaged 4.6 yards per designed run.

The stat lines have settled, scored half-PPR. Keenan Allen led the Colts with 15.3: six catches on nine targets for 63 and the touchdown. Josh Downs, five of 11 for 77, 10.2. Tyler Warren caught nine of 10 targets for 55, 10.2. Jonathan Taylor ran 23 times for 68 and caught two for four, 8.2. Jones, 24 of 36 for 235, a touchdown and an interception, 7.9. For Houston, Stroud went 16 of 27 for a hundred 67 and a score, 11.7, and Woody Marks had five carries for 15 and the late touchdown, 8.6.

One last time on the yardstick. Everything above is set against last season's Colts, a different roster. From next week this show measures Indianapolis against its own 2026 games.

The thread, from the top. A year ago this was an eight-and-nine team built on its run game, third in the league by expected points added per play, which is what a snap was worth given the down, distance and field position, with a pass defense that ranked nineteenth. This season opened with a 41 to 23 loss to Baltimore at home and a 33 to 30 overtime loss in Kansas City, and Sunday's 19 to 17 over Houston makes it one and two. Last week's notebook had three lines that had held through two games. Jones's contested rate at 29 both games: softened to 22, still above his 16. Opponents faking at a top-five rate: broke, Houston faked on 23 percent of dropbacks, twentieth in the league. Designed runs at five a carry against this defense: broke, 3.1, on the heaviest boxes the Colts have shown. So the two lines about the defense broke on the day the defense won a game, and the box is why. What goes in now: a pass rush that has sent five or more at a bottom-four rate two weeks running and got three sacks with four; screens above last season's rate all three weeks; and a run game whose yards per designed run have dropped each week as the boxes in front of it have gotten heavier. Next Sunday, the Commanders in London.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._