Colts 30, Commanders 13 — Week 4: Three Touchdowns, All on the Ground

Third and two at the Washington five, three 29 left in the first half, Colts down six to nothing, with an extra lineman reported as eligible. Jonathan Taylor went around left end for the touchdown, and Spencer Shrader's extra point put Indianapolis ahead seven to six. It never trailed again. The Colts beat the Commanders 30 to 13, their second straight win, and they are two and two.

The run game is the lead, because it beat the boxes built to stop it. 57 percent of the Colts' 28 rush plays were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. A hundred 31 yards, three touchdowns, and +7.9 expected points added — what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, against what that situation was already worth. At the rate this run game produced over the first three weeks, those 28 runs would have been worth about +1.7. Washington showed six or fewer defenders in the box on seven of 28 designed runs, 25 percent, 20-eighth of the 30 charted offenses this week, with the median at 49. Over the first three weeks it was 47 percent. Heavier boxes, and more yards: 4.7 a designed run, after 3.8 across the first three weeks. Taylor carried 20 times for 95 and both of his touchdowns. Seth McGowan carried six for 31, including eight yards on fourth and one near midfield in the second quarter, with the extra lineman in again.

The drive that put it away was almost all runs. Up 20 to 13, the Colts took over at the Washington 48 with a minute 35 left in the third quarter. Taylor ran for four and five, Daniel Jones went up the middle for one on third and one, then Taylor went for six, for 12 on second and four, and for 12 more to the Washington 12. After a seven-yard catch by Laquon Treadwell, Jones kept it around right end on third and two from the four for the touchdown, his first rushing touchdown of the season. Nine snaps, seven of them runs, 52 yards, and 27 to 13.

The passing game opens on the fake, because it stopped working. Indianapolis used play-action on eight of 36 dropbacks, 22 percent, against 33 percent over the first three weeks. Jones completed three of the eight for one yard. Over the first three weeks the fake had been worth 22 of 32 for a hundred 92. Without it he went 16 of 26 for a hundred 42. For the game: 19 of 34, a hundred 43 yards, no touchdowns, one interception, two sacks, and −13.4 expected points on 36 pass plays, 31 percent successful. At the rate of the first three weeks, about −5.6. Washington sent five or more rushers on half of Jones's dropbacks, and only 20 of his 34 throws were catchable, 59 percent, 20-eighth of 30. The first sack was the second snap of the game: Oweh sacked Jones, the ball came out, and Washington recovered at the Colts' 21. The interception came on third and 10 at the Washington 44 in the second quarter, short right for Ashton Dulin. The best completion without a flag attached, by win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, was second and nine at the Colts' 45, up 17 to 13 in the third: short right to Tyler Warren, 13 yards, six and a half points of win probability, on the drive that ended in Shrader's 52-yard field goal.

The pass defense won its half without many extra rushers. −9.5 expected points on 39 Washington pass plays — on defense, a big negative number is the good direction. At the rate this pass defense allowed over the first three weeks, those plays would have been worth about +7 and a half. 28 percent of them were successful. Indianapolis sent five or more on six of 41 dropbacks, 15 percent, 20-eighth of 30, and still held Washington to 22 catchable throws on 37, 60 percent, after opponents managed 72 percent over the first three weeks. Two sacks, and one of them answered Washington's best drive. With Washington down 20 to 13, Dyami Brown had just caught a 48-yarder to the Colts' 36; on third and nine, Walley sacked Athan Kaliakmanis for nine yards. −2.7 expected points, eight points of win probability, and a punt. Carlies made the interception, on the first Washington series of the second half: third and 17, intended for Antonio Williams, returned to the Washington 20. It was this defense's first interception of the season. On the fourth snap after it, Taylor had his second touchdown. The one breakdown was Treylon Burks's 47-yard touchdown in the third quarter.

The run defense opens on a fourth down. Washington, up six to nothing in the second quarter, went for fourth and one at its own 46; Craig Reynolds went up the middle and Tillery and Carlies stopped him for no gain. −2.9 expected points for Washington and about six points of win probability to the Colts, who scored the go-ahead touchdown from there. For the game, 22 Washington rush plays for a hundred yards and −5.8 expected points, 27 percent of them successful. At the rate this run defense allowed over the first three weeks, those would have been worth about +3.2. 35 of the hundred yards came on one Marcus Mariota keeper on the second drive. Indianapolis kept the box heavy here too, a light box on 25 percent of designed runs against 33 percent over the first three weeks, and Washington's designed runs went 4.2 a carry, under the 4.7 opponents managed before Sunday.

The turning point came before halftime. Down six to nothing, after the fourth-down stop, the Colts faced third and 14 at the Washington 30 with five 13 left. Jones went short right to Josh Downs for five yards, and Robertson was flagged for unnecessary roughness, 12 more and a first down at the 13. +2 and a half expected points and eight and a half points of win probability, the biggest swing for Indianapolis all game. Two McGowan runs later, Taylor scored. The red zone tells the rest: 10 snaps inside the Washington 23 touchdowns, against four Washington snaps there and none. 13 drives: three touchdowns, three field goals, the fumble, the interception, four punts and the kneel-downs. On defense, 13 of 15 Washington third downs stopped, and three fourth downs.

The stat lines, scored half-PPR. Taylor, 22.2: 20 carries for 95 two touchdowns, one catch for two. Jones, 7.9. Treadwell caught five of six targets for 42, 6.7. Warren caught all five of his targets for 41, 6.6. Downs caught three of four for 16, 3.1. For Washington, Burks had 11.2 on one catch for 47 and the touchdown, and Kaliakmanis 11.

What repeats. Last week's notebook had three lines. The light pass rush: held a third week. 15 percent of dropbacks with five or more rushers, 20-eighth of 30, under the 23 percent of the first three weeks, and two sacks. Screens: held, 11 percent of dropbacks against 10 across the first three weeks. And the run game whose yards per designed run had dropped every week as the boxes got heavier: broke, in the best way. The boxes got heavier again, and the Colts went 4.7 a designed run with three touchdowns on the ground. What goes in now is the fake: a third of the Colts' dropbacks over the first three weeks, eight throws for one yard on Sunday. Watch whether the Colts go back to it, and whether it comes back to life when they do.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._