Colts 22, Steelers 34 — Week 5: Five Field Goals, One Touchdown

Indianapolis lost 34-22 in Pittsburgh, and it lost in the red zone. The Colts' 10 drives produced 5 field goals, 1 touchdown and two turnovers on downs, with no three-and-outs. They ran 10 snaps inside the Pittsburgh 20 and scored once. The Steelers ran 4 there and scored twice, and Jaylen Warren added touchdowns from 80 and 50 yards that never came near it.

The passing game moved the ball and never finished, and EPA per play shows the gap. Its 45 pass plays were worth -0.15 expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth. That is flat to the play, against -0.21 a play through Week 4, so better than its first month. Daniel Jones completed 24 of 44 for 267 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions, and 42.2% of the pass plays were successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Tyler Warren caught 7 of 9 targets for 83 yards. Josh Downs had the longest, 42 yards deep right on first and 15 in the second quarter. Laquon Treadwell's 22-yard catch on second and 11 took the ball to the Pittsburgh 2 on the drive that ended in the Colts' only touchdown, and Taylor added 3 catches for 37. Jones' targets were contested on 14 of 44 throws, 31.8%, after 21.2% through Week 4, a receiver and a defender arriving together. Two were charted interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught; neither was caught.

The run game was quiet and lost its usual edge. Its 24 rush plays were worth +0.38 EPA, +0.02 a play against +0.12 through Week 4, and gained 66 yards with 33.3% successful. Jonathan Taylor ran 15 times for 45, with a 20-yarder to the Pittsburgh 10 early in the fourth that ended in a field goal. Pittsburgh showed six or fewer in the box on 10 of 24 designed runs, 41.7%, about the 41.1% this offense saw through Week 4. Tyler Warren's 1-yard run on fourth and 1 was the only touchdown.

The pass defense gave up chunks more than completions. Pittsburgh's 32 pass plays were worth +4.3 EPA, +0.13 a play against +0.07 allowed through Week 4; on defense a positive number is the bad direction. Only 34.4% were successful, so the damage came in a few plays, and one did most of it. Up 3-0 with 8:57 left in the first, Aaron Rodgers threw short right to Warren on first and 10 at the Pittsburgh 20, and Warren went 80 yards for the touchdown, 20.2 points of win probability. Rodgers finished 22 of 31 for 235 and three touchdowns. 26 of his 31 throws were catchable, 83.9%, against 68.9% this defense allowed through Week 4. Indianapolis sent five or more on 6 of 33 dropbacks, 18.2%, against 20.4% through Week 4. DeForest Buckner's sack on third and 10 late in the third, 10 yards back to the Pittsburgh 10 with the Colts down 24-19, was worth 7.6 points of win probability, and the Colts' next drive made it 24-22.

The run defense was Muffed, and the success rate allowed leads: 60% of Pittsburgh's 20 rush plays were successful, worth +8.4 EPA, +0.42 a play against +0.06 allowed through Week 4. They gained 129 yards. Indianapolis loaded up and it did not help. It showed six or fewer in the box on 3 of 19 designed runs, 15.8%, against 31.6% through Week 4, and those 19 runs gained 123 yards. Warren ran 15 times for 101. Pittsburgh also converted two fourth-and-1 runs.

The game turned in the third quarter. Down 17-13, Jones went deep left to Tyler Warren for 29 yards to the Pittsburgh 3, +2.7 EPA. Taylor gained 1, then lost 2 on second and 2, stopped by Payton Wilson and Patrick Queen. On third and 4 from the 4, Jones' throw for Keenan Allen fell incomplete, a 6.1-point drop in win probability, and the Colts kicked to make it 17-16. On the next drive Pittsburgh converted fourth and 1 near midfield with a direct snap to Pat Freiermuth, and Warren ran 50 yards for the touchdown on the next play. The fourth quarter went the same way: down 24-19 at the Pittsburgh 10, two incompletions and a field goal. Indianapolis converted 4 of 15 third downs, and both turnovers on downs came after Pittsburgh went up 31-22: fourth and 17 at 4:17, fourth and 15 at 2:41.

The scheme dropped two of its staples. There were no screens and no run-pass options, after 15 of each through Week 4. Motion rose to 48 of 88 charted plays, 54.5%, from 47.8%. Pittsburgh sent five or more on 10 of 45 dropbacks, 22.2%, against the 34.7% this offense saw through Week 4, and charters put none of the sacks on Jones.

Last week's notebook asked whether the Colts would go back to play-action, and whether it would come back to life. Both. Jones used the fake on 12 of 45 dropbacks, 26.7%, close to the 30.6% through Week 4, and went 9 of 12 for 107 yards on it, after 25 of 40 for 193 across the first four weeks. Without it he went 15 of 32 for 160. The one to watch next is the red zone: 10 snaps, 1 touchdown and 5 field goals. And whether a run defense that went heavy and gave up 123 yards on 19 designed runs changes its fronts again.

That's your Colts, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Colts on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._