Colts 20, Titans 26 — Week 6: Up 13-0, Then a Blocked Punt

Indianapolis lost 26-20 to Tennessee at home on Sunday, a game it led 13-0 at halftime. The Colts gave the ball away three times and took it away once, a margin of -2, and a blocked punt returned for a touchdown did what the Titans' offense, 102 passing yards, could not. Indianapolis had 11 drives and scored 2 touchdowns and 2 field goals. Two of the giveaways were interceptions thrown inside the Tennessee 25.

The passing game beat its own season and still cost the game. Expected points added (EPA) measures what a play is worth given down, distance and field position, against what the situation was already worth. The Colts' 47 pass plays came in at -0.09 EPA a play, against -0.16 through Week 5, and 42.6% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Daniel Jones completed 22 of 42 for 269 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions, and was sacked six times. Keenan Allen caught 8 of 11 targets for 82. Deion Burks' 36-yard catch on third and 4 put the ball at the Tennessee 16 in the first quarter, and on second and 13 from the 19 Amani Hooker intercepted a throw for Josh Downs at the 6. Up 13-3 in the third, first and 10 at the Tennessee 24, Cordale Flott intercepted a throw for Will Mallory at the 11.

The run game gained 165 yards and lost value, and EPA per play explains the gap: -0.13 on 30 rush plays, against +0.10 through Week 5, with 40% successful. Jonathan Taylor ran 21 times for 94 yards. One carry undid most of it: the first snap of the second half, first and 10 at the Colts 28, Jeffery Simmons forced Taylor's fumble and recovered it at the 33, -5.5 EPA, and Tennessee kicked a field goal. Taylor also scored the tying touchdown from 4 yards on second and 4, down 20-13 with 5:36 left. Jones ran 3 times for 30.

The pass defense won its half of the field, and EPA per play allowed says so: Tennessee's 22 pass plays were worth -0.16 a play, against +0.09 allowed through Week 5. On defense, a negative number is good. Cam Ward completed 11 of 22 for 102 yards, a touchdown and an interception, and only 31.8% of the pass plays succeeded. The defense got off the field on 7 of Tennessee's 10 third downs. Its big play came up 10-0 with 2:00 left in the half: first and 10 at the Titans 34, Ward threw deep right for Wan'Dale Robinson, and Camryn Bynum intercepted at the Colts 39 and returned it 12 yards to the Tennessee 49. That snap was worth -4.1 EPA to the Titans, and Spencer Shrader's 47-yard field goal with 15 seconds left made it 13-0. The leak was Carnell Tate, 6 catches on 7 targets for 70 yards and the Titans' only offensive touchdown.

The run defense held too. Tennessee's 22 rush plays gained 85 yards and were worth -0.13 EPA a play, against +0.12 allowed through Week 5. They still succeeded 45.5% of the time. Tony Pollard ran 19 times for 76.

The game turned on special teams, in two snaps 10 minutes apart. Up 13-6 with 40 seconds left in the third, Simmons sacked Jones on third and 10 at the Colts 36, worth 8.2 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Chimere Dike returned the punt 58 yards to the Colts 28, and Ward found Tate for 8 yards on second and 5 to tie it 13-13. On the next possession a holding penalty left fourth and 12 at the Colts 37, Julius Chestnut blocked Rigoberto Sanchez's punt, and Oluwafemi Oladejo carried it 14 yards for a 20-13 Tennessee lead. After Taylor tied it, a 36-yard pass-interference penalty on Cam Taylor-Britt started the drive to Joey Slye's 49-yard field goal. Down 23-20, Jermaine Johnson II sacked Jones for 7 on third and 10, and the fourth-and-17 throw for Laquon Treadwell fell incomplete with 1:07 left, 12.5 points of win probability, tied for the largest swing of the game.

Last week's notebook asked about the red zone after 10 snaps there produced one touchdown in Pittsburgh. 10 snaps again, two touchdowns this time, and an interception at the 6 that took away a third chance. Third down went 7 of 15. The one to watch next: whether a line that allowed six sacks can keep Jones upright, and whether three giveaways was one bad afternoon or a habit.

That's your Colts, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Colts on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._