Colts 10, Vikings 16 — Week 7: Two Misses and a Pick

Indianapolis lost 16-10 at Minnesota on Sunday, its third straight loss, and fell to 2-5. The Colts led 7-0 after Jonathan Taylor's 38-yard touchdown and 10-6 at halftime, then did not score again. Spencer Shrader missed from 56 and 48 in the second half, and Daniel Jones's interception with 1:15 left ended the last chance. Nine drives produced a touchdown, a field goal, two missed field goals, an interception and a three-and-out.

The passing game was Muffed, and expected points added (EPA) measures by how much. EPA is what a play is worth given down, distance and field position, against what the situation was already worth. The Colts' 26 pass plays were worth -7.77 EPA, -0.299 a play against -0.145 through Week 6. Jones completed 13 of 22 for 108 yards, no touchdowns and an interception, and was sacked four times on 27 dropbacks, after 15 on 239 through Week 6. His longest completion went 13 yards. The short game still moved the chains on third down: 13 yards to Keenan Allen on third and 11, 12 to Laquon Treadwell on third and 11, 11 to Deion Burks on third and 7. Two sacks in two snaps in the third quarter, for 10 and 13, left third and 33 at the Colts 9.

The run game came close to its standard, and success rate leads it: 45.5% of 33 rush plays were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for, for 154 yards and +1.15 EPA. That was +0.035 a play against +0.056 through Week 6. The big one came on the first drive: first and 10 at the Minnesota 38, Taylor ran 38 yards for the touchdown, +3.53 EPA. His other 17 carries gained 57, and he finished with 95 yards on 18. Seth McGowan ran 11 times for 46. Jones converted a fourth and 1 and two third-and-1s on his own runs.

The pass defense beat its own standard, and EPA per play allowed opens it: Minnesota's 27 pass plays were worth -0.003 a play, against +0.057 allowed through Week 6; on defense, a negative number is good. Kyler Murray completed 14 of 24 for 150 yards and a touchdown, and 40.7% of the pass plays succeeded. Adetomiwa Adebawore had two sacks and Cam Taylor-Britt one. The leaks were second-down throws: 21 yards to Justin Jefferson from the Minnesota 4, 22 to T.J. Hockenson in the fourth quarter, and 20 to Jauan Jennings on the drive to the winning field goal.

The run defense Smashed, and EPA per play shows the swing: Minnesota's 27 rush plays were worth -0.159 a play, against +0.081 allowed through Week 6, and only 33.3% succeeded. Strip out Murray's two scrambles and the 25 designed runs gained 98 yards for -6.87 EPA. The stand that set the tone came on the opening drive, after Myles Price's 46-yard kickoff return put Minnesota at the Colts 47. On third and 1 at the 38, Jaylahn Tuimoloau stopped Aaron Jones for no gain. On fourth and 1, Akeem Davis-Gaither and Laiatu Latu dropped Jones for a 1-yard loss: -3.92 EPA and 8.7 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, against the Vikings. Jones finished with 26 yards on 8 carries.

The game turned in the fourth quarter, and it started with a scramble. Up 10-6, on third and 8 at the Colts 40, Murray ran right for 35 yards to the 5, 18.9 points of win probability to Minnesota, and Hockenson scored on the next snap. Grover Stewart blocked Will Reichard's 59-yard try to give the Colts the ball at their own 49, down 13-10 with 8:32 left. Taylor converted a third and 3 with a 6-yard run, but on third and 2 at the Minnesota 30, McGowan was stopped for no gain, and Shrader's 48-yarder went wide right: -17.6 points of win probability. Down 16-10 with 1:34 left, Josh Downs caught a 13-yarder to the Colts 44. On the next snap Jones threw short right for Will Mallory, and Harrison Smith intercepted at the Minnesota 44, -4.4 EPA and 17.1 points of win probability.

Last week's notebook asked whether Jones's interception-worthy throws would fall back toward his norm, and whether the line could keep him upright. The throws wait for the charting; he threw 1 interception, after 2 against Tennessee. The line did not hold up: four sacks on 27 dropbacks, after six on 50 against the Titans. The one to watch next: whether a passing game whose longest completion went 13 yards can find a gain downfield, and whether Shrader, 1 of 3 on field goals here, gets back on target.

That's your Colts, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Colts on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._