Colts 7, Jaguars 42 — Week 8: Three Giveaways in Jacksonville

Indianapolis lost 42-7 at Jacksonville on Sunday, its fourth straight loss, and fell to 2-6. The 7 points were its fewest this season and the 42 allowed its most. It trailed 28-0 at the half. The offense finished with one touchdown, three turnovers, two turnovers on downs and six punts, and the turnover margin was -2.

The passing game was Muffed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures how badly: 34 pass plays worth -21.3, -0.63 a play against -0.16 through Week 7, its worst game this season. Only 35.3% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Daniel Jones completed 19 of 28 for 144 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions, and was sacked three times; Anthony Richardson played the fourth quarter after the second interception. Keenan Allen caught all 7 of his targets for 67 yards. Tyler Warren was thrown 10 passes, caught 4 for 18 yards, and both interceptions were aimed at him. The first was the costliest play of the game: down 21-0 with 25 seconds left in the half, first and 10 at the Jacksonville 17 after a timeout, Jones threw short left for Warren and Rayuan Lane III intercepted at the 8 and returned it 92 yards, -11.0 EPA. Josh Downs caught the only touchdown, 6 yards on third and 6, at 35-0.

The run game moved the chains more often than its EPA suggests, and success rate shows the split: 45.8% of 24 rush plays succeeded, for 111 yards, but they were worth -6.9 EPA, -0.29 a play against +0.05 through Week 7. Most of that was one fumble. Jonathan Taylor ran 8 times for 23 yards, his fewest carries and yards this season, after 19 on the opening snap. At first and goal from the 3, down 35-0, he lost 1 and then 2. Seth McGowan ran 5 times for 29, 16 of them setting up that goal-to-go, and DJ Giddens 6 for 43 in the fourth.

The pass defense allowed few completions, and long ones: Trevor Lawrence's 10 completions went for 210 yards, 21.0 a catch. The Jaguars' 20 pass plays were worth +4.4 EPA, +0.22 a play against +0.05 allowed through Week 7; on defense a positive number is bad. Brenton Strange's 46-yarder on second and 5 started a 98-yard opening drive, and Nate Boerkircher's 31-yard touchdown came four snaps after the fumble. The rush got there three times. CJ Allen sacked Lawrence for 10, Laiatu Latu for 15 on third and 6 to force a punt from the Jacksonville 11, and Jaylahn Tuimoloau's sack with 1:03 left in the half forced a fumble that Caden Curry recovered and returned to the Jacksonville 31.

The run defense gave up its yards in two pieces, and rushing yards allowed show it: 183 on 33 rush plays, worth +6.1 EPA, +0.19 a play against +0.04 allowed through Week 7; positive is bad here too. Bhayshul Tuten's 39-yard touchdown off right tackle and Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s 28-yarder on third and 1 made up 67 of the yards; the other 31 rush plays averaged 3.7. Tuten finished with 104 on 16 carries.

The game turned with 9:11 left in the second quarter. Down 7-0, Allen's 14-yard catch on third and 7 had the Colts at first and 10 at the Jacksonville 41, their deepest snap of the game to that point, when Taylor fumbled an aborted snap and Bryan Thomas Jr. recovered at midfield: -5.8 EPA and 10.0 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, the largest swing of the game. Jacksonville scored four snaps later. Curry's recovery gave the offense a last chance at the Jacksonville 31 before the half; two Jones completions reached the 17, and the next throw went back 92 yards. The offense converted 3 of 11 third downs and was stopped on fourth and 3 by a split sack in the third.

Last week's notebook asked whether a passing game whose longest completion went 13 yards could find a gain downfield, and whether Spencer Shrader, 1 of 3 on field goals at Minnesota, would get back on target. The longest completion went 18 yards, twice, to Laquon Treadwell on third and 10 and to Allen, both after it was 35-0. Shrader attempted no field goal and made his one extra point. The one to watch next: whether Jones and Warren find each other again, after -19.7 EPA on Warren's 10 targets here against +8.2 on his 36 through Week 7.

That's your Colts, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Colts on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._