Colts 23, Cowboys 27 — Week 9: The Lead Lasted 31 Seconds

Indianapolis lost 27-23 at home to Dallas on Sunday, its fifth straight loss, and fell to 2-7. Spencer Shrader kicked three field goals, from 47, 59 and 50 yards, and the last put the Colts ahead 23-20 with 1:41 left. Dallas went 65 yards and scored 31 seconds later. 14 drives produced two touchdowns, three field goals, two giveaways and five three-and-outs.

The passing game spent the first half going backward, and the split in expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position, shows where: 15 first-half pass plays worth -8.7, then 21 after halftime worth +0.1. For the game it was -0.24 a play against -0.22 through Week 8, with 36.1% of plays successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Daniel Jones completed 20 of 34 for 180 yards, a touchdown and an interception and was sacked twice. Down 20-10 with 1:27 left in the third, second and 5 at his own 45, he threw short left to Ashton Dulin, who went 55 yards for the touchdown, +4.6 EPA. Keenan Allen caught 4 of 8 targets for 26 yards.

The run game moved the chains and then gave the ball away, and success rate is the generous read: 13 of 23 rush plays, 56.5%, succeeded, for 105 yards. EPA had them at -3.7, -0.16 a play against +0.02 through Week 8, and one snap did it; the other 22 came to +1.8. Jonathan Taylor ran 13 times for 46 yards and lost a fumble at the Dallas 20 in the fourth quarter. Seth McGowan ran 6 times for 45, scored the opening touchdown from the 2 on third and 2, and broke a 36-yarder to the Dallas 47 on the drive that ended in Shrader's tying 59-yarder.

The pass defense gave up its yards in four throws, and EPA allowed per play is the cost: Dallas's 37 pass plays were worth +6.0, +0.16 a play against +0.06 allowed through Week 8. On defense a positive number is bad. Only 37.8% of those plays succeeded, but completions of 44, 48, 46 and 31 yards made up 169 of Dak Prescott's 335 passing yards. CeeDee Lamb caught 10 of 16 targets for 195 and a 44-yard touchdown with 28 seconds left in the half. Laiatu Latu, Caden Curry and Jaylahn Tuimoloau had a sack each. Latu's came with the Colts down 3-0, third and 8 at the Dallas 21: he forced Prescott's fumble and Curry recovered and returned it to the 19, -4.3 EPA for Dallas, and McGowan scored six snaps later. Austin Ajiake forced the other giveaway, stripping Lamb at the end of a 48-yard catch early in the fourth.

The run defense gave up more than its usual, and EPA per play allowed measures it: Dallas's 33 rush plays were worth +3.8, +0.11 a play against +0.07 allowed through Week 8; positive is bad here too. 54.5% of them succeeded, for 180 yards. Tyler Goodson ran 12 times for 77 and Javonte Williams 20 times for 101 and the winning 1-yard touchdown. Holding penalties took back two of Williams's first-quarter runs, for 9 and 12 yards.

The game turned with 9:55 left. Down 20-17, the Colts had reached the Dallas 18 on two Dallas penalties, DaRon Bland's 40-yard pass interference and Dee Winters's unnecessary roughness. On first and 10, Taylor ran up the middle, Quinnen Williams stripped him for a 2-yard loss, and Shemar James recovered at the 19: -5.5 EPA and 27.2 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Shrader's 59-yarder still tied it and his 50-yarder put the Colts ahead, but on the first snap after the kickoff Prescott found Ryan Flournoy deep right for 46 yards to the Indianapolis 19, 28.7 points of win probability, and Williams scored four snaps later. Jones's last drive opened with an intentional-grounding penalty and ended on Caleb Downs's interception on third and 22.

Last week's episode asked whether Jones and Tyler Warren would find each other again, after -19.7 EPA on Warren's 10 targets at Jacksonville. They did, modestly: 4 catches on 7 targets for 44 yards and +0.05 EPA, including a 10-yarder on second and 4 with 2:49 left that moved the go-ahead drive into Dallas territory. The one to watch next: whether the passing game can do anything before halftime, after 15 first-half pass plays worth -8.7 here.

That's your Colts, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Colts on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._