Rams 34, Bills 37 — Week 5: 383 Passing Yards, Lost in Overtime

The Rams lost 37-34 to Buffalo in overtime at home, and the defense lost it after the offense did nearly everything. Los Angeles scored five touchdowns on 10 drives, turned it over zero times and took it away twice, a margin of +2. Kyren Williams's 1-yard run with 8 seconds left tied it 34-34. In overtime Aaron Donald recovered a fumble at the Los Angeles 20, the Rams reached the Buffalo 35, and Greg Rousseau blocked Harrison Mevis's 48-yard try. Tyler Bass kicked a 45-yarder with 2:00 left in overtime. Mevis had also missed from 50 in the first quarter. The Rams are 2-3.

The passing game Smashed its own season. Expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, puts its 55 pass plays at +19.4, +0.35 a play, against +0.04 through Week 4. Of those, 54.5% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Matthew Stafford completed 40 of 54 for 383 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Puka Nacua caught 17 of 24 targets for 138 and a touchdown; Davante Adams caught 5 for 51 and two scores. The throw that restarted the night came early in the third, down 13-7: fourth and 6 at the Buffalo 40, Stafford went short right to Tyler Higbee for 10 yards to the 30, +3.8 EPA and 11.7 points of win probability, and Blake Corum finished that drive from the 1 for a 14-13 lead. Higbee added catches of 28 and 30 yards deep left, and Adams's 5-yard touchdown on third and 5 tied it 27-27 with 7:18 left.

The charting says Stafford's ball was far cleaner than in his first four weeks. 41 of his 54 throws were catchable, 75.9%, against 67.3% through Week 4. One was interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, 1.9%, after 10 in 159, 6.3%. Six were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, 11.1% against 19.5%, and his receivers dropped one after 9. Buffalo sent five or more rushers on 21 of 55 dropbacks, 38.2%, against the 25.4% the Rams saw through Week 4, and the charters put no sack on Stafford himself. The sack that cost points came on the two-point try after Nacua's 2-yard touchdown, which left it 20-19.

The run game stayed at its own level, and its success rate shows the ceiling: 34.8% of 23 rush plays were successful, worth -0.3 EPA, -0.01 a play, against a season rate that rounds to zero. They gained 77 yards, with two touchdowns, both from the 1. Williams ran 16 times for 49 and Corum 5 times for 19. Buffalo loaded the box, six or fewer on only 5 of 23 designed runs, 21.7%, 29th of the 30 charted offenses this week against a league median of 48.9%, and below the 36.8% the Rams saw through Week 4. Those designed runs gained 77 yards, after 480 on 95 through Week 4.

The pass defense was Muffed by EPA allowed. Buffalo's 20 pass plays were worth +7.3, +0.37 a play, against -0.18 allowed through Week 4; on defense, positive is the bad direction, and this defense had been well below zero. Half of them succeeded, for 210 yards. Ty Johnson caught throws of 40 and 26 yards that set up two touchdowns, and Khalil Shakir's 57-yarder opened overtime. The charting has the defense giving up easier balls: 13 of Josh Allen's 19 throws were catchable, 68.4%, against 57.5% for opponents through Week 4. It also had its chances. Two of Allen's throws were interception-worthy, 10.5%, against 6.3%, and Jaylen Watson caught one, deep right for Keon Coleman with 37 seconds left in the half. The Rams sent five or more on 11 of 28 dropbacks, 39.3%, eighth-highest of the 30 charted defenses and above their 32.8%, and Josaiah Stewart's 8-yard sack on third and 7 on the opening drive held Buffalo to a field goal. Allen was out of the pocket on 14 of 28 dropbacks.

The run defense was Muffed, and the success rate allowed tells it: Buffalo succeeded on 56.8% of 37 rush plays, worth +8.5 EPA, +0.23 a play, against -0.07 allowed through Week 4, for 234 yards and three touchdowns. Allen ran 10 times for 121 and James Cook 25 times for 111 and two scores. The front was not light by Buffalo's standard, six or fewer in the box on 15 of 29 designed runs, 51.7%, against 48% through Week 4, and those runs gained 127. The quarterback was the problem. Tied 27-27 with 2:00 left, second and 17 at the Los Angeles 26, Allen scrambled for 21 yards to the 5, and Cook scored two snaps later. Nate Landman had the best of the night: a 5-yard loss on Cook at the 2 in the third, and the overtime strip that Donald recovered, -5.8 EPA to Buffalo.

The game turned on the overtime drive that came up short. After Donald's recovery the Rams started at their own 20. Stafford hit Davis Allen deep middle for 21, 14.0 points of win probability, and Nacua deep right for 21 to the Buffalo 35, 21.5 points, the largest swing in the Rams' favor all night. Then an incompletion, a 5-yard catch by Nacua, and Williams stopped for no gain on third and 5 at the 30. Rousseau blocked the 48-yarder, and Buffalo went the other way for the winning kick. The Rams converted 7 of 14 third downs and scored 5 touchdowns on 16 red-zone snaps. Two of the drives that did not score ended on Mevis's missed kicks.

The scheme leaned on the fake and the motion. Play-action rose to 19 of 55 dropbacks, 34.5%, fourth-highest of the 30 charted offenses, from 22% through Week 4, and it paid: Stafford went 13 of 18 for 171 off it, after 17 of 34 for 205 across the first four weeks, and 27 of 36 for 212 on the rest. Motion rose to 58.4% of charted plays, fifth-highest, from 50.7%. The Rams ran 3 run-pass options after none through Week 4.

Last week's notebook asked which front the next defense would pick. Buffalo picked the crowded one, and the run game went nowhere against it, 77 yards on 23 designed runs. The offense answered by throwing, and it worked. The one to watch next: whether Stafford keeps the ball this clean, one interception-worthy throw in 54 after 10 in his first four weeks, and whether a run defense that had been allowing -0.07 a play can stop a quarterback who runs.

That's your Rams, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Rams on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._