Rams 16, Cardinals 18 — Week 6: Held to Field Goals, Lost on One

The Rams lost 18-16 to Arizona at home, beaten by six field goals and nothing else. The Cardinals ran 15 snaps inside the Los Angeles 20 and scored on none of them; Chad Ryland kicked all six, the last from 43 yards with 3 seconds left. The Rams had led 16-15 since Matthew Stafford's 6-yard touchdown to Colby Parkinson with 52 seconds to go. Each side lost one turnover and forced one.

The passing game finished far below its own standard. Expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, put its 36 pass plays at -5.7, -0.16 a play against +0.12 through Week 5. Of those, 47.2% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for, for 222 yards and two touchdowns. The sacks did the damage: Josh Sweat for 9 on third and 12 on the opening drive, Budda Baker for 8 in the second quarter, an 11-yard loss in the fourth, and a sack on the two-point try after Blake Corum's 15-yard touchdown catch on second and 9, which left it 9-6. Puka Nacua's 43- and 16-yard catches built the last drive.

The run game succeeded half the time and still lost value. Half of its 20 rush plays were successful, yet they came to -2.2 EPA, -0.11 a play against a break-even rate through Week 5, for 92 yards. One snap carries most of that. Down 12-9 with 2:44 left in the third, fourth and 1 at the Arizona 27, Davis Allen went up the middle and Jack Gibbens and Mack Wilson stopped him for no gain: -4.0 EPA and 13.2 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Kyren Williams ran 14 yards to the Arizona 46 in the fourth and converted third and 2 on the final drive.

The pass defense bent more than usual, and the success rate allowed shows it: 54.3% of Arizona's 35 pass plays succeeded, worth +2.0 EPA, +0.06 a play against -0.11 allowed through Week 5; on defense, positive is the bad direction. They gained 218 yards and no touchdowns. Quentin Lake intercepted Jacoby Brissett on third and 5 on Arizona's first possession, though the Rams turned it into only Blake Grupe's 44-yard field goal. Trey McBride's 26-yard catch set up the first Arizona kick, and Jaylen Watson stopped him for a 2-yard loss on third and 7 at the Los Angeles 7 in the fourth.

The run defense was the better half, and EPA per play measures it: Arizona's 35 rush plays were worth -3.4 EPA, -0.10 a play against +0.01 allowed through Week 5; here a negative number is good. Only 42.9% succeeded, for 120 yards. The stand before halftime is the one to retell. Down 9-6 with 1:42 left, Arizona had first and goal at the 8 after Kendrick Bourne's third-down catch. Nate Landman and Josaiah Stewart stopped Bam Knight for no gain, Tyler Allgeier got 5, and on third and 3 Brissett's throw for Bourne fell incomplete. Ryland tied it from 22. Aaron Donald dropped Allgeier for 5 yards in the first, and Josh Wallace took Knight down for 3 at the 4 in the fourth. The defense stopped 10 of 15 third downs.

The game turned twice in the fourth, the second time for good. Down 15-9 at the Arizona 19 with 8:49 left, Stafford was sacked for 11 and recovered his own fumble; on the next snap Tyler Higbee caught a short throw for 8 to the 22, Cody Simon forced a fumble, and Denzel Burke recovered. Each snap cost 11.7 points of win probability. Two drives later came the answer: Nacua twice, Williams to the 6, and Parkinson's touchdown, ruled short at the 1 and reversed on review, worth 15.5 points. With 47 seconds left, Brissett hit Jalen Brooks for 21 yards to the Los Angeles 44, and Wallace's unnecessary roughness added 15. That snap moved 24.1 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game, and Ryland won it from 43. The Rams converted 4 of 10 third downs, scored 2 touchdowns on 9 red-zone snaps, and turned it over on downs twice.

Last week's notebook asked whether Stafford would keep the ball as clean, and whether the run defense could get back below zero. He threw no interception; the giveaway was Higbee's fumble. The run defense answered: -0.10 a play, back under zero. The one to watch next: whether a passing game that fell from +0.12 a play to -0.16 behind three sacks gets back to its standard, and whether a defense that allowed no touchdowns on 15 red-zone snaps keeps getting that help from its offense.

That's your Rams, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Rams on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._