Patriots 10, Seahawks 13 — Week 1: Three Fourth-Quarter Picks

New England had third and five at the Seattle 16-yard line with 26 seconds left, down 13 to 10. It had taken 15 plays and five and a half minutes to get there from its own 27, and it had converted a fourth and two and a fourth and nine on the way. Drake Maye threw deep right for Mack Hollins in the end zone, and Josh Jobe intercepted it. Touchback. That was the third interception of the fourth quarter, and the Patriots lost 13 to 10 at Lumen Field on Wednesday night, in a game they had led from the second quarter until Seattle's extra point with 11 28 left in the fourth.

The fourth quarter is the story, so take it in order. New England started it with the ball at the Seattle 46, up 10 to three, and one play later had second and nine at the 45. Maye went deep left for Romeo Doubs and Nehemiah Pritchett intercepted it at the Seattle three and returned it 30 yards. Seattle scored on the fifth play of the drive that followed, a fourth-and-one throw from Drew Lock to Jaxon Smith-Njigba that went 45 yards. Tied. New England's next drive started at its own 14 and reached third and 14 at the 22; Maye threw deep middle for DeMario Douglas and Julian Love intercepted it at the New England 47. Seattle kicked a field goal off that. And then the last drive, the longest New England had all night, which worked until its final snap. Across the quarter the offense ran 22 plays for −7.1 expected points added. Expected points added is what each snap was worth given down, distance and field position, and a negative number is points the offense gave back by running the play. Through the first three quarters, the same offense had run 45 plays for roughly zero.

The passing game as a whole came out at −4.6 expected points on 36 pass plays, a hundred 78 yards, one touchdown, three interceptions. That is a number that requires context, because a year ago this was the best passing offense in the league — first in expected points per pass play, and first in expected points per play overall. On Wednesday it was three interceptions, three sacks, and a success rate of 47 percent, meaning fewer than half its pass plays gained what the situation asked for. The three sacks all came in the fourth quarter: Leonard Williams on the first snap after a holding penalty made it first and 20, Drake Thomas on the sideline with two 16 left, and Derick Hall for seven yards with 38 seconds left — the play that turned first and 10 at the 21 into the third and five where the game ended.

One more split belongs here, and it comes with a warning label. A.J. Brown, the offseason addition to this passing game, was targeted five times and left the game injured on the fifth — third and four, 13 30 left in the third quarter, an incompletion, and he did not return. Before that play he had been Maye's third-down answer: a five-yard catch on third and four, a 14-yard catch on third and three, and a 34-yard pass interference call drawn on third and two. With him on the field, New England's 15 pass plays were worth +3.5 expected points and no interceptions. After he left, 21 pass plays were worth −8.1, with all three interceptions. That is when the passing game changed. Whether it is why, one game cannot say — the fourth quarter also brought the score, the clock and a defense that finished second in the league last year, and the throws that were intercepted were aimed at Doubs, Douglas and Hollins.

The run game was quiet and not the problem. 31 carries, a hundred and nine yards, −2.7 expected points, and a success rate of 35 percent. Rhamondre Stevenson's 12-yard run to the Seattle 48 with three 42 left was New England's longest carry by a running back all night, and it came right after Maye's fourth-and-two scramble kept the drive alive. The bigger issue was where the drives started. Three New England possessions began inside its own 10-yard line — the eight, the eight and the six — and none of the nine drives began past the 32.

The one touchdown was earned the long way. Second quarter, a 10-play drive from the New England 23, finished by Maye to Eli Raridon from two yards out, first and goal, with nine 14 left in the half. Andy Borregales added a 50-yard field goal with 11 53 left in the third quarter for 10 to nothing. New England took two snaps inside the Seattle 20 all night and scored a touchdown on one of them; the other was its final snap.

The defense did its job for most of the night and deserves its own paragraph. Seattle lost Sam Darnold to injury on his third dropback — sacked by Dre'Mont Jones for a five-yard loss — and Drew Lock played the rest of the game. Through three quarters the Seattle offense ran 35 plays for −4.6 expected points and scored three points. Seattle converted two of 11 third downs. It took six snaps inside the New England 20 and scored no touchdowns on them — a seven-yard touchdown to Cooper Kupp in the third quarter came back on an illegal shift — including a sequence with six 42 left, tied at 10, where Lock scrambled to the New England three and the Seahawks came away with a field goal after a delay of game penalty and two incompletions. The one play the defense will see again is the fourth and one: 11 38 left, up seven, Seattle at the New England 45, a short throw left to Smith-Njigba, 45 yards, touchdown. 6.1 expected points and 34 points of win probability on one snap. Seattle's passing game finished at +4.4 expected points on 26 pass plays, 200 yards; its run game at −1.3 on 21 carries. New England held Seattle to 98 rushing yards and no rushing touchdowns.

Now the part where a Week 1 episode has to be honest about what it is. There is no season yet, so the comparison is last year, with a different roster and a different question. Last year New England went 14 three and won the AFC East, with the best offense in the league by expected points per play and a defense that finished eleventh. On Wednesday the defense held Seattle to 13 points and the offense played like something else for one quarter — and the quarter it chose was the fourth. Three interceptions in 15 minutes is not a pattern; it is one bad quarter from a quarterback whose offense was first in the league a year ago. What is worth holding onto is the shape: New England was on the field for 22 fourth-quarter snaps, went for it twice on fourth down and converted both, and reached the 16 with the game on the line. The drive worked. The last throw did not.

New England hosts Pittsburgh a week from Sunday. Watch the fourth quarter, and watch where the drives start.

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_Data via nflverse._