Patriots, Week 1 — What Repeats: Maye Put Three Up for Grabs

Drake Maye threw 33 passes in Seattle on Wednesday night and three of them were charted interception-worthy — balls a defender should have caught. Seattle intercepted three passes. Three of 33 is nine percent, tied for the second-highest interception-worthy rate of any offense in the league this week, with the Falcons and Browns, behind only the Rams; the league median was 3.4. Across all of last season Maye put 14 interception-worthy balls in the air on 493 throws, under three percent. The Recap had the three plays and the quarter they came in. The charting says three of his throws were marked as a defender's ball to take, and Seattle came away with three; the charting does not say they were the same three.

Six of his 33 throws were contested — a receiver and a defender arriving together — which is 18 percent, against his 13 percent across last season. His accuracy was near his own level: 24 of 33 throws catchable, 73 percent, tied for thirteenth in the league this week with the Browns and a bit above the median of 71, against 76 percent for him last year. His receivers dropped one of the 24 catchable balls. Two throwaways. He left the pocket on eight of his 36 dropbacks, and of the three sacks the Recap counted, not one was charted as his fault. Seven of his throws came off play-action and six were caught for 62 yards; the other 26 throws produced 17 completions and a hundred and 16. Read together: none of the sacks was charted on him, six of his seven play-action throws were caught, and three times he threw a ball a defender should take, on a night with more contested throws than his usual 13 percent.

New England sent five or more rushers on 12 of Seattle's 27 dropbacks, 44 percent — the fifth-highest share of any defense in the league this week, against a median of 27, and against 28 percent for this defense across all of last season. 4.6 rushers per dropback on average. Seattle ran play-action on 11 of its 27 dropbacks, 41 percent, the second-highest rate any offense ran this week, when opponents ran it against New England 25 percent of the time last year. Drew Lock threw eight passes off play-action and completed all eight for a hundred and 10 yards. His other 14 throws produced eight completions and 77. Against five or more rushers on nearly half its dropbacks, Seattle's 24 throws were catchable 71 percent of the time, with one interception-worthy ball that New England did not catch, and zero drops.

One more front-of-the-defense number, and it sits next to the play-action. New England showed Seattle a light box — six or fewer defenders — on 19 of 20 designed runs. 95 percent, against 42 percent across last season. Seattle ran 20 designed runs with a charted box for 84 yards, into fronts that were light on 19 of them. On the other side, Seattle showed New England a light box on 10 of 25 designed runs, 40 percent, tied for nineteenth in the league this week with the Titans and under the median of 47; New England ran those 25 for 65 yards. Last season this offense saw a light box 35 percent of the time, so the boxes were a little softer than it is used to and the yards did not follow.

Play-action on nine of 42 dropbacks, 21 percent, tied for sixteenth in the league with the Texans and exactly the median, down a little from 24 last season. Screens did: six of 42 dropbacks, 14 percent, against four percent last season, 26 in 614 dropbacks. Motion on 37 of 84 charted plays, 44 percent, twentieth in the league, up from 42. No no-huddle at all. Seattle sent five or more rushers at New England on 11 of 42 dropbacks, 26 percent, under the 31 percent this offense faced last year.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Rhamondre Stevenson led the team with 12 — 18 carries for 51, five catches on six targets for 44. Maye, 9.8: 23 of 33 for a hundred 78, one touchdown, three interceptions, +7 carries for 47. Mack Hollins four of five targets for 51. Eli Raridon one catch on one target, two yards, the touchdown. DeMario Douglas five of seven for 20, Hunter Henry three of three for 26, A.J. Brown three of four for 26 before he left in the third quarter, and Romeo Doubs no catches on three targets. For Seattle, Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught eight of 11 targets for a hundred 22 and the touchdown, 22.2; Lock went 16 of 22 for a hundred 87, one touchdown, no interceptions; Jadarian Price ran 10 times for 52.

Some plain talk about the name of this show. There is no within-season baseline after one game, and we are not going to invent one. Every comparison in this episode is to last season — a different roster, a year older, in some places a different job. That comparison tells you what was unusual on Wednesday, which is worth knowing. It does not tell you what is true about this team now. The version of the show that measures New England against its own recent weeks starts working around Week 4. Until then we will name the comparison every time.

The thread starts here, and for this team it starts high. The Recap said what last year was: 14 three, the division, the best offense in the league by expected points per play, and a defense that finished eleventh. Three things go in the notebook from the charting. Maye's interception-worthy rate was under three percent across a full season and nine on Wednesday, into more contested throws than he usually makes; one night does not move a season figure, and it is the first thing to check. The defense sent five or more rushers on 44 percent of dropbacks after 28 percent last year, and Lock went eight of eight on play-action — whether either repeats is the second. And the screens tripled.

That's your Patriots — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Patriots show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._