Patriots 6, Jaguars 35 — Week 3: Four Trips, Six Points

First and 10 at the Jacksonville 35, three 58 left in the first quarter, nothing to nothing. New England had just converted a third and two, and by the win probability model — the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment — the Patriots were at 60 percent, the highest they would be all afternoon. Drake Maye was sacked at the Jacksonville 42, the ball came out, and DaVon Hamilton recovered at the 38. 17 points of win probability on one snap, the biggest swing of the game, and by expected points added — what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth — −5.8. Jacksonville went 62 yards in 10 plays for the game's first touchdown. The Patriots lost 35 to six in Jacksonville, never led, and never scored a touchdown.

That snap was a pass play, and the passing game is the story. Last season New England had the best passing offense in the league by expected points per play. On Sunday its 34 pass plays — a count that includes three sacks — were worth −13.9 expected points, last of the 28 teams that have played so far this week, by the total and by the rate per play. At the rate New England passed last season, those same 34 plays would have been worth about +10. At its rate over the first two weeks, about −5 and a half. Yardage was not the problem: 234 net passing yards, thirteenth of the 28 so far this week, with five completions of 20 yards or more, the longest 38 yards to DeMario Douglas on second and nine from the New England 29. The problem was that three pass plays turned the ball over — the sack-fumble and two interceptions. The costliest by expected points came late in the third quarter: first and 10 at the New England 27, one oh three left, down 21 to three, Maye short left for Kyle Williams, and Jarrian Jones picked it off at the 36 and returned it 31 yards before Maye pushed him out at the five. −7.1 expected points, the most negative snap of the game. Jacksonville scored on the next play.

Then the scoring chances. Four New England drives reached the Jacksonville 20, and they produced six points; 10 snaps at or inside the 20, no touchdowns. The first started at the Jacksonville 21 after Marcus Jones intercepted Trevor Lawrence. Maye's 21-yard touchdown scramble on the next snap came back for offensive holding, the completion after it came back for offensive pass interference, and from first and 30 the Patriots settled for a 35-yard Andy Borregales field goal. The second trip hurt most. From the New England 28 with four 17 left in the half, down 14 to three, the 38-yarder to Douglas, two Jacksonville penalties, three short runs and an eight-yard Maye scramble moved the ball to the five. Maye ran for one, Rhamondre Stevenson ran for two, and on third and two from the Jacksonville two with one oh two left, Maye threw short right for Efton Chism and Travis Hunter intercepted it in the end zone. Seven points of win probability, −4 and a half expected points. The third trip ended in a missed field goal, and the fourth in a 40-yarder after a taunting penalty moved the ball back 15 yards from the seven.

The run game was neither the problem nor the answer. 26 rush plays, 83 yards, about −1 expected point — fourteenth of the 28 teams so far this week, and close to where either baseline put it: about minus half a point at the rate of the first two weeks, about zero at last season's. No run gained 10 yards; 15 of the 26 gained three or fewer.

The defense came in off a Week 2 in which it held Pittsburgh to three points and stopped 10 of 12 third downs, second in the league that week. On Sunday it stopped four of 12, last of the 28 teams to play so far this week. On one third-quarter drive Jacksonville converted third downs needing one, nine, 11 17 yards, and the last was a touchdown. The pass defense's number follows: 29 Jacksonville pass plays worth +7.6 expected points — on defense a positive number is the bad direction — with three touchdown passes. At the rate this defense allowed over the first two weeks, those 29 would have been worth about −7; at last season's rate, when it ranked eleventh, about −1.6. The yardage says something different: 178 net passing yards allowed, seventh-fewest so far this week, and no completion longer than 23. Three short touchdown throws did the damage, from 12, 10 17 yards.

The run defense was further from its own form. 30 Jacksonville rush plays were worth +6.1 expected points, 20-seventh of the 28 teams so far this week; only Green Bay's defense against Atlanta on Thursday allowed more. At the rate of Weeks 1 and 2 those 30 would have been worth about −2; at last season's rate, about −1. 137 yards and two short touchdowns, from five yards and from one. The run that set up the second: third and four at the New England 16, eight 56 left in the game, Lawrence around left end for 15 yards to the one.

The game's shape turned on the opening drive of the second half. Down 14 to three, New England started at its own 38, turned a fourth and one at its own 47 into 18 yards when a three-yard Stevenson run drew an unnecessary roughness penalty, and reached the Jacksonville 20. Third and six fell incomplete, and Borregales missed from 38, wide right: −4 expected points. Jacksonville took over at its own 28, held the ball for 15 plays and more than eight and a half minutes, and scored on that third and 17 with one 13 left in the quarter. Then the Jones interception on New England's next snap, then a five-yard touchdown run. 14 to three became 28 to three in 19 seconds of game clock, touchdown snap to touchdown snap.

For anyone new to this show, here is where that sits. Last season New England went 14 three with the best passing offense in the league by expected points per play, a third-down offense sixth, a run game fourteenth, a pass defense eleventh and a run defense fifteenth. Week 1 was a 13 to 10 loss on a Wednesday night in Seattle, with the passing game 20-second of 32 three turnovers. Week 2 was a 20 to three home win over Pittsburgh built on the defense: third in the league against the pass, second on third down. Sunday ran the other way on both. The passing game ranked 20-second of 32 in Week 1, 20-seventh of 32 in Week 2 and last of the 28 teams so far this week, its rate per play lower each week than the week before, and below last season's rate all three times. That is eight turnovers in three games. And the defense that carried Week 2 allowed more expected points on Sunday than in either of the first two games. Three games do not settle a season, and last season's passing game was built over 17. But three times in three this one has not looked like it, and Sunday was the furthest from it yet.

New England is at Buffalo next Sunday, October fourth.

That's your Patriots — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Patriots show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

And if you play fantasy, there's a Muffed show built around your exact roster — free at muffed.ai.

_Data via nflverse._