Patriots, Week 3 — What Repeats: Eight Loose Balls in Three Games

The charting is in, and the number that repeated is the one this show has been watching since Week 1. Charters marked four of Drake Maye's 25 throws in Jacksonville interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught. That is 16 percent of his throws. As a team New England put four of 31 up for grabs, the second-highest rate of any offense in Week 3, behind only the Chargers. Two of the four were the interceptions. One was a third-and-six incompletion at the Jacksonville 20 in the third quarter, the snap before the missed field goal. The fourth was an 18-yard completion to Mack Hollins on the first snap of the fourth quarter, a ball the charters say a defender should have had. Now the three-week count. Three of 33 in Seattle, one of 22 against Pittsburgh, four of 25 on Sunday. Eight loose balls in 80 throws. All of last season, Maye put 14 in the air on 492. Three weeks, three times above his own rate, and Sunday was the highest of the three.

The loose balls did not come from throwing into crowds. Only two of the 31 throws were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, about six percent and 20-fourth of the 32 offenses this week. What slipped was the accuracy. 20 of the 31 were charted catchable, 65 percent, 20-second in the league. Maye alone was 16 of 25. He was at 73 percent in each of the first two weeks and 76 across last season, so this is the furthest below his own level he has been. The receivers dropped none of the 20 catchable balls. Play-action came on 19 percent of dropbacks, under last season's 24 for the third week running. Maye's three play-action throws went two for seven yards. The other 22 went 12 for a hundred 92. He left the pocket on eight of his 30 dropbacks, scrambles included, and none of the three sacks was charted as his fault.

And Jacksonville barely sent an extra man. Five or more pass rushers on seven of 37 dropbacks, 19 percent, 20-eighth of the 32 offenses this week. The average rush was four men. A week ago Pittsburgh sent five or more on 41 percent of Maye's dropbacks. Last season this offense saw five or more on 31 percent. So the lightest rush New England has faced this year came with the loosest throwing.

The run game reversed again. 23 designed runs gained 64 yards, 2.8 a run, 20-eighth of the 32. Jacksonville showed a light box, six or fewer defenders, on six of the 23, 26 percent, 20-ninth this week against a median of 41. The average box was 6.9, the same as this offense saw across last season. No designed run gained more than seven yards. Three weeks of this now: a light box on 40 percent of runs in Seattle and 2.6 a run, one in eight against Pittsburgh and five a run, 26 percent on Sunday and 2.8. Last season it was 35 percent and about four and a half a run. The Pittsburgh game, five yards a carry into the heaviest fronts, is the odd one of the three, not the pattern.

The pass rush held its line. New England sent five or more pass rushers on 15 of Trevor Lawrence's 31 dropbacks, 48 percent, the fourth-highest rate of any defense this week. That is 44 percent in Seattle, 35 against Pittsburgh, 48 on Sunday, against 28 percent across last season. Three weeks, all above last year. The average rush was 4.7 men. It produced one sack, not charted as Lawrence's fault, and he left the pocket on six of the 31 dropbacks, scrambles included. The ball charting behind it favored Lawrence. 22 of Lawrence's 28 throws were catchable, 79 percent, the ninth-highest rate allowed this week and above the 74 opponents managed against this defense last season. Four were contested, 14 percent. One was interception-worthy, an incompletion toward Jakobi Meyers with 49 seconds left in the half. Marcus Jones's interception was not a charted interception-worthy ball, the second week running New England's interception came on a throw the charters did not flag. Jacksonville's receivers dropped two of the 22 catchable balls.

The run defense is where last week's notebook broke. The notebook said the yards per designed run had landed near four whatever the box count did. Then Jacksonville's 28 designed runs gained a hundred 29 yards, 4.6 a run, the eleventh-most any defense allowed this week. It was 4.2 in Seattle, four even against Pittsburgh, and 4.1 across last season. So this was the first game clear of that line. The box count did not move to explain it. New England showed a light box on eight of the 28, 29 percent, 20-seventh this week, the same 29 percent as against Pittsburgh, after 95 in Seattle. The longest designed run went 15 yards.

Two smaller lines broke too. The screens, which had run at more than double last season's rate for two weeks, fell to two on 37 dropbacks, five percent, 20-first. Last season this offense was at four. And New England went no-huddle on two of 60 snaps, three percent, after none in the first two games. Motion stayed low: 26 of 76 charted plays, 34 percent, 20-eighth this week, the second week under last season's 42.

The stat lines have settled, scored half-PPR. Hollins led the team with 11.7, six catches on nine targets for 87. Romeo Doubs, three of four for 49, 6.4. Rhamondre Stevenson, seven carries for 22 three catches for 16, 5.3. DeMario Douglas had one catch on five targets, and it was the 38-yarder. Maye, 14 of 25 for a hundred 99 and the two interceptions, +4 carries for 18, 3.8. TreVeyon Henderson, eight carries for 23. For Jacksonville, Lawrence scored 19.8 on 19 of 29 for a hundred 82 three touchdowns, Bhayshul Tuten 16 even on 15 carries for 73 and a score, and Meyers 15.9 on seven catches for 64 and a touchdown.

One note on method. Through this week every comparison here is to last season, a different roster answering a different question. From next week the yardstick becomes this team's own season.

The thread, from the top. Last season New England went 14 three with the best passing offense in the league by expected points per play. This season it lost 13 to 10 in Seattle, beat Pittsburgh 20 to three at home, and lost 35 to six in Jacksonville, one and two. Last week's lines, one at a time. Maye's loose balls above his own rate: held, and got worse. His catchable rate below his own level: held, and fell further. Five or more rushers on defense above last season: held. What broke: the run defense's four yards a run became 4.6, and the screens fell back to last year's rate. What reversed a second time: the run game, back under three yards a run into fronts a little lighter than a week ago. The notebook now has one line on top of the others. Eight interception-worthy balls in three games, against a four-man rush on Sunday, is getting harder to file as a figure waiting to come back to normal. New England is at the Bills next.

That's your Patriots — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Patriots show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._