Patriots 29, Bills 26 — Week 4: Down Five, Then 73 Yards

Third and five at the Buffalo 23, a minute 55 left, New England down 26 to 21. Two and a half minutes earlier Keon Coleman had caught a 34-yard touchdown, and the Patriots had started at their own 27. Drake Maye threw deep right for Efton Chism, and Chism caught it in the end zone. By win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, that snap was worth 19 points. By expected points added, what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth, +3.6. Maye found Rhamondre Stevenson for the two-point conversion, another 10 and a half points of win probability, and on Buffalo's fourth snap after the kickoff Woodson intercepted Josh Allen at the New England 19. Patriots 29, Bills 26, in Buffalo, against a team that had not lost. New England is two and two.

The passing game is the turnaround, and the passing game smashed. 38 pass plays, a count that includes one sack, were worth +10 expected points: 269 yards, three touchdown passes, 53 percent of the plays successful. That is +0.3 per play, against −0.3 over the first three weeks, and the first game this season the passing game finished above zero. Nearly all of it came after halftime: 16 first-half pass plays were worth about plus a half, 22 second-half ones about +9 and a half. Romeo Doubs was the chain-mover. Both of New England's fourth-down conversions were throws to him, 15 yards on fourth and three in the first quarter and nine on fourth and two in the third, and both drives ended in his touchdowns, from 14 and from two. Maye was sacked once, after three times in each of the first three games, though that one was a strip-sack Buffalo recovered at its own 30.

The scheme changed shape around him. Play-action came on 14 of 42 dropbacks, 33 percent, sixth-highest of the 30 charted offenses this week, against 21 percent over the first three weeks. Motion came on 63 percent of plays, third-highest of the 30, against 38. Screens nearly disappeared, one in 42 dropbacks after 10 percent before. And Buffalo sent more after Maye than New England had been seeing: five or more pass rushers on 16 of 42 dropbacks, 38 percent, against 27 percent across the first three weeks. Maye's 12 play-action throws went six for 73. His other 25 went 16 for a hundred 96.

The run game leads on a split. 33 rush plays were worth +2.7 expected points, a hundred 45 yards and a touchdown, +0.1 per play against just under zero before. Maye's four scrambles account for 55 of the yards, the longest 26 to the Buffalo one in the second quarter, and Stevenson scored from there. The backs had a harder day: Stevenson 13 carries for 47, TreVeyon Henderson 14 for 42. The charting has 29 designed runs for 90 yards. Buffalo showed six or fewer in the box on eight of them, 28 percent, 20-sixth of the 30 charted offenses, so among the heavier fronts anyone saw this week, and about the 26 percent New England saw over the first three weeks. Third and one late in the third quarter, up four, Stevenson was dropped for a loss of one, −2.2 expected points, and New England punted.

The pass defense allowed 34 Buffalo pass plays +3.7 expected points, and on defense a positive number is the bad direction. That is +0.1 per play, against −0.1 over the first three weeks: 253 yards, one touchdown pass, 35 percent of the plays successful. The change was in the rush. New England sent five or more on nine of 35 dropbacks, 26 percent, twentieth of the 30 charted defenses, after 41 percent over the first three weeks. Allen's throws were catchable 76 percent of the time, above the 71 opponents managed against this defense before. Coleman did most of the damage, six catches for a hundred 16. The two takeaways came at the end of each half: Spillane forced a fumble from Khalil Shakir that Ponder recovered at the New England 36 with 23 seconds left in the half, and Woodson's interception ended it.

The run defense allowed 20 Buffalo rush plays 91 yards, two touchdowns and +2.8 expected points, +0.1 per play against about zero before. The box was lighter than New England's usual: six or fewer on seven of 19 designed runs, 37 percent, after 48 percent across the first three weeks, and those 19 gained 87 yards. James Cook had 49 of his 75 yards on four fourth-quarter carries. Where it held was at the 20: early in the fourth, first and 10 at the New England 20, Ty Johnson for three, Allen dropped for a loss of three by Vildor, Johnson for no gain on third and 10, and Buffalo kicked a field goal. 12 Buffalo red-zone snaps produced two touchdowns.

The turning point came in seven seconds of game clock before the half, tied at 14. Ponder's recovery of the Shakir fumble gave New England the ball at its own 36 with 16 seconds left. On the next snap Maye threw short left for Doubs, and Alford intercepted and returned it 37 yards to the New England nine, −3.1 expected points and 20 points of win probability, the second-biggest swing of the game. Buffalo kicked a field goal and led 17 to 14 at the half. The Patriots answered with a touchdown on the opening drive of the third quarter, and at the end with the 73 yards.

Last week's notebook had eight interception-worthy balls in three games, a throw a defender should have caught, and called the number harder to file as a figure waiting to come back to normal. This week it was zero. Not one of Maye's 37 throws was charted interception-worthy, after eight of 86 by the team before, and the interception he did throw was on a ball the charters did not flag. What did not come back is the accuracy. 22 of the 37 were catchable, 60 percent, the fourth-lowest of the 30 charted offenses, after 70 percent over the first three weeks. Seven were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, 19 percent, against 11 percent before, and the receivers dropped none. So the loose balls went away and the uncatchable ones stayed, on the best passing day of the season. The line for next week's notebook: whether the catchable rate climbs back with the play-action and motion staying this high.

The stat lines, scored half-PPR. Maye led everyone with 26.2: 22 of 37 for 269, three touchdowns and an interception, +8 carries for 54. Doubs, 20.8 on six catches for 58 two touchdowns. Stevenson, 16.9, with a touchdown and the two-point catch. Chism, 11.2. Hunter Henry caught all five of his targets for 62, 8.7. Henderson, 4.2. For Buffalo, Coleman had 20.6 and Allen 18.5.

That's your Patriots — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Patriots show wherever you're listening, so next week's episode lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._