Patriots 45, Raiders 17 — Week 5: Maye 26 of 34, Four Touchdowns

New England beat Las Vegas 45-17 at Gillette Stadium, and the offense finished 6 of its 11 drives in the end zone. Drake Maye completed 26 of 34 passes for 374 yards and four touchdowns, with no interceptions, and ran in a fifth score himself. The Patriots led 21-7 at halftime and 28-7 two minutes into the third quarter. The Raiders' rushing attack never got started: 38 yards on 18 rush plays.

The passing game Smashed, and expected points added (EPA) shows by how much. EPA is what a play is worth given down, distance and field position, against what the situation was already worth. New England's 35 pass plays were worth +29.5 EPA, +0.84 a play, against -0.10 a play through Week 4. Of those plays, 62.9% were successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Maye spread it around: DeMario Douglas caught 4 of 5 for 65 yards and two touchdowns, Kyle Williams 3 of 3 for 91 and one, Hunter Henry 3 of 4 for 44 and one, and Eli Raridon 5 of 5 for 57. The throw that broke it open came on the first drive of the third quarter, up 21-7. An offensive pass interference flag on Williams had pushed New England back to first and 20, and Rhamondre Stevenson gained 1. On second and 19 at the Las Vegas 34, Maye went deep left to Williams for the touchdown, a +4.1 EPA snap that made it 28-7.

The ball was easier to catch than it has been. 26 of Maye's 34 throws were charted catchable, 76.5%, against 66.7% on his 117 throws through Week 4, and his receivers dropped none. Off play-action he went 8 of 10 for 113 yards. Las Vegas sent five or more pass rushers on 9 of 38 dropbacks, 23.7%, below the 30.4% this offense saw through Week 4.

The run game found light boxes and gave its value back. Las Vegas showed six or fewer defenders in the box on 13 of 25 designed runs, 52%, against the 26.7% New England saw through Week 4. Those 25 runs gained 143 yards, after 338 on 101 across the first four weeks. Yet 28 rush plays were worth -2.8 EPA, -0.10 a play against 0.00 through Week 4, with 42.9% successful, and one snap carries most of that: Corey Kiner's fumble in the second quarter, -4.6 EPA on its own. Stevenson ran 13 times for 64 yards and a touchdown, Kiner 6 for 52, and Maye scored on a 3-yard run on third and 1.

The pass defense gave up more than usual and won anyway. Las Vegas was successful on 48.7% of its 39 pass plays, worth +5.1 EPA, +0.13 a play against -0.05 allowed through Week 4; on defense a positive number is the bad direction. Kirk Cousins went 19 of 28 for 243 yards and a touchdown, and Brock Bowers caught 8 of 10 targets for 110 yards and the 13-yard score that tied it 7-7. New England sent five or more on 10 of 40 dropbacks, 25%, down from 37.4% through Week 4, and still sacked Cousins three times, twice by Elijah Ponder and once by Leonard Taylor III. None of the Raiders' throws was charted interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, and the takeaway came off a catch: on fourth and 3 late in the third, down 35-10, Bowers caught a 15-yard pass and Kindle Vildor forced the fumble, recovered by Craig Woodson at the New England 34.

The run defense Smashed by EPA: Las Vegas' 18 rush plays were worth -6.1 EPA, -0.34 a play against +0.06 allowed through Week 4. On defense, a big negative is good. Only 27.8% were successful, and the 17 designed runs gained 35 yards. New England did it with its usual front, six or fewer in the box on 8 of 17 runs, 47.1%, against 45.5% through Week 4. Ashton Jeanty ran 10 times for 27 yards. The stop that counted came with 3:19 left in the half, New England up 14-7 and Las Vegas at the Patriots 27 after a takeaway: first and 10, Tre Tucker ran right tackle and Dre'Mont Jones dropped him for a loss of 11 at the 38. That snap cost the Raiders 5.6 points of win probability, each team's chance of winning at that moment, and pushed them out to a long field goal try.

The game turned on that drive. Up 14-7 with 4:33 left in the half, Kiner was stripped by Adam Butler at his own 37 and Darien Porter recovered at the New England 38, the biggest swing of the game at 10.8 points of win probability. Las Vegas got to the 27, lost 11 on Tucker's run, threw incomplete on third and 14, and Matt Gay's 49-yard field goal hit the left upright. New England took over at its own 39 with 1:56 left: Stevenson for 7, then 20 around left end, and after a sack Henry for 26 to the 11 and Henry again for the 11-yard touchdown with 28 seconds left. The Patriots converted 6 of 11 third downs, scored four touchdowns on 16 red-zone snaps, and the defense stopped 8 of 13 Las Vegas third downs.

The scheme went plainer and it worked. Motion fell to 36.7% of charted plays from 45.3% through Week 4. Play-action held at 26.3% of dropbacks, against 24.3%, and screens ticked up to 4 of 38, 10.5%, from 8.8%. There were no run-pass options, after 5 through Week 4. Maye left the pocket 11 times on 38 dropbacks, after 37 times on 141 through Week 4, and threw 3 balls away.

Last week's notebook asked whether the catchable rate would climb back with play-action and motion staying high. It climbed, to 76.5% from 66.7%, with play-action steady and motion down. The interception-worthy count stayed at zero for a second week, after 8 on Maye's first 117 throws. One number went the other way: 9 of his 34 throws were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, 26.5%, against 13.7% through Week 4. The one to watch next: whether the contested throws come down, and whether the defense goes back to sending extra rushers after sending five or more on only a quarter of Las Vegas' dropbacks.

That's your Patriots, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Patriots on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._