Patriots 24, Bears 30 — Week 7: 321 Yards, Never a Lead

New England lost 30-24 at Chicago on Thursday night and never led. The Bears were up 10-0 after one quarter, and the Patriots got within one score four times, at 10-7, 20-14, 27-21 and 30-24, without drawing level. Andy Borregales's 47-yard field goal made it a six-point game with 42 seconds left, and Rome Odunze took the onside kick. 10 drives produced three touchdowns, a field goal, an interception, a turnover on downs and three three-and-outs.

The passing game Smashed, and success rate leads the case: 56.3% of its 32 pass plays were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, had them at +11.9, +0.37 a play against +0.11 through Week 6. Drake Maye completed 24 of 31 for 321 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, and was sacked twice. Hunter Henry caught all 7 of his targets for 71 yards and A.J. Brown 3 of 6 for 48. The throw of the night came down 20-7 with 3 seconds left in the half: first and 10 at the Chicago 48, Maye threw short right and Rhamondre Stevenson, who caught all 5 of his targets for 93 yards, took it 48 yards for the touchdown, +6.5 EPA and 9.4 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. Eli Raridon's 30-yard touchdown deep right made it 27-21 late in the third.

The run game went backward again, and EPA per play measures it: 17 rush plays worth -2.8 EPA, -0.165 a play against -0.05 through Week 6. Only 29.4% succeeded, for 70 yards. Stevenson's 13-yarder to the Chicago 7 set up Maye's 7-yard touchdown scramble; his other 5 carries gained 9. On the opening drive his 1-yard run on third and 6 left fourth and 5 at the Chicago 45, and Kyler Gordon sacked Maye.

The pass defense was Muffed, and total EPA allowed shows how far it fell: Chicago's 36 pass plays were worth +13.6, +0.38 a play against +0.02 allowed through Week 6. On defense a positive number is the bad direction. Caleb Williams completed 22 of 33 for 308 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Luther Burden III caught all 4 of his targets for 130 yards, and every one came on a scoring drive: 26 yards before a field goal, 58 deep left to the New England 4 before D'Andre Swift's touchdown, then 22 and a 24-yard touchdown late in the half. Colston Loveland caught 7 of 12 for 69 and the 12-yard score that made it 27-14. Leonard Taylor III, Marcus Jones and Christian Barmore had a sack each.

The run defense gave up steady gains and little value, and success rate allowed opens it: 44.8% of Chicago's 29 rush plays succeeded, for 117 yards. They were worth -0.9 EPA, -0.03 a play against -0.06 allowed through Week 6; here a negative number is good, and this was a little less good than usual. Swift ran 22 times for 78 yards and scored from the 4. Up 10-7 in the second, Swift converted fourth and 1 at the New England 20, but Williams was stopped for no gain at the 8 and flagged for an illegal forward handoff, -1.5 EPA, and Chicago settled for a 31-yard field goal.

The game turned in the last 3:32 of the first half. Down 13-7, first and 10 at the Chicago 15, Maye threw deep right for Raridon and D'Marco Jackson intercepted in the end zone: -5.3 EPA and 10.3 points of win probability. Chicago went 80 yards the other way. Charles Woods's defensive holding erased a third-and-4 stop, Gabe Jacas's roughing-the-passer penalty added 15 to a 22-yard catch, and after Jones's sack left third and 17 at the 24, Williams hit Burden short right for the touchdown with 21 seconds left. Stevenson's score got 7 back before the break. Later, down 27-21, two false starts turned third and 1 at the New England 49 into a punt, and after Cairo Santos's 53-yarder hit the right upright, the offense took over at its own 43 and went incompletion, a 10-yard sack, punt. Barmore's sack on third and 5 pushed Chicago back to the 40, and Santos made a 58-yarder for 30-21 with 1:39 left. The offense converted 2 of 7 third downs; the defense stopped 8 of 13, but two of the conversions came on third and 17 and third and 11.

Last week's notebook asked whether play-action would come back as Maye's best tool, and whether a run game at -0.17 a play on 35 attempts would start paying for its volume. Play-action waits for the charting. The run game did not pay: -0.165 a play again, on half the attempts. The one to watch next: whether a pass defense that allowed +0.38 a play here, against +0.02 through Week 6, gets back to its standard, and whether the run game gives a passing game at +0.37 a play any help.

That's your Patriots, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Patriots on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._