Patriots 24, Dolphins 19 — Week 8: 21 Straight After Halftime

New England beat Miami 24-19 on the road on Sunday and moved to 5-3, a week after losing at Chicago. It trailed 13-3 at halftime, then scored touchdowns on three straight second-half possessions, all 21 points coming between 9:30 of the third quarter and 12:50 of the fourth. 11 drives produced those three touchdowns, Andy Borregales's 34-yard field goal, his 40-yard miss, a lost fumble and three punts. The turnover margin was even.

The passing game turned around at halftime, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, shows how far: 12 pass plays before the break were worth -6.0, the 11 after it +10.8. Over the game that was +0.21 a play against +0.15 through Week 7, and 52.2% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Drake Maye completed 16 of 20 for 199 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, 9 of 10 for 146 after the break, and was sacked three times. The first half's cost was one catch: up 3-0, second and 11 at the New England 14, Efton Chism III caught a short pass for 4 and Jacob Rodriguez forced a fumble that Julius Brents recovered at the 19, -4.1 EPA and 16.8 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. After halftime, Kyle Williams's 43-yard touchdown deep right, ruled incomplete and awarded on a New England challenge, made it 13-10, and DeMario Douglas caught all 3 of his targets for 76 yards.

The run game had one of its better days, and success rate leads it: 16 of 33 rush plays succeeded, 48.5%, matching Week 4 for its best rate this season. They gained 134 yards and were worth +1.8 EPA, +0.05 a play against -0.06 through Week 7. Rhamondre Stevenson ran 19 times for 82 yards, his most carries and yards in a game this season, and 10 of those carries succeeded. He opened the go-ahead drive with runs of 7 and 9 and later ran 5 to the Miami 2 to set up the score. The miss was costly: down 13-10, third and 1 at the Miami 22, Corey Kiner lost a yard, -1.6 EPA.

The pass defense gave up a little more than its standard, and total EPA allowed shows how little: Miami's 37 pass plays were worth +4.0, +0.11 a play against +0.08 allowed through Week 7. On defense a positive number is bad. Five sacks kept it near par. Cory Durden and Gabe Jacas had 1.5 each, three came in the first quarter, and Miami's first two drives were three-and-outs. Malik Willis completed 21 of 32 for 211 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. The leaks came late in each half: Christian Elliss's unnecessary-roughness penalty added 15 yards to the drive that ended in Malik Washington's 1-yard touchdown with 11 seconds left before the break, and Kevin Coleman Jr. caught a 35-yard touchdown deep left with 2:10 to go.

The run defense Smashed, and EPA per play allowed measures it: Miami's 23 rush plays were worth -7.0 EPA, -0.30 a play against -0.06 allowed through Week 7; here a negative number is good. Only 7 of the 23 succeeded, 30.4%, for 74 yards, and Ollie Gordon II ran 19 times for 69. The stand that mattered came right after the fumble, with Miami at first and 10 on the New England 19, down 3-0. Milton Williams tackled Gordon for no gain, Elliss and Durden dropped him for a 3-yard loss on second down, and a 9-yard catch on third and 13 left fourth and 4 at the 13. Zane Gonzalez's 31-yard field goal tied it 3-3 instead of handing Miami the lead.

The game turned on fourth down. Down 13-10, the offense had driven from its own 27 to the Miami 22 when Kiner was stopped on third and 1. On fourth and 2 at the 23 with 4:50 left in the third, Maye threw short right to DeMario Douglas; the spot was ruled short, and the review moved it to a first down at the 21, +2.0 EPA and 7.5 points of win probability. Chism caught 8 to the 7, Stevenson ran 5 to the 2, and on third and 2 Maye went in off right tackle for a 17-13 lead with 1:02 left, the end of a 13-play, 73-yard drive. On Miami's next possession, Kevin Byard intercepted Willis at the New England 47. One snap after a 5-yard Stevenson run, Maye threw deep right to DeMario Douglas, who caught it 18 yards downfield and ran the last 30 for a 48-yard touchdown, +4.4 EPA and 11.7 points. After Coleman's touchdown and a failed two-point try, Stevenson fielded the onside kick and ran 5 yards on third and 5 at the Miami 38, upheld on review, and Maye knelt three times.

Last week's notebook asked whether play-action would come back and whether a defense that sent extra rushers on 59% of dropbacks and allowed +0.38 a play would keep sending them. Both answers wait for the charting. What the play-by-play shows is a pass defense back near its standard, +0.11 a play with five sacks. The one to watch next: whether a passing game worth -6.0 EPA before halftime and +10.8 after it can find the second-half version from the first snap.

That's your Patriots, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Patriots on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._