Patriots 27, Packers 45 — Week 9: Four Giveaways at Home

New England lost 45-27 at home to Green Bay on Sunday and fell to 5-4, a week after winning at Miami. The 45 points were the most it has allowed this season, 10 more than at Jacksonville in Week 3. Drake Maye's first pass was intercepted, and the Patriots trailed 17-0 early in the second quarter and 42-14 late in the third. 14 drives produced four touchdowns, four giveaways and no field-goal tries.

The passing game was Muffed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures the fall: -0.21 a play on 45 pass plays against +0.15 through Week 8, its worst since Week 3. Only 40% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Maye completed 21 of 38 for 299 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions, and was sacked four times. On the second snap, second and 9 at his own 26, he threw deep left for Mack Hollins, and Xavier McKinney intercepted at midfield and returned it 36 yards to the 14: -5.9 EPA and 15.0 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, the largest swing of the game. McKinney's second came on a short throw for Eli Raridon down 17-7, and Evan Williams picked off a deep ball for Kyle Williams. Rhamondre Stevenson, Efton Chism III and Hollins caught the touchdowns.

The run game had its best day this season by EPA per play on its fewest rush plays, and success rate leads it: 9 of 16 succeeded, 56.3%, for 94 yards and a touchdown. They were worth +2.1, +0.13 a play against -0.04 through Week 8. Stevenson ran 6 times for 32, including a 19-yarder to the Green Bay 8 that set up Chism's score. Corey Kiner ran 7 times for 53 yards in the fourth and scored from the 4.

The pass defense had its worst game of the season, and total EPA allowed shows how far off it was: Green Bay's 32 pass plays were worth +22.6, +0.71 a play against +0.08 allowed through Week 8. On defense a positive number is bad. Jordan Love completed 23 of 29 for 372 yards and three touchdowns. Matthew Golden caught all 10 of his targets for 164 yards, and Christian Watson caught 7 of 8 for 171. Down 17-7 with 5:05 left in the half, two snaps after Maye's second interception, Love went deep left to Watson for 43 yards to the New England 2. Carlton Davis III was flagged for pass interference, declined, and New England's challenge of the catch failed: +3.3 EPA, and Kaleb Johnson scored on the next snap. Elijah Ponder had 1.5 of the three sacks and Christian Barmore one.

The run defense held its line, and EPA per play allowed measures it: Green Bay's 32 rush plays were worth -4.8, -0.15 a play against -0.09 allowed through Week 8; here a negative number is good. Only 34.4% succeeded, for 129 yards. Barmore stopped Johnson for no gain on third and 1 at the New England 45, and the drive ended in a punt. Milton Williams dropped Johnson for a 4-yard loss on second and 2 at the 29, and Robert Spillane and Christian Elliss stopped Tucker Kraft on a direct snap on third and 1 at the 20; both drives ended in field goals.

The game turned around halftime. Down 24-14, the defense stopped Love's fourth and 3 at the New England 43 with 1:52 left, 6.8 points of win probability. From the Green Bay 46, Maye threw three straight incompletions for DeMario Douglas, and the Patriots punted. Green Bay opened the third with a 70-yard touchdown drive, Karl Brooks's sack ended the next New England drive, and after a 51-yard field goal, Isaiah McDuffie forced Stevenson's fumble after a 4-yard catch and recovered it at the New England 39, -4.8 EPA. Watson scored from 39 on the next snap, and Love's two-point run made it 42-14 with 4:10 left in the third.

Last week's episode asked whether a passing game worth -6.0 EPA before halftime and +10.8 after it at Miami could find the second-half version from the first snap. It did not: the 24 pass plays before halftime came to -5.8 and carried all three interceptions. The one to watch next: whether a passing game that gave the ball away four times gets back to the +0.15 a play it carried through Week 8.

That's your Patriots, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Patriots on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._