Steelers 20, Falcons 13 — Week 1: Watt's Pick-Six and Ten Third-Down Stops

Atlanta never ran a play from scrimmage inside the Pittsburgh 20-yard line on Sunday. Not one snap. The Falcons' only touchdown was a 23-yard throw from outside it, and the other six points were field goals from 51 43, on an afternoon Nick Folk also missed from 54 45. Pittsburgh won 20 to 13 at Acrisure Stadium with an offense that succeeded on a lower share of its snaps than any team in Sunday's early games, and the reason that sentence is not a contradiction is what the defense did on every other snap.

Start there, because by expected points per play it was the best defense any team put on the field in the early games. Atlanta ran 26 pass plays and lost 16 expected points doing it. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, and on defense a big negative number is the good direction — those are points the offense gave back by running the play at all. −16 on 26 is the best pass defense figure of the 16 early-game teams, and eight of the 26 were successful for Atlanta, a 31 percent rate that is also the best. A hundred 43 passing yards allowed. Four sacks: Alex Highsmith two, Watt two. Two interceptions: Jaquan Brisker on a deep ball for Jahan Dotson at the Atlanta 41 with 12 17 left in the half, 18 points of win probability and the Freiermuth touchdown four plays later; and Watt, second and 10 at the Atlanta 44 with 14 16 left in the game, Pittsburgh up 13 to 10, Cooper Rush short right for Bijan Robinson, Watt at the 35 and into the end zone. 24 points of win probability on one snap, the biggest swing of the game. Against the run: 31 carries, a hundred 20 yards, −2 and a half, third of the 16 — the second half was softer, 20 carries for 96 yards, including Robinson for 20 around right end on the last play of the third quarter, two plays before the interception. Atlanta converted two of 12 third downs; stopping 10 of 12 is second-best of the 16.

Now the offense, which is the thing to worry about. 43 pass plays, 221 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, two sacks, and −14 expected points — thirteenth of the 16. 15 of the 43 were successful, a 35 percent rate that is nineteenth. The run game was worse: 18 carries, 61 yards, −4 and a half expected points, five of 18 successful, and both of those are last among the 16. Put together, this offense succeeded on 33 percent of its snaps, the lowest rate of any team in the early games. Three of 12 on third down. The touchdown was Aaron Rodgers to Pat Freiermuth for six on third and three with 10 44 left in the half, and the drive that produced the first field goal got its yards from Rodgers to Michael Pittman for 21 on second and four. The one giveaway was a bad one: second and eight at the Pittsburgh 27, two 48 left in the first, up three to nothing, a short throw to Jaylen Warren for no gain, Cameron Thomas knocked it loose, Divine Deablo recovered at the 25, and Rush hit Robinson for the touchdown three plays later. 17 points of win probability on the fumble.

Two more in the ledger, both fourth downs. Fourth and 13 at the Atlanta 44 with one oh six left in the half, up 13 to seven, Pittsburgh lined up for a field goal and Cameron Johnston threw incomplete. Fourth and three at the Atlanta 45 with four 46 left in the third, Rodgers deep right for DK Metcalf, incomplete. Two turnovers on downs in Atlanta territory, and Chris Boswell's 56-yard try with seven oh four left, up seven, was wide right. Boswell made from 43 28. Six snaps inside the Atlanta 20 produced one touchdown.

Now the part where a Week 1 episode has to be honest about what it is. The ranks in this episode are against the 16 teams that played in the early window on Sunday, not the whole league. What there is, is last year. In 2025 this defense finished eighteenth in the league in expected points allowed per play, sixth with 48 sacks, and fifth with 25 takeaways, and the team won 10 games. On Sunday it was first of 16 against the pass and it took the ball away twice, one of them for a touchdown, which is the takeaways-and-pressure unit and then some. The offense finished fifteenth in expected points per play a year ago and 20-first in passing success rate. On Sunday it was fifteenth of 16 in both. If you want one sentence out of this: the defense won a game the offense did not, and one week does not tell you whether the offense was bad or Atlanta's defense — second in the league in sacks last year — was good, though the honest answer is probably some of each.

Pittsburgh is at New England next Sunday. Watch the run game first, and watch whether the pass rush travels, in that order.

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_Data via nflverse._