Steelers 3, Patriots 20 — Week 2: Four Sacks and Three Points

First and goal at the New England four, five 46 left in the fourth quarter, down 20 to three. Pittsburgh had just gone 88 yards in nine plays from its own eight, the last of them Aaron Rodgers to Jaylen Warren over the short middle for 26, the longest Steelers gain of the day. Then Elijah Ponder sacked Rodgers back at the 17, a loss of 13. On second and 17 Rodgers threw short right for Germie Bernard, and Gabe Jacas intercepted it at the New England 21. Those were the only two snaps Pittsburgh took inside the 20 all afternoon. The Steelers lost 20 to three in New England on Sunday, never led, and by the win probability model never had better than about a 43 percent chance of winning.

Start with the passing game, because the whole result is in it. 44 pass plays produced −21.8 expected points added. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, so that is nearly 22 points of value handed back relative to what those situations were already worth. Of the 28 teams that have played this week, that ranks 20-seventh, and only Atlanta was worse. For the comparison: at the rate this offense passed last season, when it was sixteenth in the league, those same 44 plays would have been worth about +1. Here is the part to repeat to another fan. Five of those 44 plays, the four sacks and the interception, cost 19.8 expected points between them. The other 39 cost two. The passing game's success rate, the share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule, was 41 percent, sixteenth of the 28 so far this week. Snap to snap this was a middle-of-the-pack passing day with a longest completion of 26 yards. The disasters decided it.

So take the sacks one at a time. Third and seven at the New England 22, eight oh five left in the second quarter, down 10 to nothing. Christian Elliss sacked Rodgers and knocked the ball out, it was touched at the New England 30, and Pittsburgh recovered it all the way back at its own 42. Fourth and 43. A drive that had reached the New England 22 ended in a punt, and that one snap cost seven points of win probability. Then the play that ended the game as a contest. 13 46 left in the fourth, down 13 to three, and a holding penalty had just erased a 15-yard completion to DK Metcalf. On second and 21 from the Pittsburgh 30, Christian Barmore sacked Rodgers and forced a fumble, Ponder picked it up at the 19 and ran it in. −7.4 expected points and 10 points of win probability, Pittsburgh's worst play of the day by both measures. On the next series, third and five, Joshua Farmer sacked Rodgers for a loss of 11. Two sacks inside a minute of game clock. Mason Rudolph took the final series, three plays and a punt.

Third down was the other half of it. Two of 12. So far this week only Green Bay has converted at a lower rate, and the five three-and-outs tie Green Bay for the most of the 28 teams that have played. Eight punts. And this was not an offense buried in third and long. Only four of the 12 needed seven yards or more. Seven of the 12 needed between three and six, and all seven snaps that counted failed: four incompletions, a run that came up a yard short, a scramble that came up two short, and the Farmer sack. The two conversions were Rodgers to Bernard for 19 on third and eight in the second quarter, and Rodgers to Pat Freiermuth for nine on third and one with 18 seconds left in the half, which set up Chris Boswell from 56 yards with five seconds to go. He had missed from 57, wide left, in the first quarter. The one fourth-down try worked: fourth and one at the Pittsburgh 39, a direct snap to Freiermuth, two yards up the middle.

The run game's honest number is its success rate: 30 percent, 20-first of the 28 teams that have played this week. 23 rush plays, 91 yards, no touchdowns, and 13 of the 23 gained three yards or fewer. By expected points it was worth −2, which still ranks eleventh so far this week. Two runs reached 10 yards, Travis Homer for 14 and Warren for 10.

The defense did enough to win a normal game. New England's offense scored 13 of the 20. On 25 pass plays the Patriots produced −5.3 expected points, and on defense a negative number is the good direction. Per play, that is fifth of the 28 teams so far this week. Three sacks, two takeaways. Nick Herbig punched the ball out on New England's first drive and Payton Wilson recovered at the Pittsburgh 31. Patrick Queen intercepted Drake Maye at the Pittsburgh 10, on first and 10 from the 33, with the score 10 to three early in the third. On third down the defense got eight stops in 12 tries, tied for eighth of the 28, and New England converted none of its six third downs of seven yards or more, its only help a late face-mask penalty. The cost was four throws. Completions of 29, 30, 29 63 yards made up a hundred 51 of New England's 208 passing yards. The other 10 completions went for 57. The 63 came on first and 10 from the New England eight, after a punt had been downed there, Maye deep right to Romeo Doubs with two 12 left in the third. Eight points of win probability, and it became the field goal that made it 13 to three.

The run defense and the flags are where the first touchdown came from. After Wilson's recovery, a taunting penalty on Jalen Ramsey moved the offense back to its own 16. Three plays, a punt, and a 19-yard return to the Pittsburgh 49. On the New England drive that followed, Ramsey sacked Maye for a loss of 10 on third and five, and a defensive offside on Alex Highsmith wiped it out. Third and one instead, TreVeyon Henderson got the yard, and on the next snap Henderson went through left guard for 39 yards and the touchdown. Two plays after a sack that did not count. New England's 26 rush plays gained a hundred 39 yards and were worth +1.7 expected points, 20-third of 28 this week, with 63 of those yards on two carries.

Now the longer view, for anyone meeting this team this week. Last season the Steelers went 10 seven with a passing game that ranked sixteenth in the league by expected points per play, a run game that ranked tenth, a pass defense seventeenth and a run defense twentieth. In Week 1 they beat Atlanta 20 to 13, and the figures under that win looked like this game. The passing game was −13.9 expected points on 43 pass plays, 20-seventh of 32. The run game was thirtieth. Third down was three of 12. The pass defense was the best in the league that week. So Sunday was not a contradiction of Week 1. It was Week 1 without the win. Across two games that is five conversions on 24 third downs. One caution on the defense: Atlanta's passing offense ranked last in Week 1 and ranks last again so far this week, so holding down a New England passing game that was the league's best last season is the better evidence. Two games do not settle any of it, but the offense has now said the same thing twice.

Pittsburgh is at home against Cincinnati next Sunday. Watch third and medium, and watch whether a sack stays a sack.

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_Data via nflverse._