Steelers, Week 2 — What Repeats: The Rush Plan Flipped

Last week the story on this defense was how rarely it sent more than four. Against Atlanta, Pittsburgh put five or more pass rushers on the field for two of 26 dropbacks, the lowest rate of any defense in the league in Week 1. On Sunday in New England it did it on 11 of the Patriots' 27 dropbacks. That is 41 percent, the eleventh-highest share of the 32 teams this week, against a median of 33, and above the 31 percent this defense sent across all of last season. So the quiet front from Week 1 did not repeat. Drake Maye threw 22 passes. 16 were charted catchable, 73 percent, sixteenth of the 32 and right on the median. One was interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, and that one-in-22 rate is the sixth-highest any of the 32 defenses drew this week. It was the throw Patrick Queen intercepted, so the charting and the takeaway lined up. One throw was contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, the same single contested throw on 22 that Atlanta had last week. None of the sacks was charted as Maye's fault.

The front holds one of the figures on this side that moved the same way twice. New England ran 24 designed runs, and Pittsburgh showed six or fewer defenders in the box on three of them, 12 and a half percent, the second-lowest light-box share of the 32 defenses this week; only Arizona's was lower. Last week against Atlanta it was nine of 31, 29 percent. Across last regular season it was 46 and a half percent. Two games, both far below last year, both in the same direction: this defense is putting bodies in the box. The trouble is what came through them anyway. Those 24 designed runs gained a hundred 19 yards, just under five a run, the fifth-most allowed per designed run of the 32 teams this week, where the median was 3.9. Last week Atlanta managed 3.9 a run against a lighter front than this one, and across last season this defense allowed about 4.3.

Now the offense. Aaron Rodgers threw 39 passes in New England and the charters marked none of them interception-worthy. Pittsburgh was one of 12 offenses with zero this week. Last week it was zero on 40. That is 79 throws across two games without a ball charted for a defender to take, from a quarterback who put 11 interception-worthy balls in the air on 500 throws last season. The one interception he did throw on Sunday was not charted as one.

The same ledger has a cost column, and it has also repeated. 25 of Rodgers's 39 throws were charted catchable, 64 percent. As a team, with Mason Rudolph's one throw counted, Pittsburgh was at 65 percent, tied with the Titans for 20-fifth of the 32, where the median was 73. Last week Rodgers was at 62 and a half. Across all of last season he was at 71. Two games, both well under his own number. The receivers have given some back as well: two drops on Rodgers's 25 catchable balls, eight percent, and as a team the tenth-highest drop rate of the 32 this week, after two on 25 last week, against four percent across last regular season. And only two of his 39 throws were contested, five percent, against 12 percent a year ago; last week it was four of 40.

New England sent five or more pass rushers on 16 of Pittsburgh's 46 dropbacks, 35 percent, fourteenth of the 32 this week. Atlanta did it on 16 percent last week, and across last season this offense saw five or more on 21 percent. Of the four sacks the Recap counted, the charters put none on him as the quarterback's fault. Last week it was none of two. Across last regular season 17 sacks were charged to him. He left the pocket on seven of his 44 dropbacks, scrambles included, and threw three balls away.

Screens came back: seven on 46 dropbacks, 15 percent, the fifth-highest screen rate in the league this week, after three on 43 last week and 14 percent across last season. No-huddle on 13 percent of snaps, second-highest in the league behind only the Eagles, after seven percent last week and 11 last season. Motion fell both weeks, a little in Week 1 and sharply on Sunday: 27 of 86 charted plays, 31 percent, 20-ninth of the 32, after 41 percent last week and 43 last season. Play-action held at 24 percent of dropbacks, 11 of 46, seventeenth and a hair under the median, after 23 last week, both above the 19 percent of last season. What did not repeat is what the fake produced. Last week Rodgers went eight of 10 on play-action for 91 yards. On Sunday his 10 play-action throws went five for 38, and his other 29 went 18 for a hundred 49. Last season his 92 play-action throws averaged about five yards apiece — it is the Week 1 day that looks unusual.

The run game turned last week's puzzle upside down. Against Atlanta, Pittsburgh saw a light box on 12 of 18 designed runs and gained 61 yards. On Sunday New England showed six or fewer on six of 21, 29 percent, tied with Buffalo for 20-third of the 32, under a median of 44 and under the 39 percent this offense saw last season. Against the heavier fronts, the 21 designed runs gained 83 yards, just under four a run, fifteenth this week and on the median. Last week it was 3.4 a run against the lighter ones, 20-eighth in the league. Last season it was about 4.4.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Jaylen Warren led the team with 8.7, 11 carries for 43 two catches for 34 on four targets. Germie Bernard, four catches on eight targets for 35, five and a half. Pat Freiermuth four of five for 32 and Rico Dowdle seven carries for 22 +2 catches for 22, 5.4 each. DK Metcalf drew the most targets on the team, nine, and caught four for 27, 4.7. Rodgers, 23 of 39 for a hundred 87 and the interception, four even. For New England, TreVeyon Henderson led everyone with 13.6, 16 carries for 76 and the touchdown.

A word on what these comparisons are. Through Week 3 this show measures each game against last regular season, because two games are not yet a baseline of their own. Last season was a different roster, a year younger, so the comparison tells you what looks unusual. It does not yet tell you what is true. Week 1 is last week, one game, not this season's rate. Two games settle nothing; they only sort the figures into what moved the same way twice and what did not.

So the thread, from the top, for anyone new. The Recap had last season at 10 seven, with a passing game sixteenth in expected points per play and a pass defense seventeenth. This season Pittsburgh beat Atlanta 20 to 13 and lost 20 to three in New England. Moving the same way twice: Rodgers with no interception-worthy throws and a catchable rate well under his own, drops at about double last season's rate, no sack charged to him in either game, play-action a little above last year, less motion, and a defense packing the box. Reversed: the five-or-more rush, from the lowest rate in the league to above last season's, along with the screens, the no-huddle, the play-action payoff and the fronts the run game saw. What goes in the notebook: a careful quarterback whose ball is landing catchable less often, and a heavy front that still allowed nearly five yards a designed run on Sunday. Two data points each. We are writing them down, not calling them.

That's your Steelers — every game, by the numbers. This is Muffed: we do the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Steelers show wherever you're listening, so next week's recap lands the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._