Steelers 30, Bengals 27 — Week 3: Thirty Points a Week After Three

53 seconds left, Pittsburgh up 30 to 27, and Cincinnati at the Pittsburgh 38 after converting a third and eight — first and 10, and by win probability, the model's read on each team's chance of winning at that moment, the Bengals were at 45 percent. Joe Burrow was sacked by Harmon, the ball came out, and Pittsburgh recovered. 42 points of win probability on one snap, the biggest swing of the game, and by expected points added — what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position, measured against what that situation was already worth — −4.1 for Cincinnati. On defense, a big negative number is the good direction. Two kneel-downs later the Steelers had beaten the Bengals 30 to 27. A week earlier this offense scored three points in New England. Sunday it scored 30, more than Weeks 1 and 2 combined, with three touchdown passes after one in the first two games.

The passing game is where the week turned over. 35 pass plays — that count includes sacks, and there were two — produced +8.6 expected points, 273 net passing yards, three touchdowns and one interception. At the rate Pittsburgh passed over the first two weeks, when it ranked 20-seventh and then thirtieth in the league, those same 35 plays would have been worth about −14. 273 net passing yards is fifth of the 28 teams that have played this week. Some of that is the opponent: Cincinnati's pass defense ranked 20-eighth last season, and at that rate 35 plays would have been worth about +6 — though at the rate the Bengals allowed over the first two weeks, it would have been about −6 and a half. It started on the first snap, Aaron Rodgers short middle to Jaylen Warren for 30, and three plays later Rodgers went deep left to Roman Wilson for a 38-yard touchdown on third and five: +4.5 expected points, 11 points of win probability. The next drive ended with Rodgers to Ben Skowronek for 23 and a 14 to seven lead. The one turnover: up 17 to 10, one 46 left in the half, second and 10 at the Cincinnati 48, short middle for Wilson, intercepted by Jordan Battle — −3.1, 10 points of win probability — and Cincinnati scored on the fifth play of its next drive to tie it at the half.

The run game was among the best of the week by rate. 21 rush plays, a hundred 40 yards, +2.7 expected points — in a dead heat with Buffalo for third by expected points per rush play of the 28 teams so far this week, from an offense that ranked thirtieth running the ball in Week 1. At the rate of the first two weeks, those 21 would have been worth about −3. Warren went 35 yards on first and 10 from the Pittsburgh 35 in the second quarter, up 14 to 10, to set up a field goal. And on third and one or two, Pittsburgh was four for four, three of them on the ground.

That shows up in the drive chart. Seven of 12 on third down, tied for fifth of the 28 teams that have played this week, after three of 12 in Week 1 and two of 12 in Week 2. No three-and-outs, which six other teams also managed so far this week, after four and then five. Nine drives before the kneel-downs: three touchdowns, three field goals, the interception, one punt, and the end of the first half. The limit was the red zone: nine snaps inside the Cincinnati 20, one touchdown, Rodgers to DK Metcalf for six on third and two with two 48 left in the third, 24 to 20. Both fourth-quarter trips inside the 20 reached third and five, both of those third downs ended in a sack, and Chris Boswell kicked field goals from 36 33.

Now the pass defense, and it is the other half of the contradiction. In Week 1 it had the best game in the league by expected points per pass play. Sunday, 38 Cincinnati pass plays were worth +14.7 expected points to the Bengals — on defense a positive number is the bad direction — the second-most allowed by any of the 28 teams that have played this week, behind only Arizona. At the rate it allowed over the first two weeks, those 38 would have been worth about −16; at last season's rate, when it sat near the middle of the league, about +1. Cincinnati went for it on fourth down twice, both fourth and two, and converted both: Burrow to Ja'Marr Chase for 21 at 17 all in the third quarter, and Burrow to Mike Gesicki for a 25-yard touchdown with 13 33 left that made it 26 to 24. It sacked Burrow once all afternoon, and that was the snap that ended the game.

The run defense had the quieter day. 18 Cincinnati rush plays, 83 yards — tied with Jacksonville for eighth-fewest of the 28 teams so far this week — though they were worth +1.1 expected points to the Bengals. Seven of the 18 gained three yards or fewer. The one that mattered was third and two at the Pittsburgh 25, 14 18 left, a run for no gain; the Bengals converted on fourth.

The fourth quarter turned on the kicking teams. With 11 oh four left, down 27 to 24, Pittsburgh punted on fourth and 10 from its own 36, and its win probability sat at 33 percent, the lowest of the game. The punt went 51 yards, the Bengals muffed it at their 16, and Skowronek recovered at the 14: 26 points of win probability, +5.5 expected points. The offense went backward four yards and tied it with a field goal anyway. It had happened on the other punt too: in the third quarter, down 20 to 17, a punt downed at the Cincinnati six came back on roughing the kicker, 15 yards and a first down, 14 and a half points of win probability, and on the seventh snap after it Metcalf scored. Then the go-ahead drive at 27 all, from the Pittsburgh eight with seven 39 left. A Warren run of 87 yards on the first snap came back on a holding penalty. Rodgers found Metcalf for 14, then Darnell Washington short right for 47 on first and 10 — 12 points of win probability — and Warren went 26 to the Cincinnati six. It stalled there, and Boswell's field goal made it 30 to 27 with two 18 left.

For anyone new to this show, here is where that sits. Last season Pittsburgh went 10 seven with a passing game that ranked sixteenth by expected points per play, a run game in the top half, and a third-down offense and a pass defense both near the middle of the league, with a run defense twentieth. Week 1 was a 20 to 13 home win over Atlanta built on the best pass-defense game in the league, while the offense ranked 20-seventh passing and thirtieth running. Week 2 was a 20 to three loss in New England: the passing game thirtieth, two of 12 on third down, five three-and-outs. Sunday flipped both halves. The offense had its best game of the three by every measure here, and the pass defense had its worst. Three games do not settle which version of either is real. The Steelers are two and one, and the win leaned on a strip sack, a muff and a penalty on a punt as much as on the offense that finally showed up.

Pittsburgh is at the Browns on Thursday night, October first.

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_Data via nflverse._