Steelers, Week 3 — What Repeats: The Packed Box Disappeared

Last week's notebook on this defense had one line about the front: it was packing the box. Sunday it did the opposite. Pittsburgh showed six or fewer defenders in the box on 12 of Cincinnati's 16 designed runs. That is 75 percent, the fifth-highest light-box rate of the 32 defenses this week, where the median was 41. Against New England it was one in eight, second-lowest in the league. Against Atlanta, 29. Across last season, 47. The Bengals ran into those lighter fronts for 70 yards on 16 designed runs, 4.4 a run, thirteenth of the 32, and about what this defense allowed per designed run last season. The heavy front a week earlier had allowed nearly five. The lighter one cost no more on the ground.

The pass defense is the other contradiction, and it is the bigger one. 32 of Burrow's 37 throws were charted catchable. 86 percent, tied with Detroit for the second-highest rate any of the 32 defenses allowed this week, behind only Miami. In Week 1 this defense allowed 55 percent, third-lowest in the league. Last season opponents were at 71. None of the 37 throws was charted interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught; Pittsburgh was one of nine defenses that drew zero this week, after drawing about one in 23 throws last season. Six throws were contested, 16 percent, twelfth in the league, up from about four percent in each of the first two weeks. The rush plan was not what changed. Pittsburgh sent five or more pass rushers on 12 of 40 dropbacks, 30 percent, thirteenth this week and within a point of last season's rate, after eight percent in Week 1 and 41 in Week 2. It got one sack, the one that ended the game, and the charting does not put that one on Burrow.

Now the offense, where the fake paid. Rodgers threw eight play-action passes and completed six for a hundred 28 yards, 16 a throw. His other 25 throws went 13 for a hundred 64. The 23-yard touchdown to Ben Skowronek at the end of the first quarter, the six-yard touchdown to DK Metcalf on third and two, and the 47-yarder to Darnell Washington on the go-ahead drive were all off play-action. The rate was ordinary: eight of 36 dropbacks, 22 percent, 20-second in the league. In New England the week before, 10 play-action throws went five for 38. Same fake, different result.

His ball landed catchable at about his own rate again. 24 of 33 throws, not counting the spike, were charted catchable, 73 percent, thirteenth this week, after 61 65 in the first two weeks, both in the bottom eight of the league, and 71 across last season. So the notebook's careful quarterback with a low catchable rate held for exactly two weeks. What held for a third is the drops. His receivers dropped three of the 24 catchable balls, one in eight, the second-highest drop rate of the 32 this week behind Tampa Bay, after eight percent in each of the first two weeks and under four across last season. Two of the three were Michael Pittman's. The third was the interception: charters marked the throw to Roman Wilson catchable and the play a drop, and Jordan Battle caught what came off it. The interception-worthy streak ended too, just not on that play. Rodgers's hundred and seventh throw of the season, not counting a spike, was his first charted interception-worthy, deep right for Pat Freiermuth with 11 21 left in the fourth quarter, incomplete. Both sacks came on third and five inside the Cincinnati 20 in the fourth quarter, and the charting puts the second on Rodgers, the first sack charged to him this season. Three of his 33 throws were contested, nine percent, in the bottom half of the league, a third straight week under his 12 percent of last season.

The run game had the best rate in the league. 20 designed runs, a hundred 28 yards, 6.4 a run, first of the 32 this week. Cincinnati showed six or fewer in the box on 13 of the 20, 65 percent, sixth-highest, after 29 percent in New England and 67 against Atlanta. Jaylen Warren's 35-yarder in the second quarter came against seven in the box. His 26-yarder to the Cincinnati six in the fourth, the one that set up the winning field goal, came against six. Motion stayed low: 29 of 77 charted plays, 38 percent, 20-seventh, a third week under last season's 43. No-huddle on 11 percent of snaps, seventh in the league.

The stat lines have settled, so here they are, scored half-PPR. Rodgers led the team with 22.7: 19 of 34 for 292, three touchdowns and the interception, +3 carries for 10. Warren, 17 carries for a hundred 27 three catches on four targets for 49, 19.1. Wilson caught three of six for 60 and the 38-yard score, 13 and a half. Metcalf, three of five for 31 and a touchdown, 10.6. Skowronek's one catch was the 23-yard touchdown, 8.8. Washington caught three of four for 67, 8.2. For Cincinnati, Ja'Marr Chase went nine of 12 for 98 and a touchdown, 20.3, and Tee Higgins six of seven for 90 and a score, 18.

One note on the yardstick. Every "last season" above is a different Steelers roster, and this is the last week the show measures against it. From here the comparison is Pittsburgh against its own games this season.

The thread, from the top, for anyone new. Pittsburgh went 10 seven last season. This season it beat Atlanta 20 to 13 at home, lost 20 to three in New England, and beat Cincinnati 30 to 27 at home. Last week's notebook had two lines. A careful quarterback whose ball lands catchable less often: Rodgers has one interception-worthy ball on a hundred 12 throws this season, but the catchable rate came back to his own number. A heavy front that still allowed nearly five a run: the front went light and allowed 4.4. Both broke, and the week was better for it. What goes in now: drops at double last season's rate or more for a third straight week, contested throws under last season's for a third straight week, and a play-action package that produced two touchdowns and the 47-yarder on a rate that ranked 20-second. The Steelers are two and one, and they are at the Browns on Thursday.

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_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._