Steelers 34, Colts 22 — Week 5: Jaylen Warren Scores From 80 and 50

Pittsburgh beat Indianapolis 34-22 at home, and it won by scoring touchdowns while the Colts kicked field goals. The Steelers' 10 drives produced 4 touchdowns, 2 field goals and no turnovers. The Colts reached the red zone on 10 snaps and scored one touchdown there, settling for 5 field goals. Jaylen Warren ran 15 times for 101 yards and caught all 6 of his targets for 87, and scored from 80 and 50 yards out.

The passing game was Smashed by expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth. Its 32 pass plays were worth +4.3 EPA, +0.13 a play, against -0.14 a play through Week 4. Only 34.4% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for, so the value came in chunks. Aaron Rodgers went 22 of 31 for 235 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. The first chunk was the biggest. Down 3-0 with 8:57 left in the first quarter, first and 10 at his own 20, Rodgers threw short right to Warren, who went the full 80 yards for the touchdown: +5.7 EPA and 20.2 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. Pat Freiermuth caught 5 of 7 for 44 yards and both of the other touchdowns, from 1 and 17 yards. Germie Bernard led the wide receivers with 6 catches on 9 targets for 80.

The charting says Rodgers threw a cleaner ball than he had all season. 26 of his 31 throws were catchable, 83.9%, against 65.1% through Week 4, and his receivers dropped one. The fake almost disappeared: 3 play-action dropbacks in 33, 9.1%, after 20.6%, and he completed 1 of those 3 for 7 yards. Without it he went 21 of 28 for 228. Indianapolis sent five or more rushers on 6 of 33 dropbacks, 18.2%, against the 27.1% this offense saw through Week 4.

The run game was the night's other smash, and its success rate leads: 60% of 20 rush plays were successful, worth +8.4 EPA. Per play that is +0.42, against -0.03 through Week 4. Those 20 runs gained 129 yards. It came against heavy fronts: Indianapolis showed six or fewer in the box on 3 of 19 designed runs, 15.8%, after the 62.8% this offense saw through Week 4, and the 19 designed runs still gained 123 yards, after 364 on 78 across the first four weeks. Warren's 50-yard touchdown is the turning point below.

The pass defense held a quarterback to 267 yards and no touchdowns without taking the ball away. Indianapolis' 45 pass plays were worth -0.15 EPA, flat to the play, against +0.02 a play allowed through Week 4; on defense a negative number is the good direction. Daniel Jones completed 24 of 44. 14 of his 44 throws were contested, a receiver and a defender arriving together, 31.8%, against the 15.8% this defense allowed through Week 4. Two were charted interception-worthy, a ball a defender should have caught, and neither was caught. The leaks came off the fake: Jones went 9 of 12 for 107 yards on play-action, against 15 of 32 for 160 without it. Pittsburgh sent five or more on 10 of 45 dropbacks, 22.2%, under its 28.5% through Week 4. Cameron Heyward had a sack on second and 2 with 6:00 left, up 31-22, and at 4:17 Jones' fourth-and-17 throw deep left for Josh Downs fell incomplete with Payton Wilson on the play.

The run defense won the down-to-down fight and lost one snap at the goal line. Indianapolis' 24 rush plays gained 66 yards, and only 33.3% were successful. They were worth +0.38 EPA, +0.02 a play against -0.03 allowed through Week 4; on defense a positive number is the bad direction, so this was slightly worse than usual by value even as the yards stayed low. Jonathan Taylor ran 15 times for 45. Before halftime, third and 1 at the Pittsburgh 1, Yahya Black and Patrick Queen stopped Jones for no gain. On fourth and 1 Tyler Warren went up the middle for the Colts' only touchdown. In the third, second and 2 at the 2, Wilson and Queen dropped Taylor for a 2-yard loss, and Indianapolis kicked a field goal. Pittsburgh played six or fewer in the box on 10 of 24 designed runs, 41.7%, close to its 40.4% through Week 4.

The game turned on two snaps in the third quarter. Pittsburgh led 17-16 with 7:54 left, fourth and 1 at its own 49. The ball was snapped directly to Freiermuth, who went up the middle for the yard, worth 7 points of win probability. On the next snap Warren ran through left guard for 50 yards and the touchdown, 24-16. The Colts got back within 24-22, and the answer was a drive of conversions: third and 2, Rodgers to Bernard for 25; fourth and 1, Warren for a yard; third and 6 at the 17 with 6:40 left, Rodgers to Freiermuth short middle for the touchdown and 31-22. Pittsburgh converted 4 of 11 third downs and stopped Indianapolis on 11 of 15.

The scheme went to screens and short throws. Screens rose to 6 of 33 dropbacks, 18.2%, from 10%, while play-action fell to 9.1%. Run-pass options dropped to 3, 5.8% of snaps, from 8.9%. Motion held near its baseline at 40.8% of charted plays, against 39.1%. Rodgers left the pocket 7 times in 33 dropbacks.

Last week's notebook asked whether five sacks the charters put on Rodgers, and two interception-worthy throws, were one opponent or a quarterback holding the ball. This week said one opponent. The charters put none of the sacks on him, after 6 through Week 4, and he threw one interception-worthy ball in 31, after 3 in his first 152. The new line is the contested rate, 8 of 31 throws, 25.8%, after 11% through Week 4. The one to watch next: whether defenses keep loading the box against Warren after this, and whether the fake comes back to an offense that barely used it.

That's your Steelers, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Steelers on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse. Charting: FTN Data via nflverse._