Steelers 26, Buccaneers 19 — Week 6: Down 16-3, Won on Bernard in OT

Pittsburgh beat Tampa Bay 26-19 in overtime on the road on Sunday, and the pass defense carried an offense that trailed 16-3 after three quarters. Darnell Washington's 5-yard touchdown early in the fourth started the comeback. Chris Boswell kicked from 39, 58 and 20, the last after Jamel Dean's 40-yard interception return. Chase McLaughlin forced overtime from 53, and Germie Bernard's 6-yard catch won it. Pittsburgh took the ball away twice and gave it away once, a margin of +1.

The passing game played below its own standard and still won the game late, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, keeps the score. Its 52 pass plays were worth -13.8 EPA, -0.26 a play against -0.10 through Week 5, and 36.5% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Aaron Rodgers completed 33 of 49 for 253 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, and was sacked five times. The interception came on first and 10 at the Pittsburgh 36 in the first quarter, a throw for Washington. DK Metcalf caught 11 of 15 targets for 93 and Bernard 11 of 12 for 87. The comeback started on the fourth quarter's first snap, down 16-3: third and 16, Metcalf for 17 to the Tampa Bay 29, +3.0 EPA. Bernard took the next one to the 5, and Washington scored on second and 1.

The run game was quiet, and its success rate shows it: 38.1% of 21 rush plays succeeded, worth -0.9 EPA, -0.04 a play against +0.06 through Week 5, for 90 yards. Jaylen Warren ran 14 times for 50 and Rico Dowdle 7 for 40, including 6 on second and 5 to the Tampa Bay 9 in overtime.

The pass defense won the game, and EPA allowed per play tells by how much: Tampa Bay's 48 pass plays were worth -21.8 EPA, -0.45 a play against +0.02 allowed through Week 5; on defense, a negative number is good. Only 27.1% succeeded. Jalon Daniels completed 22 of 43 for 164 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions, and was sacked five times, twice each by Jalen Ramsey and Nick Herbig and once by Yahya Black. Ramsey's first, on third and 9 on the opening series, cost 15 yards. Daylen Everette intercepted a throw for Emeka Egbuka on third and 7 early in the fourth, down 16-10, and the offense turned it into a field goal. Dean was credited with six passes defended. The last snap was Ramsey's: fourth and 8 at the Pittsburgh 48 with 1:06 left in overtime, up 26-19, he sacked Daniels for 11 yards at the Tampa Bay 41, and it was over. That sack was worth 14.1 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win.

The run defense held to its usual level, and EPA per play shows it: Tampa Bay's 25 rush plays were worth -0.4 EPA, -0.02 a play, against -0.02 allowed through Week 5; here, too, negative is good. Bucky Irving ran 19 times for 46. Herbig and Cameron Heyward dropped him for 5 at the Pittsburgh 32 after the first-quarter interception, and Tampa Bay settled for a field goal. Daniels found 39 yards on 4 carries, including 10 on fourth and 9 in overtime.

The game turned with 1:46 left in regulation, tied 16-16. On second and 10 at the Tampa Bay 37, Daniels threw short right for Egbuka, and Dean intercepted at the 43 and returned it 40 yards to the 3 before Daniels pushed him out. That snap was worth -6.9 EPA to Tampa Bay and 45 points of win probability, the largest swing of the game. The offense could not finish it: Metcalf's third-and-1 target at the 1 fell incomplete, and Boswell kicked from 20. In overtime Warren lost 3 on second and 10 at the Pittsburgh 30, and on third and 13 Rodgers hit Metcalf for 16, +2.6 EPA and 24.9 points of win probability. Bernard scored on second and 6 from the 6. Pittsburgh converted 5 of 15 third downs and scored 2 touchdowns on 11 red-zone snaps; the defense got off the field on 13 of Tampa Bay's 19 third downs.

The one to watch next: whether a pass defense that allowed -0.45 a play here, against +0.02 through Week 5, keeps getting home, and whether an offense with 2 touchdowns on 11 red-zone snaps can stop leaning on Boswell.

That's your Steelers, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Steelers on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._