Steelers 16, Saints 10 — Week 7: Wilson's Pick, Boswell's Three

Pittsburgh beat New Orleans 16-10 in Paris on Sunday for its third straight win, and went to 5-2 without trailing at any point. Chris Boswell kicked field goals from 28, 47 and 39, and Darnell Washington caught the only touchdown, from 4 yards. Seven drives produced that touchdown, the three field goals, two punts, one of them after a three-and-out, and a last possession that started with 5:52 left and ran out the clock. The turnover margin was +1.

The passing game beat its own standard, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, measures the gain: 33 pass plays worth +2.1 EPA, +0.06 a play against -0.13 through Week 6. Only 42.4% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for, so most of the value sat in one throw. Aaron Rodgers completed 19 of 30 for 212 yards and a touchdown without an interception, and was sacked three times. Tied 3-3 with 8:34 left in the second quarter, one snap after a deep miss, third and 14 at the Pittsburgh 45: Rodgers went deep left to DK Metcalf for 51 yards to the New Orleans 4, +5.1 EPA and 20.9 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, the largest swing of the game. Washington scored two plays later. Metcalf caught 2 of 6 for 56; Rico Dowdle caught all 6 of his targets for 45.

The run game had its biggest day of the season, and success rate leads it: 50% of 28 rush plays succeeded, for 150 yards, the most in any game this season. They were worth +5.4 EPA, +0.19 a play against +0.04 through Week 6. Jaylen Warren ran 18 times for 101 yards and converted 5 of his 6 third-down carries, including a 15-yarder on third and 1 at the Pittsburgh 49 with 1:08 left in the half that set up the 47-yard field goal. His 29-yarder on the second snap was the game's longest run. Dowdle ran 9 times for 41.

The pass defense gave up more than usual, and total EPA allowed shows how much: New Orleans's 40 pass plays were worth +10.6, +0.26 a play against -0.09 allowed through Week 6. On defense a positive number is bad, and 55% of those plays succeeded. Tyler Shough completed 30 of 38 for 278 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Alvin Kamara caught all 7 of his targets for 57 yards and Devaughn Vele all 5 of his for 54, three of Vele's on third or fourth down. What held was the end of drives: 1 touchdown on 13 red-zone snaps. T.J. Watt's 7-yard sack on second and 10 at the Pittsburgh 18 left third and 17 and a field goal, and Patrick Queen's 8-yard sack on third and 10 in the fourth forced the last Saints punt.

The run defense Smashed, and EPA per play allowed says by how much: New Orleans's 17 rush plays were worth -7.1 EPA, -0.42 a play against -0.02 allowed through Week 6; here a negative number is good. They gained 18 yards, the fewest Pittsburgh has allowed in a game this season, and 2 of the 17 succeeded. Kamara ran 6 times for 5 yards and Kendre Miller 8 for 6. Down 10-3 late in the half with first and goal at the 2, Shough was held to a yard, then to nothing, and Queen stopped Miller at the 1 on third down before Vele's fourth-down touchdown. In the fourth, Keeanu Benton and Watt dropped Kamara for a 5-yard loss at the Pittsburgh 32, and the drive ended in a 52-yard miss.

The game turned midway through the third. Up 13-10, the defense had given up 14 plays and three third-down conversions on the Saints' first drive of the half when, on second and 7 at the Pittsburgh 10 with 7:43 left, Shough threw short right for Chris Olave and Payton Wilson intercepted at the 11, returning it 18 yards: -6.2 EPA for New Orleans and 20.8 points of win probability. The offense answered with 13 plays and Boswell's 39-yarder for 16-10, converting third downs on Pat Freiermuth's 11-yard catch, Warren's 5-yard run and Brandon Smith's 20-yard catch. From its own 35 with 5:52 left, Dowdle ran 16, Rodgers scrambled 8 on third and 6 at the New Orleans 34, and the Saints spent their timeouts. Boswell's 37-yarder was wiped off by an offside penalty that gave Pittsburgh a first down, and Rodgers knelt twice. The offense converted 10 of 16 third downs.

Last week's notebook asked whether a pass rush that got five sacks would keep getting home, and whether an offense with 2 touchdowns on 11 red-zone snaps could stop leaning on Boswell. The rush got there twice, through Watt and Queen; the blitz count waits for the charting. The red zone did not change: 1 touchdown on 10 snaps, and Boswell kicked three more. The one to watch next: whether a pass defense that allowed +0.26 a play here, against -0.09 through Week 6, gets back to its standard.

That's your Steelers, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Steelers on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._