Commanders 22, Eagles 24 — Week 1: 20 First Downs, Two Points Short

Washington lost in Philadelphia on Sunday by two points, 24 to 22, with 20 first downs. The Eagles had 10. Washington ran 68 offensive snaps to Philadelphia's 51, held the ball for 33 minutes and 20 seconds, went two for two on fourth down, scored a touchdown on every one of its three trips inside the Philadelphia 20, and never turned the ball over. The two points live in three plays that were not from scrimmage. Jalen Carter blocked Drew Stevens's extra point with one 53 left in the first half, so a 14-to-10 game was 14 to nine. Stevens missed a 54-yard field goal wide right with six 51 left in the third quarter, the single worst play of the game for either side by expected points. And with one oh one to play, after Antonio Williams's one-yard touchdown catch on third and goal made it 24 to 22, Jayden Daniels's two-point pass to John Bates was complete and short. 13 points of win probability on that snap, the largest negative swing in the game for either offense. The onside kick went to DeVonta Smith.

Start with the passing game, because it was two different halves and the second one is the reason this was close. 36 pass plays, a hundred 64 passing yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, one sack. +4 expected points added on the day, tenth of the 28 teams whose games were in the books by Sunday evening. Expected points added is what a snap was worth given the down, the distance and the field position. In the first half, 16 pass plays produced −4 expected points and four of the 16 were successful, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. In the second half, 20 pass plays produced +7. In the fourth quarter alone, 13 pass plays produced +11, and eight of the 13 were successful. The throw that changed the afternoon was third and 14 at the Philadelphia 47 with 12 12 left, down 17 to nine, a false start having just turned third and nine into third and 14: Daniels deep left to Williams, pushed out at the 14, 33 yards, 12 points of win probability. Three snaps later, third and six at the 10, Daniels short middle to Stefon Diggs for the touchdown, 17 to 16. The last drive was 12 plays and 63 yards over five minutes and one second, and it went through a fourth and two at the 10: Daniels short right to Terry McLaurin for six, then Kaytron Allen to the one, then the Williams touchdown. For the day, 13 of the 36 pass plays were successful, 36 percent, 20-third of the 28; the fourth quarter carried the average.

The run game was the more consistent unit. 32 rushing plays, a hundred 32 yards, one touchdown, roughly zero expected points added, and 16 of the 32 successful, a 50 percent rate that ties for fourth-best of the week. In the second quarter, 11 rushing plays gained 65 yards and eight of the 11 were successful, and the 12-play, 67-yard touchdown drive at the end of the half ran through a fourth and one at the Philadelphia 32 that Jacory Croskey-Merritt converted up the middle for four, and ended with Croskey-Merritt scoring from the one with one 56 left. Washington's longest designed run all day was 11 yards; its two longest rushing plays were Daniels scrambles of 14 13. The third-down ledger has a hole in it: Washington converted five of 15, and the conversions came at 10, one, 14, six and one yards to go, while two of the four third downs with one or two yards to go failed.

The defense allowed 24, and it allowed them in four plays. Philadelphia ran 28 pass plays for 203 yards and three touchdowns, +1 expected point allowed. On defense a big negative number is the good direction, and +1 allowed is eighteenth of the 28 per pass play, but 10 of the 28 were successful, a 36 percent rate that ranks among the five best of the week. Three sacks for 21 yards, Frankie Luvu, Sonny Styles and Odafe Oweh, and two of the three came on third down and ended drives. Philadelphia managed 10 first downs. And it did not matter, because of four snaps: Jalen Hurts deep right to Dontayvion Wicks for 64 on second and four from the Philadelphia 30 in the first quarter, which set up the Dallas Goedert touchdown that gave the Eagles the lead for good; Saquon Barkley for 42 behind the right guard on third and two from the Philadelphia 46 with eight 10 left in the half, which set up the Wicks touchdown two snaps later; Hurts scrambling 22 yards on third and 18 from the Philadelphia 31 with eight oh three to play; and three snaps after that, Hurts to Goedert for 43 and the touchdown on third and six. Five of Philadelphia's six third-down conversions gained 17 yards or more. On the ground, 23 rushing plays allowed for a hundred 38 yards, +2 expected points allowed, 20-second of the 28, and eight of the 23 successful, which is eighth-best; the Barkley run is 42 of those yards. Zero takeaways, and there was one fumble in the game and Washington's own offense recovered it.

Two things in the ledger that were not good. The unconverted points were one blocked extra point, one missed field goal, and one failed two-point try. And Diggs drew a 15-yard unsportsmanlike-conduct penalty after his own touchdown, which pushed the extra point back to a 48-yard try; Stevens made it, so it cost nothing, but it was the kind of thing that decides a two-point game.

Now the part where a Week 1 episode has to be honest about what it is. The ranks in this episode are against the 28 teams that had played by Sunday evening, not the whole league, and one game is one game. What there is, is last year. In 2025 this team went five and 12 with an offense that ranked eighteenth in the league in expected points per play, tenth in the rate of plays it made succeed, eighth on the ground, twentieth through the air, and fourth in the league at turning red-zone trips into touchdowns. The defense finished thirtieth in expected points allowed per play, 20-seventh in the rate of plays it allowed to succeed, and thirtieth in takeaways, with 11. On Sunday the offense was three for three inside the 20 and succeeded on half its runs, which is the 2025 offense. The defense allowed a 36 percent success rate through the air and took the ball away zero times, which is half of the 2025 defense and half not. A defense that ranked thirtieth held the Eagles to 10 first downs, and gave up four plays that decided the game. Which of those is the unit is the season's question, and one game does not answer it.

Washington is at Dallas next Sunday. Watch the first-half passing game, and watch whether the defense can keep the long play off the board.

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_Data via nflverse._